Getting ready for future carbon abatement under uncertainty – key factors driving investment with policy implications

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is considered a key technology option for abating CO2 emissions in carbon-intensive sectors, e.g. the power sector. However, high investment costs and risk hinder the diffusion of CCS. To avoid stranded assets or high future costs for retrofitting, new plants can be made carbon capture ready (CCR) to enable them to accommodate future CCS retrofitting at low additional costs. Current CCR investment decisions are closely related to future CCS retrofitting and CCS operation decisions in subsequent stages, all of which would be affected by uncertainties. We develop a three-stage CCR investment decision model under multiple uncertainties which allows for investment and especially operating flexibilities. Applying this model to China shows that CCS operating flexibility under the carbon-pricing scheme may actually lower the probability of investing in a CCR plant, and neglecting it may overestimate the propensity for investing in CCR. Moreover, learning effects, which reduce the costs of future CCS retrofitting, may be detrimental to CCR investment, indicating that the policy support for research on, development of, and deployment of CCS to reduce CCS costs should be coordinated with CCR investments. Although higher electricity prices can increase the value of an investment opportunity, it may restrain CCR investment. Finally, CCR investment does not appear to be economically viable under current conditions in China because of low carbon prices, high carbon price risks, high CCR investment costs and the high opportunity costs of CCS operatio

Achieving China's energy and climate policy targets in 2030 under multiple uncertainties

The stringency of China's energy and climate targets in 2030 and the policy needed to realize these targets are full of controversy, mainly as a result of multiple future uncertainties. This study has developed a stochastic energy-economy-environment integrated model, to assess China's energy and climate targets in 2030, with a particular focus on the carbon intensity reduction, carbon emission peaking, and non-fossil energy development. The probabilities of realizing the targets are obtained, and the nexus among different targets is explored. It's argued that carbon emission management and policy-making should be implemented from the perspective of risk management, and policy makers can take corresponding policy measures based on the degree of confidence required under multiple future uncertainties. It is found that the probabilities of realizing carbon emission-peaking target and non-fossil energy target are low, with the business-as-usual efforts, and additional policies may still be needed. More specific, carbon pricing plays a major role in curbing and peaking carbon emissions, while the policy mix of carbon pricing and non-fossil energy subsidies can peak the carbon emission with relatively low cost compared to the single carbon pricing policy. It is also found that the carbon intensity reduction target is most likely to be attained, followed by the carbon-peaking target, and then the non-fossil energy target, given the same policy efforts. This indicates that, China may not deliberately increase carbon emissions rapidly over the next decade to make the carbon emission peak as high as possible; otherwise, it may be difficult to achieve the non-fossil energy target

Exploring the impacts of Sino–US trade disruptions with a multi-regional CGE model

With the aim to explore the boundary effects of the Sino–US trade war, this study considers a multi-region CGE model to set up six trade disruption scenarios based on the severity of trade friction, and empirically examines the gains and losses for China and the US, as well as potential impacts on other countries. The results show that: (1) Sino–US trade disruptions will likely result in a lose- lose situation; (2) compared to agriculture, China’s restriction on manufacturing imports may generate a greater negative impact on the US; (3) a trade diversion pattern is observed, indicating shrinking of bilateral trades between the two countries and increasing exports toward third trading partners; (4) although the US trade sanctions will substantially reduce the trade deficit with China, the trade deficits with other countries will likely increase. By empirically quantifying the boundary effects of Sino–US trade disruptions, this study sheds light on the negative effects of a trade war for both countries, as compared to proper negotiations

The profitability of onshore and wind and solar PV power projects in China : a comparative study

Despite the rapid development of renewable energy power in China, the sector is facing significant challenges in the form of declining feed-in tariffs (FIT) and serious curtailment problems. However, in the long-run the nationwide carbon emission trading system may provide a new economic incentive to invest in renewable energy projects in China. Against this background, we assess the effect of gradually declining FIT on the profitability of renewable energy power projects in China and evaluate the potential of a carbon price to overcome the resulting financial gap. Based on a dataset of 1552 onshore wind and 414 solar PV power projects from 2010 to 2015, we first estimate the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for onshore wind and solar PV investments. We then estimate profitability using different carbon prices and varying levels of FIT. Our findings suggest that revenues from selling certified carbon emissions reductions in the carbon market can compensate partially for the revenue losses caused by declining FIT. However, the current carbon prices of China's carbon-emission trading pilot schemes are not sufficiently high to compensate for revenue losses. For 90% of PV projects to remain profitable with lower FIT, the carbon price would need to rise to USD 64/t of CO2. For on-shore wind plants, lower carbon price levels of up to USD 41/t CO2 would be sufficient

Micro deep drawing of T2 copper foil using proportional decreased tools

Cooper foils are widely used in micro electronic industry, and they are suitable to be deep drawn to form cup-like parts. In this study, micro deep drawing experiments were conducted by using T2 copper foils after an annealing process, and three scale factors (λ = 0.5, 1, and 2) were set to indicate effects of proportional decreased tool dimensions and processing parameters on the forming result. The experimental results show that micro deep drawing parts with internal diameters of 0.5, 1.0, and 2.0 mm can be formed successfully. And the 0.5-mm cup drawing part has achieved the minimum dimension in recent reports. The standardized punch travel-deep drawing force curves are similar, and the maximum deep drawing force is decreased with smaller scale factor. The thickness distributions of different processing parameters are all decreased firstly and then show the trend to increase from bottom to upper regions. We find that the size effect influences the maximum deep drawing force during the forming process and the quality of forming part. And the maximum limit drawing ratio (LDR) is 2.2 for the experiment with scale factor of 0.5. Forming regularities of the proportional decreased micro deep drawing process can be presented clearly by changing the scale factor

Achieving grid parity of wind power in China : present levelized cost of electricity and future evolution

China has adopted an ambitious plan for wind power to achieve grid parity with the on-grid price of coal-fired power in 2020. Whether this target can be achieved is a great concern for policy makers as well as potential investors. To address this issue, we first estimate the future levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of wind power using a learning curve method, and then determine whether grid parity can be achieved by comparing it with the on-grid price of coal-fired power. Specially, the effect of carbon pricing on the grid-parity is explored, and a sensitivity analysis on how the discount rates, learning rates, and curtailment rates affect grid parity is conducted. The learning rate of onshore wind power is estimated using a panel dataset consisting of information of 2059 onshore wind projects in China from 2006 to 2015. Based on this learning rate, the future LCOE of Chinese onshore wind power from 2016 to 2025 is calculated. The results show that the LCOE of onshore wind power decreases by 13.91% from 0.40 RMB/kWh in 2016 to 0.34 RMB/kWh in 2025. By comparing the LCOE with the on-grid price of coal-fired power, the grid parity of onshore wind power may be achieved in 2019. With the implementation of the carbon pricing policy, the grid parity will be achieved earlier. More specifically, with the carbon price reaching 10, 35, and 60 RMB/t CO2, the grid parity can be achieved in 2019, 2017, and 2016, respectively. The results of the sensitivity analysis show that in the case of high discount rates, low learning rates, high curtailment rates, high O&M cost and low capacity factor, the grid parity will be delayed, and a high carbon price will be required to achieve the grid parity

Can carbon pricing support onshore wind power development in China? : an assessment based on a large sample project dataset

There is much discussion about whether the rapid expansion of onshore wind power in China is sustainable, given the decrease in feed-in tariffs (FIT). It is unclear whether the recently launched nationwide carbon pricing system, which will include 1700 power companies, can compensate for decreasing FITs and possibly provide new incentives for wind power developments. This paper investigates the ability of carbon pricing policies to compensate for declining FITs in support of onshore wind power investment in China. First, we constructed a dataset of 2059 onshore wind power projects from China’s thirty provinces between 2006 and 2015 to estimate the levelized costs of electricity (LCOE). This dataset was used to assess the profitability of each wind project for different carbon prices, varying levels of FITs, curtailment rate, and discount rate. Our findings suggest that the carbon price can compensate partially for the revenue loss caused by declining FITs as well as improving the profitability of projects. However, current carbon prices in China’s carbon emission trading pilots are not sufficiently high to compensate for the revenue losses, especially under the grid parity scenario. Consequently, without FITs, the sustainable development of onshore wind power in China is uncertain. A sensitivity analysis of the effect of the carbon pricing policy demonstrates that in the case of higher investment risk and more serious curtailment, the effect of carbon pricing policy on promoting the wind power investment seems to be more significant

Research on trajectory control technology for L-shaped horizontal exploration wells in coalbed methane

Abstract Horizontal wells have significant advantages in coal bed methane exploration and development blocks. However, its application in new exploration and development blocks could be challenging. Limited geological data, uncertain geological conditions, and the emergence of micro-faults in pre-drilled target coal seams make it hard to accurately control the well trajectory. The well trajectory prior to drilling needs to be optimized to ensure that the drilling trajectory is within the target coal seam and to prevent any reduction in drilling ratio (defined here as the percentage of the drilling trajectory in the entire horizontal section of the well located in the target coal seam) caused by faults. In this study, the well trajectory optimization is achieved by implementing the following process to drill pilot hole, acquire 2D resonance, and azimuthal gamma logging while drilling. The pilot hole drilling can obtain the characteristic parameters of the target coal seam and the top and bottom rock layers in advance, which can provide judgment values for the landing site design and real-time monitoring of whether the wellbore trajectory extends along the target coal seam; 2D resonance exploration can obtain the construction of set orientation before drilling and the development of small faults and formation fluctuations in the horizontal section, which can optimize the well trajectory in advance; the azimuth gamma logging while drilling technology can monitor the layers drilled by the current drill bit in real time, and can provide timely and accurate well trajectory adjustment methods.The horizontal well-Q in the Block-W of the Qinshui Basin was taken as a case study and underwent technical mechanism research and applicability analysis. The implementation of this new innovative process resulted in a successful drilling of a 711 m horizontal section, with a target coal seam drilling rate of 80%. Compared to previous L-type wells, the drilling rate increased by about 20%, and the drilling cycle shortened by 25%. The technical experience gained from this successful case provides valuable insight for low-cost exploration and development of new coalbed methane blocks

The role of national carbon pricing in phasing out China's coal power

Summary: As the country with the world's largest coal power capacity, China is launching a national carbon market. How the carbon pricing may contribute to phasing out China's coal power is a great concern. We collect full-sample data set of China's 4540 operating coal plant units and develop a stochastic Monte-Carlo financial model to assess the financial sustainability of the plant operation. Although China's coal plants have long residual technical lifetime, their operations are close to the break-even state. Even with low carbon price of 50 CNY/tCO2 growing at 4%/y and the permits being fully auctioned, the average residual lifetime of all the plants will be reduced by 5.43 years, and the cumulative CO2 emission from 2020 to 2050 will be reduced by 22.73 billion ton. The spatial disparity in the carbon pricing effect is significant, and the western regions are more vulnerable to the carbon pricing risk than the eastern regions