Invited Perspective: Building sustainable and resilient communities – Recommended actions for natural hazard scientists

Reducing disaster risk is critical to securing the ambitions of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and natural hazard scientists make a key contribution to achieving this aim. Understanding Earth processes and dynamics underpins hazard analysis, which (alongside analysis of other disaster risk drivers) informs the actions required to manage and reduce disaster risk. Here we suggest how natural hazard research scientists can better contribute to the planning and development of sustainable and resilient communities through improved engagement in disaster risk reduction (DRR). Building on existing good practice, this perspective piece aims to provoke discussion in the natural hazard science community about how we can strengthen our engagement in DRR. We set out seven recommendations for enhancing the integration of natural hazard science into DRR: (i) characterise multi-hazard environments, (ii) prioritise effective, positive, long-term partnerships, (iii) understand and listen to your stakeholders, (iv) embed cultural understanding into natural hazards research, (v) ensure improved and equitable access to hazards information, (vi) champion people-centred DRR (leaving no one behind), and (vii) improve links between DRR and sustainable development. We then proceed to synthesise key actions that natural hazards scientists and research funders should consider taking to improve education, training, and research design, and to strengthen institutional, financial and policy actions. We suggest that these actions should help to strengthen the effective application of natural hazards science to reduce disaster risk. By recognising and taking steps to address the issues raised in these recommendations, we propose that the natural hazard science community can more effectively contribute to the inter/transdisciplinary, integrated work required to improve DR

Using paired teaching for earthquake education in schools

In this study, we have created 10 geoscience video lessons that follow the paired-teaching pedagogical approach. This method is used to supplement the standard school curriculum with video lessons, instructed by geoscientists from around the world, coupled with activities carried out under the guidance of classroom teachers. The video lessons introduce students to the scientific concepts behind earthquakes (e.g. the Earth's interior, plate tectonics, faulting, and seismic energy), earthquake hazards, and mitigation measures (e.g. liquefaction, structural, and non-structural earthquake hazards). These concepts are taught through hands-on learning, where students use everyday materials to build models to visualize basic Earth processes that produce earthquakes and explore the effects of different hazards. To evaluate the effectiveness of these virtual lessons, we tested our videos in school classrooms in Dushanbe (Tajikistan) and London (United Kingdom). Before and after the video implementations, students completed questionnaires that probed their knowledge on topics covered by each video, including the Earth's interior, tectonic plate boundaries, and non-structural hazards. Our assessment results indicate that, while the paired-teaching video lessons appear to enhance student knowledge and understanding of some concepts (e.g. Earth's interior, earthquake location forecasting, and non-structural hazards), they bring little change to their views on the causes of earthquakes and their relation to plate boundaries. In general, the difference between UK and Tajik students' level of knowledge prior to and after video testing is more significant than the difference between pre- and post-knowledge for each group. This could be due to several factors affecting curriculum testing (e.g. level of teachers' participation and classroom culture) and students' learning of content (e.g. pre-existing hazards knowledge and experience). To maximize the impact of school-based risk reduction education, curriculum developers must move beyond innovative content and pedagogical approaches, take classroom culture into consideration, and instil skills needed for participatory learning and discovery

Effect of logging wounds on diameter growth of beech (Fagus orientalis Lipsky) trees following selection cutting in Caspian forests of Iran

Background Logging damage to residual trees during selection cutting may lead to serious economic losses in terms of both timber quality and diameter growth reduction. In this study, we investigated the effect of logging operations on residual tree damage and the consequence of injuries on diameter growth in an uneven-aged mixed forest dominated by beech (Fagus orientalis Lipsky)

The "lipid accumulation product" performs better than the body mass index for recognizing cardiovascular risk: a population-based comparison

BACKGROUND: Body mass index (BMI, kg/m(2)) may not be the best marker for estimating the risk of obesity-related disease. Consistent with physiologic observations, an alternative index uses waist circumference (WC) and fasting triglycerides (TG) concentration to describe lipid overaccumulation. METHODS: The WC (estimated population minimum 65 cm for men and 58 cm for women) and TG concentration from the third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (N = 9,180, statistically weighted to represent 100.05 million US adults) were used to compute a "lipid accumulation product" [LAP = (WC-65) × TG for men and (WC-58) × TG for women] and to describe the population distribution of LAP. LAP and BMI were compared as categorical variables and as log-transformed continuous variables for their ability to identify adverse levels of 11 cardiovascular risk factors. RESULTS: Nearly half of the represented population was discordant for their quartile assignments to LAP and BMI. When 23.54 million with ordinal LAP quartile > BMI quartile were compared with 25.36 million with ordinal BMI quartile > LAP quartile (regression models adjusted for race-ethnicity and sex) the former had more adverse risk levels than the latter (p < 0.002) for seven lipid variables, uric acid concentration, heart rate, systolic and diastolic blood pressure. Further adjustment for age did not materially alter these comparisons except for blood pressures (p > 0.1). As continuous variables, LAP provided a consistently more adverse beta coefficient (slope) than BMI for nine cardiovascular risk variables (p < 0.01), but not for blood pressures (p > 0.2). CONCLUSION: LAP (describing lipid overaccumulation) performed better than BMI (describing weight overaccumulation) for identifying US adults at cardiovascular risk. Compared to BMI, LAP might better predict the incidence of cardiovascular disease, but this hypothesis needs prospective testing

Changes of overweight and obesity in the adult Swiss population according to educational level, from 1992 to 2007

In many high income developed countries, obesity is inversely associated with educational level. In some countries, a widening gap of obesity between educational groups has been reported. The aim of this study was to assess trends in body mass index (BMI) and in prevalence of overweight and obesity and their association with educational level in the adult Swiss population. Four cross-sectional National health interview surveys conducted in 1992/93 (n = 14,521), 1997 (n = 12,474), 2002 (n = 18,908) and 2007 (n = 17,879) using representative samples of the Swiss population (age range 18-102 years). BMI was derived from self-reported data. Overweight was defined as BMI &gt; or = 25 and &lt;30 kg/m(2), and obesity as BMI &gt; or = 30 kg/m(2). Mean (+/- standard deviation) BMI increased from 24.7 +/- 3.6 in 1992/3 to 25.4 +/- 3.6 kg/m2 in 2007 in men and 22.8 +/- 3.8 to 23.7 +/- 4.3 kg/m(2) in women. Between 1992/3 and 2007, the prevalence of overweight + obesity increased from 40.4% to 49.5% in men and from 22.3% to 31.3% in women, while the prevalence of obesity increased from 6.3% to 9.4% in men and from 4.9% to 8.5% in women. The rate of increase in the prevalence of obesity was greater between 1992/3 and 2002 (men: +0.26%/year; women: +0.31%/year) than between 2002 and 2007 (men: +0.10%/year; women: +0.10%/year). A sizable fraction (approximately 25%) of the increasing mean BMI was due to increasing age of the participants over time. The increase was larger in low than high education strata of the population. BMI was strongly associated with low educational level among women and this gradient remained fairly constant over time. A weaker similar gradient by educational level was apparent in men, but it tended to increase over time. In Switzerland, overweight and obesity increased between 1992 and 2007 and was associated with low education status in both men and women. A trend towards a stabilization of mean BMI levels was noted in most age categories since 2002. The increase in the prevalence of obesity was larger in low education strata of the population. These findings suggest that obesity preventive measures should be targeted according to educational level in Switzerland

Investigation of Different Forest Type’s Structure with Applying Nearest Neighbor Indices (Case Study: Gorazon District, Kheyrud Forest)

To implement correct management of forest ecosystems, enough information in relation to the structures of tree species is necessary. In this study, the structures of trees species in Fagus, Fagus-Carpinus, Carpinus-Fagus and Carpinus-Quercus types were investigated and compared in Hyrcanian forest. The data used in this study was collected from 239 plots with an area of 1000 m2 in Gorazbon district of Kheyrud forest, and Crancod (ver. 1.3) software was employed to calculate the uniform angle (Wi), Mingling (DMi), DBH dominance (TDi) and Height dominance (THi) indices. The result of uniform angle index showed a random positioning for the trees in the studied types. Also, the result of mingling index showed a low mixture for four studied types. The result of this index indicated an intra-specific competition for Fagus orientalis and Carpinus betulus and an inter-specific competition for other species. The average value of DBH and Height dominance indices showed a relative similarity among the studied types. The result of these indices showed that some species such as Acer velutinum,، Tilia begonifolia and Alnus subcordata are dominant and species including Ulmus glabra and Diospyros lotus are dominated. The comparing of similar species structure showed a non significant difference for positioning, DBH and height dominance features in different types. Also, this comparison showed a significant difference in mingling feature of Carpinus betulus, Fagus orientalis, Acer velutinum, Tilia begonifolia, and also deadwoods in the studied types. The utilized indices in this study had a high ability in the description of forest types' structures and also the ecological features of trees species

Application of Nearest Neighbor Indices in Studying Structure of the Unlogged Beech (Fagus Orientalis Lipsky) Forests in Kheyrud, Nowshahr

The quantitative description of forest structure can be regarded as one of the most usable working tools in modern forest management.The study aims at analyzing the stand structure in unlogged beech forests using nearest neighbor indices. Data collection was done in compartment 319 with an area about 48 ha in Educational and Experimental Forests of University of Tehran. Species and DBH of all trees with DBH > 7.5 cm were recorded. The location of each tree species was determined using azimuth and distance method in order to map tree positions. The nearest neighbor indices including Clark and Evans’s index, species mingling’s index (DMi), Relative mingling index (S) and diameter differentiation index (Tij) were then calculated using Crancod ver. 1.3 software. Using Clark and Evans’ index, the spatial pattern of trees in the study area was determined as clustered. The value of mingling index (0.31) indicated low mingling of species in these forests. The mean value of Tij (0.43) indicates moderate differentiation of trees regarding DBH, whereas S index (0.44) which is greater than 0 implies species separation in the study area. This research emphasizes the application of nearest neighbor indices in studying the beech stands structure

Seismic monitoring of small alpine rockfalls – validity, precision and limitations

Rockfall in deglaciated mountain valleys is perhaps the most important post-glacial geomorphic process for determining the rates and patterns of valley wall erosion. Furthermore, rockfall poses a significant hazard to inhabitants and motivates monitoring efforts in populated areas. Traditional rockfall detection methods, such as aerial photography and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) data evaluation, provide constraints on the location and released volume of rock but have limitations due to significant time lags or integration times between surveys, and deliver limited information on rockfall triggering mechanisms and the dynamics of individual events. Environmental seismology, the study of seismic signals emitted by processes at the Earth's surface, provides a complementary solution to these shortcomings. However, this approach is predominantly limited by the strength of the signals emitted by a source and their transformation and attenuation towards receivers. To test the ability of seismic methods to identify and locate small rockfalls, and to characterise their dynamics, we surveyed a 2.16 km2 large, near-vertical cliff section of the Lauterbrunnen Valley in the Swiss Alps with a TLS device and six broadband seismometers. During 37 days in autumn 2014, 10 TLS-detected rockfalls with volumes ranging from 0.053 ± 0.004 to 2.338 ± 0.085 m3 were independently detected and located by the seismic approach, with a deviation of 81−29+59 m (about 7 % of the average inter-station distance of the seismometer network). Further potential rockfalls were detected outside the TLS-surveyed cliff area. The onset of individual events can be determined within a few milliseconds, and their dynamics can be resolved into distinct phases, such as detachment, free fall, intermittent impact, fragmentation, arrival at the talus slope and subsequent slope activity. The small rockfall volumes in this area require significant supervision during data processing: 2175 initially picked potential events reduced to 511 potential events after applying automatic rejection criteria. The 511 events needed to be inspected manually to reveal 19 short earthquakes and 37 potential rockfalls, including the 10 TLS-detected events. Rockfall volume does not show a relationship with released seismic energy or peak amplitude at this spatial scale due to the dominance of other, process-inherent factors, such as fall height, degree of fragmentation, and subsequent talus slope activity. The combination of TLS and environmental seismology provides, despite the significant amount of manual data processing, a detailed validation of seismic detection of small volume rockfalls, and revealed unprecedented temporal, spatial and geometric details about rockfalls in steep mountainous terrain