Estimation of the national disease burden of influenza-associated severe acute respiratory illness in Kenya and Guatemala : a novel methodology

Background: Knowing the national disease burden of severe influenza in low-income countries can inform policy decisions around influenza treatment and prevention. We present a novel methodology using locally generated data for estimating this burden. Methods and Findings: This method begins with calculating the hospitalized severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) incidence for children <5 years old and persons ≥5 years old from population-based surveillance in one province. This base rate of SARI is then adjusted for each province based on the prevalence of risk factors and healthcare-seeking behavior. The percentage of SARI with influenza virus detected is determined from provincial-level sentinel surveillance and applied to the adjusted provincial rates of hospitalized SARI. Healthcare-seeking data from healthcare utilization surveys is used to estimate non-hospitalized influenza-associated SARI. Rates of hospitalized and non-hospitalized influenza-associated SARI are applied to census data to calculate the national number of cases. The method was field-tested in Kenya, and validated in Guatemala, using data from August 2009–July 2011. In Kenya (2009 population 38.6 million persons), the annual number of hospitalized influenza-associated SARI cases ranged from 17,129–27,659 for children <5 years old (2.9–4.7 per 1,000 persons) and 6,882–7,836 for persons ≥5 years old (0.21–0.24 per 1,000 persons), depending on year and base rate used. In Guatemala (2011 population 14.7 million persons), the annual number of hospitalized cases of influenza-associated pneumonia ranged from 1,065–2,259 (0.5–1.0 per 1,000 persons) among children <5 years old and 779–2,252 cases (0.1–0.2 per 1,000 persons) for persons ≥5 years old, depending on year and base rate used. In both countries, the number of non-hospitalized influenza-associated cases was several-fold higher than the hospitalized cases. Conclusions: Influenza virus was associated with a substantial amount of severe disease in Kenya and Guatemala. This method can be performed in most low and lower-middle income countries

Effect of Geographical Access to Health Facilities on Child Mortality in Rural Ethiopia: A Community Based Cross Sectional Study

BACKGROUND: There have been few studies that have examined associations between access to health care and child health outcomes in remote populations most in need of health services. This study assessed the effect of travel time and distance to health facilities on mortality in children under five years in a remote area of rural north-western Ethiopia. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This study involved a randomly selected cross sectional survey of 2,058 households. Data were collected during home visits to all resident women of reproductive age (15-49 years). A geographic information system (GIS) was used to map all households and the only health centre in the district. The analysis was restricted to 2,206 rural children who were under the age of five years during the five years before the survey. Data were analysed using random effects Poisson regression. 90.4% (1,996/2,206) of children lived more than 1.5 hours walk from the health centre. Children who lived ≥1.5 hrs from the health centre had a two to three fold greater risk of death than children who lived <1.5 hours from the health centre (children with travel time 1.5-<2.5 hrs adjusted relative risk [adjRR] 2.3[0.95-5.6], travel time 2.5-<3.5 hrs adjRR 3.1[1.3-7.4] and travel time 3.5-<6.5 hrs adjRR 2.5[1.1-6.2]). CONCLUSION: Distance to a health centre had a marked influence on under five mortality in a poor, rural, remote area of Ethiopia. This study provides important information for policy makers on the likely impact of new health centres and their most effective location in remote areas

Safety and Immunogenicity of Neonatal Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccination in Papua New Guinean Children: A Randomised Controlled Trial

Background: Approximately 826,000 children, mostly young infants, die annually from invasive pneumococcal disease. A 6-10-14-week schedule of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) is efficacious but neonatal PCV may provide earlier protection and better coverage. We conducted an open randomized controlled trial in Papua New Guinea to compare safety, immunogenicity and priming for memory of 7-valent PCV (PCV7) given in a 0-1-2-month (neonatal) schedule with that of the routine 1-2-3-month (infant) schedule. Methods: We randomized 318 infants at birth to receive PCV7 in the neonatal or infant schedule or no PCV7. All infants received 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV) at age 9 months. Serotype-specific serum IgG for PCV7 (VT) serotypes and non-VT serotypes 2, 5 and 7F were measured at birth and 2, 3, 4, 9, 10 and 18 months of age. Primary outcomes were geometric mean concentrations (GMCs) and proportions with concentration ≥0.35 µg/ml of VT serotype-specific pneumococcal IgG at age 2 months and one month post-PPV.Results: We enrolled 101, 105 and 106 infants, respectively, into neonatal, infant and control groups. Despite high background levels of maternally derived antibody, both PCV7 groups had higher GMCs than controls at age 2 months for serotypes 4 (p<0.001) and 9V (p<0.05) and at age 3 months for all VTs except 6B. GMCs for serotypes 4, 9V, 18C and 19F were significantly higher (p<0.001) at age 2 months in the neonatal (one month post-dose2 PCV7) than in the infant group (one month post-dose1 PCV7). PPV induced significantly higher VT antibody responses in PCV7-primed than unprimed infants, with neonatal and infant groups equivalent. High VT and non-VT antibody concentrations generally persisted to age 18 months. Conclusions: PCV7 is well-tolerated and immunogenic in PNG neonates and young infants and induces immunologic memory to PPV booster at age 9 months with antibody levels maintained to age 18 months

New Approaches to Preventing, Diagnosing, and Treating Neonatal Sepsis

Karen Edmond and Anita Zaidi highlight new approaches that could reduce the burden of neonatal sepsis worldwide

A Template-Dependent Dislocation Mechanism Potentiates K65R Reverse Transcriptase Mutation Development in Subtype C Variants of HIV-1

Numerous studies have suggested that the K65R reverse transcriptase (RT) mutation develops more readily in subtype C than subtype B HIV-1. We recently showed that this discrepancy lies partly in the subtype C template coding sequence that predisposes RT to pause at the site of K65R mutagenesis. However, the mechanism underlying this observation and the elevated rates of K65R development remained unknown. Here, we report that DNA synthesis performed with subtype C templates consistently produced more K65R-containing transcripts than subtype B templates, regardless of the subtype-origin of the RT enzymes employed. These findings confirm that the mechanism involved is template-specific and RT-independent. In addition, a pattern of DNA synthesis characteristic of site-specific primer/template slippage and dislocation was only observed with the subtype C sequence. Analysis of RNA secondary structure suggested that the latter was unlikely to impact on K65R development between subtypes and that Streisinger strand slippage during DNA synthesis at the homopolymeric nucleotide stretch of the subtype C K65 region might occur, resulting in misalignment of the primer and template. Consequently, slippage would lead to a deletion of the middle adenine of codon K65 and the production of a -1 frameshift mutation, which upon dislocation and realignment of the primer and template, would lead to development of the K65R mutation. These findings provide additional mechanistic evidence for the facilitated development of the K65R mutation in subtype C HIV-1

A Mixed Methods Study of a Health Worker Training Intervention to Increase Syndromic Referral for Gambiense Human African Trypanosomiasis in South Sudan

BACKGROUND: Active screening by mobile teams is considered the most effective method for detecting gambiense-type human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) but constrained funding in many post-conflict countries limits this approach. Non-specialist health care workers (HCWs) in peripheral health facilities could be trained to identify potential cases for testing based on symptoms. We tested a training intervention for HCWs in peripheral facilities in Nimule, South Sudan to increase knowledge of HAT symptomatology and the rate of syndromic referrals to a central screening and treatment centre. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We trained 108 HCWs from 61/74 of the public, private and military peripheral health facilities in the county during six one-day workshops and assessed behaviour change using quantitative and qualitative methods. In four months prior to training, only 2/562 people passively screened for HAT were referred from a peripheral HCW (0 cases detected) compared to 13/352 (2 cases detected) in the four months after, a 6.5-fold increase in the referral rate observed by the hospital. Modest increases in absolute referrals received, however, concealed higher levels of referral activity in the periphery. HCWs in 71.4% of facilities followed-up had made referrals, incorporating new and pre-existing ideas about HAT case detection into referral practice. HCW knowledge scores of HAT symptoms improved across all demographic sub-groups. Of 71 HAT referrals made, two-thirds were from new referrers. Only 11 patients completed the referral, largely because of difficulties patients in remote areas faced accessing transportation. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The training increased knowledge and this led to more widespread appropriate HAT referrals from a low base. Many referrals were not completed, however. Increasing access to screening and/or diagnostic tests in the periphery will be needed for greater impact on case-detection in this context. These data suggest it may be possible for peripheral HCWs to target the use of rapid diagnostic tests for HAT

Global burden of respiratory infections associated with seasonal influenza in children under 5 years in 2018: a systematic review and modelling study

BackgroundSeasonal influenza virus is a common cause of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) in young children. In 2008, we estimated that 20 million influenza-virus-associated ALRI and 1 million influenza-virus-associated severe ALRI occurred in children under 5 years globally. Despite this substantial burden, only a few low-income and middle-income countries have adopted routine influenza vaccination policies for children and, where present, these have achieved only low or unknown levels of vaccine uptake. Moreover, the influenza burden might have changed due to the emergence and circulation of influenza A/H1N1pdm09. We aimed to incorporate new data to update estimates of the global number of cases, hospital admissions, and mortality from influenza-virus-associated respiratory infections in children under 5 years in 2018.MethodsWe estimated the regional and global burden of influenza-associated respiratory infections in children under 5 years from a systematic review of 100 studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2018, and a further 57 high-quality unpublished studies. We adapted the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale to assess the risk of bias. We estimated incidence and hospitalisation rates of influenza-virus-associated respiratory infections by severity, case ascertainment, region, and age. We estimated in-hospital deaths from influenza virus ALRI by combining hospital admissions and in-hospital case-fatality ratios of influenza virus ALRI. We estimated the upper bound of influenza virus-associated ALRI deaths based on the number of in-hospital deaths, US paediatric influenza-associated death data, and population-based childhood all-cause pneumonia mortality data in six sites in low-income and lower-middle-income countries.FindingsIn 2018, among children under 5 years globally, there were an estimated 109·5 million influenza virus episodes (uncertainty range [UR] 63·1–190·6), 10·1 million influenza-virus-associated ALRI cases (6·8–15·1); 870 000 influenza-virus-associated ALRI hospital admissions (543 000–1 415 000), 15 300 in-hospital deaths (5800–43 800), and up to 34 800 (13 200–97 200) overall influenza-virus-associated ALRI deaths. Influenza virus accounted for 7% of ALRI cases, 5% of ALRI hospital admissions, and 4% of ALRI deaths in children under 5 years. About 23% of the hospital admissions and 36% of the in-hospital deaths were in infants under 6 months. About 82% of the in-hospital deaths occurred in low-income and lower-middle-income countries.InterpretationA large proportion of the influenza-associated burden occurs among young infants and in low-income and lower middle-income countries. Our findings provide new and important evidence for maternal and paediatric influenza immunisation, and should inform future immunisation policy particularly in low-income and middle-income countries.</div

The association between travel time to health facilities and childhood vaccine coverage in rural Ethiopia. A community based cross sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have examined associations between access to health care and childhood vaccine coverage in remote communities that lack motorised transport. This study assessed whether travel time to health facilities was associated with childhood vaccine coverage in a remote area of Ethiopia. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study using data from 775 children aged 12-59 months who participated in a household survey between January -July 2010 in Dabat district, north-western Ethiopia. 208 households were randomly selected from each kebele. All children in a household were eligible for inclusion if they were aged between 12-59 months at the time of data collection. Travel time to vaccine providers was collected using a geographical information system (GIS). The primary outcome was the percentage of children in the study population who were vaccinated with the third infant Pentavalent vaccine ([Diphtheria, Tetanus,-Pertussis Hepatitis B, Haemophilus influenza type b] Penta3) in the five years before the survey. We also assessed effects on BCG, Penta1, Penta2 and Measles vaccines. Analysis was conducted using Poisson regression models with robust standard error estimation and the Wald test. RESULTS: Missing vaccination data ranged from 4.6% (36/775) for BCG to 16.4% (127/775) for Penta3 vaccine. In children with complete vaccination records, BCG vaccine had the highest coverage (97.3% [719/739]), Penta3 coverage was (92.9% [602/648]) and Measles vaccine had the lowest coverage (81.7% [564/690]). Children living ≥60mins from a health post were significantly less likely (adjRR = 0.85 [0.79-0.92] p value < =0.001) to receive Penta3 vaccine compared to children living <30mins from a health post. This effect was not modified by household wealth (p value = 0.240). Travel time also had a highly significant association with BCG (adjRR = 0.95 [0.93-0.98] p value =0.002) and Measles (adjRR = 0.88 [0.79-0.97] p value =0.027) vaccine coverage. CONCLUSIONS: Travel time to vaccine providers in health posts appeared to be a barrier to the delivery of infant vaccines in this remote Ethiopian community. New vaccine delivery strategies are needed for the hardest to reach children in the African region

Effect of ten-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on invasive pneumococcal disease and nasopharyngeal carriage in Kenya: a longitudinal surveillance study

BACKGROUND: Ten-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10), delivered at 6, 10, and 14 weeks of age was introduced in Kenya in January, 2011, accompanied by a catch-up campaign in Kilifi County for children aged younger than 5 years. Coverage with at least two PCV10 doses in children aged 2-11 months was 80% in 2011 and 84% in 2016; coverage with at least one dose in children aged 12-59 months was 66% in 2011 and 87% in 2016. We aimed to assess PCV10 effect against nasopharyngeal carriage and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in children and adults in Kilifi County. METHODS: This study was done at the KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme among residents of the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System, a rural community on the Kenyan coast covering an area of 891 km2. We linked clinical and microbiological surveillance for IPD among admissions of all ages at Kilifi County Hospital, Kenya, which serves the community, to the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System from 1999 to 2016. We calculated the incidence rate ratio (IRR) comparing the prevaccine (Jan 1, 1999-Dec 31, 2010) and postvaccine (Jan 1, 2012-Dec 31, 2016) eras, adjusted for confounding, and reported percentage reduction in IPD as 1 minus IRR. Annual cross-sectional surveys of nasopharyngeal carriage were done from 2009 to 2016. FINDINGS: Surveillance identified 667 cases of IPD in 3 211 403 person-years of observation. Yearly IPD incidence in children younger than 5 years reduced sharply in 2011 following vaccine introduction and remained low (PCV10-type IPD: 60·8 cases per 100 000 in the prevaccine era vs 3·2 per 100 000 in the postvaccine era [adjusted IRR 0·08, 95% CI 0·03-0·22]; IPD caused by any serotype: 81·6 per 100 000 vs 15·3 per 100 000 [0·32, 0·17-0·60]). PCV10-type IPD also declined in the post-vaccination era in unvaccinated age groups (<2 months [no cases in the postvaccine era], 5-14 years [adjusted IRR 0·26, 95% CI 0·11-0·59], and ≥15 years [0·19, 0·07-0·51]). Incidence of non-PCV10-type IPD did not differ between eras. In children younger than 5 years, PCV10-type carriage declined between eras (age-standardised adjusted prevalence ratio 0·26, 95% CI 0·19-0·35) and non-PCV10-type carriage increased (1·71, 1·47-1·99). INTERPRETATION: Introduction of PCV10 in Kenya, accompanied by a catch-up campaign, resulted in a substantial reduction in PCV10-type IPD in children and adults without significant replacement disease. Although the catch-up campaign is likely to have brought forward the benefits by several years, the study suggests that routine infant PCV10 immunisation programmes will provide substantial direct and indirect protection in low-income settings in tropical Africa. FUNDING: Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance and The Wellcome Trust of Great Britain