Seasonal prediction skill of winter temperature over North India

This document is the Accepted Manuscript version of the following article: Tiwari, P.R., Kar, S.C., Mohanty, U.C. et al. Theor Appl Climatol (2016) 124: 15. The final publication is available at Springer via https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1397-y. © Springer-Verlag Wien 2015.The climatology, amplitude error, phase error, and mean square skill score (MSSS) of temperature predictions from five different state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCMs) have been examined for the winter (December–January– February) seasons over North India. In this region, temperature variability affects the phenological development processes of wheat crops and the grain yield. The GCM forecasts of temperature for a whole season issued in November from various organizations are compared with observed gridded temperature data obtained from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for the period 1982–2009. The MSSS indicates that the models have skills of varying degrees. Predictions of maximum and minimum temperature obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climate forecast system model (NCEP_CFSv2) are compared with station level observations from the Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment (SASE). It has been found that when the model temperatures are corrected to account the bias in the model and actual orography, the predictions are able to delineate the observed trend compared to the trend without orography correction.Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio

Global Burden of Sickle Cell Anaemia in Children under Five, 2010-2050: Modelling Based on Demographics, Excess Mortality, and Interventions

The global burden of sickle cell anaemia (SCA) is set to rise as a consequence of improved survival in high-prevalence low- and middle-income countries and population migration to higher-income countries. The host of quantitative evidence documenting these changes has not been assembled at the global level. The purpose of this study is to estimate trends in the future number of newborns with SCA and the number of lives that could be saved in under-five children with SCA by the implementation of different levels of health interventions.First, we calculated projected numbers of newborns with SCA for each 5-y interval between 2010 and 2050 by combining estimates of national SCA frequencies with projected demographic data. We then accounted for under-five mortality (U5m) projections and tested different levels of excess mortality for children with SCA, reflecting the benefits of implementing specific health interventions for under-five patients in 2015, to assess the number of lives that could be saved with appropriate health care services. The estimated number of newborns with SCA globally will increase from 305,800 (confidence interval [CI]: 238,400-398,800) in 2010 to 404,200 (CI: 242,500-657,600) in 2050. It is likely that Nigeria (2010: 91,000 newborns with SCA [CI: 77,900-106,100]; 2050: 140,800 [CI: 95,500-200,600]) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (2010: 39,700 [CI: 32,600-48,800]; 2050: 44,700 [CI: 27,100-70,500]) will remain the countries most in need of policies for the prevention and management of SCA. We predict a decrease in the annual number of newborns with SCA in India (2010: 44,400 [CI: 33,700-59,100]; 2050: 33,900 [CI: 15,900-64,700]). The implementation of basic health interventions (e.g., prenatal diagnosis, penicillin prophylaxis, and vaccination) for SCA in 2015, leading to significant reductions in excess mortality among under-five children with SCA, could, by 2050, prolong the lives of 5,302,900 [CI: 3,174,800-6,699,100] newborns with SCA. Similarly, large-scale universal screening could save the lives of up to 9,806,000 (CI: 6,745,800-14,232,700) newborns with SCA globally, 85% (CI: 81%-88%) of whom will be born in sub-Saharan Africa. The study findings are limited by the uncertainty in the estimates and the assumptions around mortality reductions associated with interventions.Our quantitative approach confirms that the global burden of SCA is increasing, and highlights the need to develop specific national policies for appropriate public health planning, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Further empirical collaborative epidemiological studies are vital to assess current and future health care needs, especially in Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and India

Induction of interleukin-8 preserves the angiogenic response in HIF-1 alpha-deficient colon cancer cells

authorHypoxia inducible factor-1 (HIF-1) is considered a crucial mediator of the cellular response to hypoxia through its regulation of genes that control angiogenesis^1, ^2, ^3, ^4. It represents an attractive therapeutic target^5, ^6 in colon cancer, one of the few tumor types that shows a clinical response to antiangiogenic therapy^7. But it is unclear whether inhibition of HIF-1 alone is sufficient to block tumor angiogenesis^8, ^9. In HIF-1_α knockdown DLD-1 colon cancer cells (DLD-1^HIF-kd), the hypoxic induction of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) was only partially blocked. Xenografts remained highly vascularized with microvessel densities identical to DLD-1 tumors that had wild-type HIF-1_α (DLD-1^HIF-wt). In addition to the preserved expression of VEGF, the proangiogenic cytokine interleukin (IL)-8 was induced by hypoxia in DLD-1^HIF-kd but not DLD-1^HIF-wt cells. This induction was mediated by the production of hydrogen peroxide and subsequent activation of NF-_KB. Furthermore, the KRAS oncogene, which is commonly mutated in colon cancer, enhanced the hypoxic induction of IL-8. A neutralizing antibody to IL-8 substantially inhibited angiogenesis and tumor growth in DLD-1^HIF-kd but not DLD-1^HIF-wt xenografts, verifying the functional significance of this IL-8 response. Thus, compensatory pathways can be activated to preserve the tumor angiogenic response, and strategies that inhibit HIF-1α may be most effective when IL-8 is simultaneously targeted

Severe Plasmodium falciparum Malaria Is Associated with Circulating Ultra-Large von Willebrand Multimers and ADAMTS13 Inhibition

Plasmodium falciparum infection results in adhesion of infected erythrocytes to blood vessel endothelium, and acute endothelial cell activation, together with sequestration of platelets and leucocytes. We have previously shown that patients with severe infection or fulminant cerebral malaria have significantly increased circulatory levels of the adhesive glycoprotein von Willebrand factor (VWF) and its propeptide, both of which are indices of endothelial cell activation. In this prospective study of patients from Ghana with severe (n = 20) and cerebral (n = 13) P. falciparum malaria, we demonstrate that increased plasma VWF antigen (VWF∶Ag) level is associated with disproportionately increased VWF function. VWF collagen binding (VWF∶CB) was significantly increased in patients with cerebral malaria and severe malaria (medians 7.6 and 7.0 IU/ml versus 1.9 IU/ml; p<0.005). This increased VWF∶CB correlated with the presence of abnormal ultra-large VWF multimers in patient rather than control plasmas. Concomitant with the increase in VWF∶Ag and VWF∶CB was a significant persistent reduction in the activity of the VWF-specific cleaving protease ADAMTS13 (∼55% of normal; p<0.005). Mixing studies were performed using P. falciparum patient plasma and normal pooled plasma, in the presence or absence of exogenous recombinant ADAMTS13. These studies demonstrated that in malarial plasma, ADAMTS13 function was persistently inhibited in a time-dependent manner. Furthermore, this inhibitory effect was not associated with the presence of known inhibitors of ADAMTS13 enzymatic function (interleukin-6, free haemoglobin, factor VIII or thrombospondin-1). These novel findings suggest that severe P. falciparum infection is associated with acute endothelial cell activation, abnormal circulating ULVWF multimers, and a significant reduction in plasma ADAMTS13 function which is mediated at least in part by an unidentified inhibitor

Powder metallurgical processing of equiatomic AlCoCrFeNi high entropy alloy: Microstructure and mechanical properties

Phase formation, microstructural evolution and the mechanical properties of novel multi-component equiatomic AlCoCrFeNi high entropy alloy synthesized by high energy ball milling followed by spark plasma sintering have been reported here. The microstructure of the mechanically alloyed (MA) powder and sintered samples were studied using X-ray diffraction, scanning electron and transmission electron microscopy, whereas the detailed investigation of the mechanical properties of the sintered samples were measured using micro and nano hardness techniques. The fracture toughness measurements were performed by applying single edge V notch beam (SEVNB) technique. The MA powder shows the presence of FCC (tau) and BCC (kappa) solid solution phases. Extended ball milling (up to 60 h) does not change the phases present in MA powder. The sintered pellets show phase-separated microstructure consisting of Al-Ni rich L1(2) phase, alpha' and tetragonal Cr-Fe-Co based sigma phase along with Al-Ni-Co-Fe FCC solid solution phase (epsilon) for sample sintered from 973 to 1273 K. The experimental evidences indicate that BCC (kappa) solid solution undergoes eutectoid transformation during sintering leading to the formation of L1(2) ordered alpha' and sigma phases, whereas FCC (tau) phase remains unaltered with a slight change in the lattice parameter. The hardness of the sample increases with sintering temperature and a sudden rise in hardness is observed 1173 K. The sample sintered at 1273 K shows the highest hardness of similar to 8 GPa. The elastic modulus mapping clearly indicates the presence of three phases having elastic moduli of about 300, 220 and 160 GPa. The fracture toughness obtained using SEVNB test shows a maximum value of 3.9 MPa m(1/2), which is attributed to the presence of brittle nanosized sigma phase precipitates. It is proposed that significant increase in the fraction of sigma phase precipitates and eutectoid transformation of the tau phase contribute to increase in hardness along with better densification at higher sintering temperatures