Coupling Land Use Change Modeling with Climate Projections to Estimate Seasonal Variability in Runoff from an Urbanizing Catchment Near Cincinnati, Ohio

This research examines the impact of climate and land use change on watershed hydrology. Seasonal variability in mean streamflow discharge, 100-year flood, and 7Q10 low-flow of the East Fork Little Miami River watershed, Ohio was analyzed using simulated land cover change and climate projections for 2030. Future urban growth in the Greater Cincinnati area, Ohio, by the year 2030 was projected using cellular automata. Projected land cover was incorporated into a calibrated BASINS-HSPF model. Downscaled climate projections of seven GCMs based on the assumptions of two IPCC greenhouse gas emissions scenarios were integrated through the BASINS Climate Assessment Tool (CAT). The discrete CAT output was used to specify a seed for a Monte Carlo simulation and derive probability density functions of anticipated seasonal hydrologic responses to account for uncertainty. Sensitivity analysis was conducted for a small catchment in the watershed using the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) developed U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The results indicated higher probability of exceeding the 100-year flood over the fall and winter months, and a likelihood of decreasing summer low flows

Neighborhood Green Land Cover and Neighborhood-Based Walking in US Older Adults

Introduction: Greenspace exposure has been associated with physical activity, but few studies have investigated its association with physical activity in the residential neighborhood. This study investigates whether greater amounts of neighborhood open space and forest are associated with neighborhood-based walking in older adults. Methods: In 2020, cross-sectional analyses were conducted on those aged >= 65 years from the 2017 National Household Travel Survey. Minutes of neighborhood walking per day were derived from travel diaries. Green land cover measures from the 2011 National Land Cover Dataset were linked to respondent data by the U.S. census tract. Adjusted linear regression models, using weights accounting for survey sampling, tested the associations between the percentage of green land cover in the neighborhood (open space, forest) and minutes of neighborhood walking per day. Adjusted models were stratified to examine whether the associations varied by an individual-and neighborhood-level SES, sex, and race/ethnicity. Results: Respondents (N=72,753) were aged 74 (SD=7) years on average. Greater percentage of open space was associated with more neighborhood walking in African Americans (estimate=0.069, 95% CI=0.005, 0.133). Greater percentage of forest was associated with more neighborhood walking in the overall sample (estimate=0.028, 95% CI=0.006, 0.050), women (estimate=0.025, 95% CI=0.005, 0.045), and Whites (estimate=0.034, 95% CI=0.004, 0.064). Conclusions: Type of neighborhood green land cover (open space versus forest) may be differentially associated with neighborhood walking depending on race/ethnicity. This study suggests a possible association between greater neighborhood open space and greater walking among African Americans that must be confirmed in future studies. Am J Prev Med 2021;61(1):e13-e20. (c) 2021 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved

Projecting the impacts of a proposed streetcar system on the urban core land redevelopment: The case of Cincinnati, Ohio

This study explores the impacts of a proposed streetcar alignment on the urban core land redevelopment by employing a Cellular Automata–Markov chain model. In the past few years, the Cincinnati streetcar project has provoked controversies in the local community regarding its future impacts on the urban core revitalization. Streetcar supporters have argued that it will increase commercial and retail activities, while opponents have insisted that the project will have no impact on the city. Reconstructing the major arguments behind this public debate, the study incorporates ten spatial criteria to model land use changes. The criteria are integrated in three scenarios: a baseline scenario, which does not include the streetcar alignment, and two scenarios based on the supporters’ and opponents’ narratives. The results indicate that over the next 10 years the major impacts of land use change will be limited to the streets adjacent to the streetcar alignment. However, with supporting public policy, land use changes are expected to extend to the urban core. Now that the streetcar project has broken ground, the city must implement policies that will enhance the connectivity of the streetcar alignment with the adjacent neighborhoods

Gauging Heat Vulnerability in Southeast Florida: A Multimodal Approach Integrating Physical Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity

Urbanization and warming climate suggest that health impacts from extreme heat will increase in cities, thus locating vulnerable populations is pivotal. However, heat vulnerability indices (HVI) overwhelmingly interpret one model that may be inaccurate or methodologically flawed without considering how results compare with other HVI. Accordingly, this analysis applied a multimodal approach incorporating underrepresented health and adaptability measures to analyze heat vulnerability more comprehensively and better identify vulnerable populations. The Southeast Florida HVI (SFHVI) blends twenty-four physical exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indicators using uncommon statistical weights removing overlap, then SFHVI scores were compared statistically and qualitatively with ten models utilizing alternative methods. Urban areas with degraded physical settings, socioeconomic conditions, health, and household resources were particularly vulnerable. Rural and agricultural areas were also vulnerable reflecting socioeconomic conditions, health, and community resources. Three alternative models produced vulnerability scores not statistically different than SFHVI. The other seven differed significantly despite geospatial consistency regarding the most at-risk areas. Since inaccurate HVI can mislead decisionmakers inhibiting mitigation, future studies should increasingly adopt multimodal approaches that enhance analysis comprehensiveness, illuminate methodological strengths and flaws, as well as reinforce conviction about susceptible populations

Drinking water disparities and aluminum concentrations: Assessing socio-spatial dimensions across an urban landscape

The United States Environmental Protection Agency does not enforce a maximum contaminant level of Aluminum (Al) in treated drinking water and trace amounts are commonly found in household tap water. Al is known to impact the aesthetics of tap water, and research shows that exposure may have adverse impacts on human health. Socioeconomic status (SES) may play a role in Al exposure since some water treatment plants utilize “Alum” as an affordable treatment method, even though higher Al concentrations can result in finished drinking water. The objective of this study is to identify socio-spatial variations in concentrations of Al in household tap water across a highly diverse urban landscape. A total of 96 households in eastern Palm Beach County, Florida were randomly selected and tap water samples were collected from an unfiltered faucet and tested for Al. Al was above method detection limit in 56% of the samples analyzed, and 6% of the samples were above Florida’s secondary maximum contaminant level (concentrations ranged from 0.009 mg/L - 0.429 mg/L). Significant spatial clusters of higher Al concentrations in areas of lower SES were identified using local spatial autocorrelation (Getis-Ord Gi*). Maximum Likelihood of Spatial Lag and Spatial Weighted Least Squares HET regression models confirm a significant association between higher Al concentrations in tap water and lower SES. The findings of this study may be useful to water officials who aim to reduce levels of Al in tap water by prioritizing communities that experience the greatest socioeconomic deprivation

Marine Benthic Habitats and Seabed Suitability Mapping for Potential Ocean Current Energy Siting Offshore Southeast Florida

This study examines the legal framework for ocean current energy policy and regulation to develop a metric for assessing the biological and geological characteristics of a seabed area with respect to the siting of OCE devices, a framework of criteria by which to assess seabed suitability (seabed suitability framework) that can facilitate the siting, and implementation of ocean current energy (OCE) projects. Seafloor geology and benthic biological data were analyzed in conjunction with seafloor core sample geostatistical interpolation to locate suitable substrates for OCE anchoring. Existing submarine cable pathways were considered to determine pathways for power transmission cables that circumvent biologically sensitive areas. Suitability analysis indicates that areas east of the Miami Terrace and north of recently identified deep-sea coral mounds are the most appropriate for OCE siting due to abundance of sand/sediment substrate, existing underwater cable route access, and minimal biological presence (i.e., little to no benthic communities). Further reconnaissance requires higher resolution maps of geological substrate and benthic community locations to identify specific OCE development locations, classify benthic conditions, and minimize potentially negative OCE environmental impacts

The Effects of Infrastructure Service Disruptions and Socio-Economic Vulnerability on Hurricane Recovery

Hurricanes and extreme weather events can cause widespread damage and disruption to infrastructure services and consequently delay household and community recovery. A subset of data from a cross-sectional survey of 989 households in central and south Florida is used to examine the effects of Hurricane Irma on post-disaster recovery eight months after the landfall. Using logistic regression modeling, we find that physical damage to property, disruption of infrastructure services such as loss of electric power and cell phone/internet services and other factors (i.e., homeowner’s or renter’s insurance coverage, receiving disaster assistance and loss of income) are significant predictors of post-disaster recovery when controlling for age and race/ethnicity

Measuring Resilience to Sea-Level Rise for Critical Infrastructure Systems: Leveraging Leading Indicators

There has been a growing interest in research on how to define and build indicators of resilience to address challenges associated with sea-level rise. Most of the proposed methods rely on lagging indicators constructed based on the historical performance of an infrastructure sub-system. These indicators are traditionally utilized to build curves that describe the past response of the sub-system to stressors; these curves are then used to predict the future resilience of the sub-system to hypothesized events. However, there is now a growing concern that this approach cannot provide the best insights for adaptive decision-making across the broader context of multiple sub-systems and stakeholders. As an alternative, leading indicators that are built on the structural characteristics that embody system resilience have been gaining in popularity. This structure-based approach can reveal problems and gaps in resilience planning and shed light on the effectiveness of potential adaptation activities. Here, we survey the relevant literature for these leading indicators within the context of sea-level rise and then synthesize the gained insights into a broader examination of the current research challenges. We propose research directions on leveraging leading indicators as effective instruments for incorporating resilience into integrated decision-making on the adaptation of infrastructure systems

Perceptions of greenspace and social determinants of health across the life course: The Life Course Sociodemographics and Neighborhood Questionnaire (LSNEQ)

We developed the Life Course Sociodemographics and Neighborhood Questionnaire (LSNEQ) to query older adults about perceived neighborhood greenspaces across the life course (i.e., distance to park, number of neighborhood parks/playgrounds, and neighborhood greenness) and about characteristics hypothesized to confound or moderate/mediate greenspace-health associations. Six perceived life course indices are derived from the LSNEQ: neighborhood socioeconomic status, neighborhood walking/biking, urbanicity, neighborhood amenities, neighborhood park access, and neighborhood greenness. Older adults from St. Louis, Missouri, and Sacramento, California, completed the LSNEQ in 2020-2021. The indices demonstrated borderline acceptable to good internal consistency (alpha = 0.60-0.79) and good to excellent test-retest reliability (ICC = 0.71-0.96) and detected different patterns of park access and neighborhood greenness by racialized group and location. Individuals with index scores indicating more neighborhood walking/biking and greater presence of neighborhood amenities over their life course were more likely to report neighborhood-based walking in older age. Overall, the LSNEQ is a reliable instrument to assess perceptions of life course social determinants of health including neighborhood greenspaces

Assessing Potential Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Public Health and Vulnerable Populations in Southeast Florida and Providing a Framework to Improve Outcomes

In recent years, ongoing efforts by a multitude of universities, local governments, federal agencies, and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) have been focused on sea-level rise (SLR) adaptation in Florida. However, within these efforts, there has been very little attention given to the potential impacts of sea-level rise on human health. The intent of this project is to identify populations in Southeast Florida that are most vulnerable to sea-level rise from a topographic perspective, determine how vulnerable these population are from a socio-economic perspective, identify potential health impacts, develop adaptation strategies designed to assist these communities, and produce an outreach effort that can be shared with other coastal communities. The location of socially-vulnerable and health-vulnerable populations are correlated, but at present they are not generally in the geographically-vulnerable areas. Projections indicate that they will become at risk in the future but the lack of data on emerging diseases makes public health assessments difficult. We propose a redefinition of “who is vulnerable?” to include health indicators and hard infrastructure solutions for flood and property protection. These tools can be used to help protect water resources from the impacts of climate change, which would, in turn, protect public health via drinking water supplies, and efforts to address social issues