Application of Computational Model Based Probabilistic Neural Network for Surface Water Quality Prediction

Applications of artificial intelligence (AI) models have been massively explored for various engineering and sciences domains over the past two decades. Their capacity in modeling complex problems confirmed and motivated researchers to explore their merit in different disciplines. The use of two AI-models (probabilistic neural network and multilayer perceptron neural network) for the estimation of two different water quality indicators (namely dissolved oxygen (DO) and five days biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5)) were reported in this study. The WQ parameters estimation based on four input modelling scenarios was adopted. Monthly water quality parameters data for the duration from January 2006 to December 2015 were used as the input data for the building of the prediction model. The proposed modelling was established utilizing many physical and chemical variables, such as turbidity, calcium (Ca), pH, temperature (T), total dissolved solids (TDS), Sulfate (SO4), total suspended solids (TSS), and alkalinity as the input variables. The proposed models were evaluated for performance using different statistical metrics and the evaluation results showed that the performance of the proposed models in terms of the estimation accuracy increases with the addition of more input variables in some cases. The performances of PNN model were superior to MLPNN model with estimation both DO and BOD parameters. The study concluded that the PNN model is a good tool for estimating the WQ parameters. The optimal evaluation indicators for PNN in predicting BOD are (R2 = 0.93, RMSE = 0.231 and MAE = 0.197). The best performance indicators for PNN in predicting Do are (R2 = 0.94, RMSE = 0.222 and MAE = 0.175)

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Al Abila Dam in the Western Desert of Iraq

The potential impacts resulting from climate change will cause significant global problems, particularly in underdeveloped nations where the effects are felt the most. Techniques for harvesting water such as small dams provide an alternative supply of water and are adaptive solutions to deal with water scarcity in the context of future climate change. However, it is difficult to determine how rainwater harvesting (dams) may be impacted by climate change since general circulation models (GCMs), widely utilized for predicting potential future climate change scenarios, work on an extremely large scale. The primary aim of this research was to quantify the effect of climate change on water availability at the catchment scale by statistically downscaling temperature and rainfall from the GCMs. Then, using a water harvesting model, the performance of the Abila Dam in Iraq’s western desert was evaluated in both the current climate (1990–2020) and various future climate change scenarios (2020–2100). Precipitation generally decreases as the annual temperature increases. To simulate future water availability, these changes in meteorological factors were incorporated into the water harvesting model. In total, 15% or less of net storage might fulfil the whole storage capacity during the baseline period, whereas it is 10% in RCP 2.6 in 2011–2040 for future scenarios. In contrast, RCP 8.5 will be able to meet water needs at a pace of 6% in 2011–2040. The findings of this study proved that the Al Abila dam will be unable to supply the necessary water for the area surrounding the Al Abila dam in the future scenarios

Novel reservoir system simulation procedure for gap minimization between water supply and demand

In recent years, with the quick growth of the economy and living standards in Malaysia, keeping up with the water demand is essential for the growth of cultivation, domestic and industrial. With the merits of having dams and reservoirs, water releases from dams are usually used to respond to the water requirements of downstream dams. To match the practical water requirement considering spatial and temporal conditions, a novel optimization operation model has been formulated for minimizing the gap between the water release from a dam and the water requirement. In this context, there is a need to develop an optimization model to alleviate the complexity and multidimensionality of a dam and reservoir as water supplies and the water demand system. In this research, an optimization algorithm, namely, the shark machine learning algorithm (SMLA) that has high inertia for obtaining its targets, is proposed that mimics the natural shark process. The major objective for the proposed model is attaining the minimum difference between the water demand volume and water release. To examine the proposed model, SMLA has been utilized in determining the optimal operation policies for Timah Tasoh Dam, located in Malaysia. A new procedure to evaluate the performance of optimization models by integrating reservoir inflow forecasting with operational rules generated by optimization models has been proposed. Accordingly, two predictive models, namely, radial basis function neural network (RBF-NN) and support vector regression (SVR), have been developed to forecast monthly reservoir inflow. The test results revealed that the SVR forecasts monthly reservoir inflow better than the RBF-NN model. Additionally, the SMLA attained more reliable, resilient and less vulnerable results in the operation of the reservoir system compared to that of other optimization models. In addition, SMLA has demonstrated a significant change in the performance indicator values when using forecasted reservoir inflow data rather than deterministic reservoir inflow data

Developing reservoir evaporation predictive model for successful dam management

Evaporation is a primary component of the hydrological cycle, water resources management and forward planning. The succeed management for the dam system is based on the accurate prediction of the reservoir evaporation magnitude. Physical models applied in the prediction of evaporation can encounter obstacles in respect to accurate estimations of evaporation due to the inherent challenges in respect to the mathematical procedure that could fail to address the natural processes and initial conditions that drive the evaporation patterns. To address these limitations, the present study aims to design a new model using the modified Coactive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (CANFIS) algorithm to improve feature extraction process in a purely data-driven model. The new approach comprised of the adjustments made to the back-propagation algorithm, allowing the automatic updating of the membership rules and hence, providing the center-weighted set rather than the global weight sets for input-target feature mapping. The predictive ability of the modified CANIFIS model is benchmarked in respect to the conventional ANFIS, SVR and RBF-NN model by statistical performance metrics. To explore its efficiency, the modified CANFIS method is applied for evaporation prediction in two diverse climatic environments. The results revealed the superiority of the modified CANFIS model for evaporation prediction in both Aswan High Dam (AHD) and Timah Tasoh Dam (TTD). The statistical indicators supported the better performance of the modified CANFIS model, which significantly outperforms other proposed models to attain relative error value less than (23% for AHD, 20% for TTD), MAE (12.72 mm month−1 for AHD, 7.63 mm month−1 for TTD), RMSE (15.42 mm month−1 for AHD, 8.53 mm month−1 for TTD) and a relative large coefficient of determination (0.96 for AHD, 0.91 for TTD)

RBF-NN-based model for prediction of weld bead geometry in Shielded Metal Arc Welding (SMAW)

Welding processes are considered as an essential component in most of industrial manufacturing and for structural applications. Among the most widely used welding processes is the shielded metal arc welding (SMAW) due to its versatility and simplicity. In fact, the welding process is predominant procedure in the maintenance and repair industry, construction of steel structures and also industrial fabrication. The most important physical characteristics of the weldment are the bead geometry which includes bead height and width and the penetration. Different methods and approaches have been developed to achieve the acceptable values of bead geometry parameters. This study presents artificial intelligence techniques (AIT): For example, radial basis function neural network (RBF-NN) and multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP-NN) models were developed to predict the weld bead geometry. A number of 33 plates of mild steel specimens that have undergone SMAW process are analyzed for their weld bead geometry. The input parameters of the SMAW consist of welding current (A), arc length (mm), welding speed (mm/min), diameter of electrode (mm) and welding gap (mm). The outputs of the AIT models include property parameters, namely penetration, bead width and reinforcement. The results showed outstanding level of accuracy utilizing RBF-NN in simulating the weld geometry and very satisfactorily to predict all parameters in comparison with the MLP-NN model

Synchronizing Artificial Intelligence Models for Operating the Dam and Reservoir System

It is remarkable that several hydrological parameters have a significant effect on the reservoir operation. Therefore, operating the reservoir system is complex issue due to existing the nonlinearity hydrological variables. Hence, determining modern model has high ability in handling reservoir operation is crucial. The present study developed artificial intelligence model, called Shark Machine Learning Algorithm (SMLA) to provide optimal operational rules. The major objective for the proposed model is minimizing the deficit volume between water releases and the irrigation water demand. The current study compared the performance of the SML model with popular evolutionary computing methods, namely Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Genetic Algorithm (GA). The proposed models have been utilized of finding the optimal policies to operate Timah Tasoh Dam, which is located in Malaysia. The study utilized considerable statistical indicators to explore the efficiency of the models. The simulation period showed that SMLA approach outperforms both of conventional algorithms. The SMLA attained high Reliability and Resilience (Rel. = 0.98%, Res. = 50%) and minimum Vulnerability (Vul. = 21.9 of demand). It is demonstrated that shark machine learning algorithm would be a promising tool in handling the long-term optimization problem in operation a reservoir system

Suspended sediment load prediction modelling based on artificial intelligence methods: The tropical region as a case study

The impact of the suspended sediment load (SSL) on environmental health, agricultural operations, and water resources planning, is significant. The deposit of SSL restricts the streamflow region, affecting aquatic life migration and finally causing a river course shift. As a result, data on suspended sediments and their fluctuations are essential for a number of authorities especially for water resources decision makers. SSL prediction is often difficult due to a number of issues such as site-specific data, site-specific models, lack of several substantial components to use in prediction, and complexity its pattern. In the past two decades, many machine learning algorithms have shown huge potential for SSL river prediction. However, these models did not provide very reliable results, which led to the conclusion that the accuracy of SSL prediction should be improved. As a result, in order to solve past concerns, this research proposes a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model for SSL prediction. The proposed model was applied for SSL prediction in Johor River located in Malaysia. The study allocated data for suspended sediment load and river flow for period 2010 to 2020. In the current research, four alternative models—Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) neural network, Support Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forest (RF), and Long Short-term Memory (LSTM) were investigated to predict the suspended sediment load. The proposed model attained a high correlation value between predicted and actual SSL (0.97), with a minimum RMSE (148.4 ton/day and a minimum MAE (33.43 ton/day).and can thus be generalized for application in similar rivers around the world

Application of Computational Model Based Probabilistic Neural Network for Surface Water Quality Prediction

Applications of artificial intelligence (AI) models have been massively explored for various engineering and sciences domains over the past two decades. Their capacity in modeling complex problems confirmed and motivated researchers to explore their merit in different disciplines. The use of two AI-models (probabilistic neural network and multilayer perceptron neural network) for the estimation of two different water quality indicators (namely dissolved oxygen (DO) and five days biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5)) were reported in this study. The WQ parameters estimation based on four input modelling scenarios was adopted. Monthly water quality parameters data for the duration from January 2006 to December 2015 were used as the input data for the building of the prediction model. The proposed modelling was established utilizing many physical and chemical variables, such as turbidity, calcium (Ca), pH, temperature (T), total dissolved solids (TDS), Sulfate (SO4), total suspended solids (TSS), and alkalinity as the input variables. The proposed models were evaluated for performance using different statistical metrics and the evaluation results showed that the performance of the proposed models in terms of the estimation accuracy increases with the addition of more input variables in some cases. The performances of PNN model were superior to MLPNN model with estimation both DO and BOD parameters. The study concluded that the PNN model is a good tool for estimating the WQ parameters. The optimal evaluation indicators for PNN in predicting BOD are (R2 = 0.93, RMSE = 0.231 and MAE = 0.197). The best performance indicators for PNN in predicting Do are (R2 = 0.94, RMSE = 0.222 and MAE = 0.175)

Forecasting hydrological parameters for reservoir system utilizing artificial intelligent models and exploring their influence on operation performance

Obtaining successful operation rules for dam and reservoir systems is crucial for improving water management to meet the increase in agricultural, domestic and industrial activities. Several research efforts have been developed to generate optimal operation rules for dam and reservoir systems utilizing different optimization algorithms. The main purpose of an operation rule is to minimize the gap between water supply and water demand patterns. To examine the optimized model performance, the simulation of a dam and reservoir system is usually carried out for a particular period utilizing the generated operation rule. During the simulation procedure, although reservoir inflow and evaporation are stochastic variables that are required to be forecasted during simulation, they are considered deterministic variables. This study attempts to integrate a forecasting model for reservoir inflow and evaporation with the operation rules generated from optimization models during the simulation procedure. The present study employs several optimization models to generate an optimal operation rule and two different forecasting models for reservoir inflow and reservoir evaporation. The three different optimization algorithms used in this study are the genetic algorithm (GA), particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm and shark machine learning algorithm (SMLA). Two different forecasting models have been developed for reservoir inflow and evaporation using the radial basis function neural network (RBF-NN) and support vector regression (SVR). It is necessary to analyze the proposed simulation procedure for examining the operation rule to comprehend the analysis under different optimal operation rules and levels of accuracy for both hydrological variables. The suggested models have been applied to generate optimal operation policies and reservoir inflow and evaporation forecasts for the Timah Tasoh dam (TTD) located in Malaysia. The results show that the major findings regarding the model performance during the simulation period indicate the necessity to pay attention to evaluating the optimized model performance by considering the results of the forecasting model for both the hydrological variables of reservoir inflow and reservoir evaporation rather than the deterministic values

Operating a reservoir system based on the shark machine learning algorithm

The operating process of a multi-purpose reservoir needs to develop models that have the ability to overcome the challenges facing the decision makers. Therefore, the development of a mathematical optimization model is crucial for selecting the optimal policies for the reservoir operation. In the current study, the shark machine learning algorithm (SMLA) is proposed to develop an optimal rule for operating the reservoir. The SMLA began with a group of randomly produced potential solutions and later interactively executed the search for the optimal solution. The procedure for the SMLA is suitable to be applied to a reservoir system due to its ability to tackle the stochastic features of dam and reservoir systems. The major purpose of the proposed models is to generate an operation rule that could minimize the absolute value of the differences between water release and water demand. The proposed model has been examined using the data of the Aswan High Dam, Egypt as the case study. The performance of the SMLA was compared with the performance of the most widespread evolutionary algorithms, namely, the genetic algorithm (GA). Comprehensive analysis of the results was performed using three performance indicators, namely, resilience, reliability, and vulnerability. This work concluded that the performance of the SMLA model was better than the GA model in generating the optimal policy for reservoir operation. The result showed that the SMLA succeeded in providing high reliability (99.72%), significant resilience (1) and minimum vulnerability (20.7% of demand)