Predicting the start week of respiratory syncytial virus outbreaks using real time weather variables

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV), a major cause of bronchiolitis, has a large impact on the census of pediatric hospitals during outbreak seasons. Reliable prediction of the week these outbreaks will start, based on readily available data, could help pediatric hospitals better prepare for large outbreaks.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Naïve Bayes (NB) classifier models were constructed using weather data from 1985-2008 considering only variables that are available in real time and that could be used to forecast the week in which an RSV outbreak will occur in Salt Lake County, Utah. Outbreak start dates were determined by a panel of experts using 32,509 records with ICD-9 coded RSV and bronchiolitis diagnoses from Intermountain Healthcare hospitals and clinics for the RSV seasons from 1985 to 2008.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>NB models predicted RSV outbreaks up to 3 weeks in advance with an estimated sensitivity of up to 67% and estimated specificities as high as 94% to 100%. Temperature and wind speed were the best overall predictors, but other weather variables also showed relevance depending on how far in advance the predictions were made. The weather conditions predictive of an RSV outbreak in our study were similar to those that lead to temperature inversions in the Salt Lake Valley.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We demonstrate that Naïve Bayes (NB) classifier models based on weather data available in real time have the potential to be used as effective predictive models. These models may be able to predict the week that an RSV outbreak will occur with clinical relevance. Their clinical usefulness will be field tested during the next five years.</p

Prevalence of Coxiella burnetii antibodies among febrile patients in Croatia, 2008-2010

Despite the widespread distribution of Q fever, the prevalence in humans is not accurately known, because many infected people seroconvert without symptoms or with a mild febrile disease. The aim of this study was to determine the seroprevalence of Q fever in different regions of Croatia. During a 2-year period (2008-2010), serum samples from 552 febrile patients with prolonged cough aged 1-88 were tested for the presence of Coxiella burnetii antibodies by using indirect immunofluorescent assay. Sera from 27.5% patients showed IgG antibodies. Serological evidence of C. burnetii infection was found in patients from all parts of Croatia. Seroprevalence rates significantly differed among regions from 21.5% to 41.2% (p=0.001). Men were more often seropositive (31.6%) than women (22.2%; p=0.016). According to age, a progressive increase in the IgG seropositivity rates was observed as ranging from 6.7% in children less than 10 years of age to 39.2% in patients aged 40-49 (p=0.001). Above the age of 50, the IgG seroprevalence remained stable. Patients from rural areas were more often seropositive than patients from urban areas (40.8% vs. 19%), p<0.001). Acute Q fever was confirmed in 5.8% of patients. Cases occurred throughout the year. A majority of cases were reported during summer months

Supplementary Material for: Early Evolution of Human Respiratory Syncytial Virus ON1 Strains: Analysis of the Diversity in the C-Terminal Hypervariable Region of Glycoprotein Gene within the First 3.5 Years since Their Detection

<b><i>Objective:</i></b> Characterization of the phylogeny and diversity of human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) genotype ON1 that occurred during its early evolution (within the first 3.5 years since the detection of the first ON1 strains). ON1 strains have a 72-nucleotide-long in-frame duplication within the second hypervariable domain of the glycoprotein gene (HVR2). <b><i>Methods:</i></b> All available HVR2 sequences of strains belonging to the ON1 genotype published prior to June 20, 2014 were collected. Multiple sequence alignments, phylogeny, phylogeography, sequence clustering and putative protein analyses were performed. <b><i>Results:</i></b> The worldwide spread and diversification of ON1 strains are presented. Only in a minority of ON1 strains do the two replicas remain identical, and various ON1 strains possess common differences between the first and the second copy (segments A and B). Mutations of the progenitor sequence were more frequent in segment B, a higher overall diversity on the protein level and more putative glycosylation sites exist in segment B, and, unlike in segment A, positive selection acts on that protein region. <b><i>Conclusions:</i></b> The fast spread of the novel HRSV genotype ON1 has been accompanied by its rapid concurrent diversification. Differences in variability of the two replicas within HVR2 were detected, with C-terminal replica being more variable

Investigation of occurrence patterns of respiratory syncytial virus A and B in infected-patients from Cheonan, Korea

BACKGROUND: Respiratory infections caused by viruses affect the lower respiratory tract; these infections are severe in patients with underlying diseases and can even lead to death. Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), one of the causative agents of respiratory viral infections, is the most common cause of pneumonia and bronchiolitis in children and adults. METHODS: Respiratory specimens (nasopharyngeal aspirate, nasal swab, throat swab, etc.), which were sent to the Department of laboratory medicine from January 2012 to December 2018 for detection of respiratory viruses via real time reverse transcription PCR (Real time RT-PCR) were used in this study. RSV detected by real-time RT-PCR were analyzed on the basis of co-infection, sex and age of the patients, and year and month of sample collection. RESULTS: During the study period, we observed that the RSV detection rate was 12.8% (n = 1150/9010); the detection rate of RSV-A (7.1%) was higher than that of RSV-B (5.8%). The detection rate of RSV was the highest at 36.5% in December, and RSV-A and RSV-B were in vogue every year. Co-infection rate of RSVs was the highest in the patients over 80 years of age; RSVs showed the highest Co-infection with Rhinoviruses. CONCLUSIONS: During the study period, prevalence was different among the two subtypes of RSV, and the average age of RSV-B-positive patients was higher than that of RSV-A. Co-infection rate tended to increase every year. RSVs cause mild as well as severe infections. There are reports of serious clinical progress as RSVs cause overlapping infections with other viruses and increase the risk of secondary bacterial infections. Thus, further research on RSV should be done

Prevalence and clinical features of respiratory syncytial virus in children hospitalized for community-acquired pneumonia in northern Brazil

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Childhood pneumonia and bronchiolitis is a leading cause of illness and death in young children worldwide with Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) as the main viral cause. RSV has been associated with annual respiratory disease outbreaks and bacterial co-infection has also been reported. This study is the first RSV epidemiological study in young children hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in Belém city, Pará (Northern Brazil).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>With the objective of determining the prevalence of RSV infection and evaluating the patients’ clinical and epidemiological features, we conducted a prospective study across eight hospitals from November 2006 to October 2007. In this study, 1,050 nasopharyngeal aspirate samples were obtained from hospitalized children up to the age of three years with CAP, and tested for RSV antigen by direct immunofluorescence assay and by Reverse Transcription Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR) for RSV Group identification.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>RSV infection was detected in 243 (23.1%) children. The mean age of the RSV-positive group was lower than the RSV-negative group (12.1 months vs 15.5 months, <it>p</it><0.001) whereas gender distribution was similar. The RSV-positive group showed lower means of C-reactive protein (CRP) in comparison to the RSV-negative group (15.3 vs 24.0 mg/dL, <it>p</it><0.05). Radiological findings showed that 54.2% of RSV-positive group and 50.3% of RSV-negative group had interstitial infiltrate. Bacterial infection was identified predominantly in the RSV-positive group (10% vs 4.5%, p<0.05). Rhinorrhea and nasal obstruction were predominantly observed in the RSV-positive group. A co-circulation of RSV Groups A and B was identified, with a predominance of Group B (209/227). Multivariate analysis revealed that age under 1 year (<it>p</it><0.015), CRP levels under 48 mg/dL (<it>p</it><0.001) and bacterial co-infection (<it>p</it><0.032) were independently associated with the presence of RSV and, in the analyze of symptoms, nasal obstruction were independently associated with RSV-positive group (<it>p</it><0.001).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The present study highlights the relevance of RSV infection in hospitalized cases of CAP in our region; our findings warrant the conduct of further investigations which can help design strategies for controlling the disease.</p