Description of study sample.

<p>* All variables except ApoE genotype: Number of missing values: 0–22; ApoE genotype: Number of missing values: 117.</p>#<p>χ² test or Linear Trend test for group comparison.</p>1<p>subjective memory impairment,</p>2<p>Mini-Mental-Status-Examination,</p>3<p>Geriatric Depression Scale,</p>4<p>Instrumental Activities of Daily Living Scale,</p>5<p>according to the Comparative Analysis of Social Mobility in Industrial Nations (CASMIN) classification system.</p

AD-free survival in the first cohort and the test cohort by the criterion of at least 80% sensitivity in the first cohort (0–9 and > = 10 points).

<p>AD-free survival in the first cohort and the test cohort by the criterion of at least 80% sensitivity in the first cohort (0–9 and > = 10 points).</p

Rate of progression to AD by risk score.

a<p>The cut-off of the risk score was defined as to achieve a sensitivity of at least 80% in the first cohort.</p>b<p>The cut-off was defined to separate the 10% individuals with the highest risk score from the rest in the first cohort and to define them as a high risk group. AD = Alzheimer's dementia.</p

Cox regression models for Alzheimer dementia risk (first cohort, n = 1526).

1<p>Hazard Ratio,</p>2<p>subjective memory impairment,</p>3<p>Mini-Mental-Status-Examination,</p>4<p>Geriatric Depression Scale,</p>5<p>Instrumental Activities of Daily Living Scale,</p>6<p>according to the Comparative Analysis of Social Mobility in Industrial Nations (CASMIN) classification system.</p

Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) of the risk index and the simplified risk score in the first cohort.

<p>Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) of the risk index and the simplified risk score in the first cohort.</p

AD-free survival in the first cohort and the test cohort divided into the top 10% on the risk score and the rest of the cohorts (0–14 and > = 15 points).

<p>AD-free survival in the first cohort and the test cohort divided into the top 10% on the risk score and the rest of the cohorts (0–14 and > = 15 points).</p

Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) of the risk score in the first cohort and in the test cohort.

<p>Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) of the risk score in the first cohort and in the test cohort.</p

Sensitivity analysis: Longitudinal predictors of informal care costs and total costs in dementia patients (6-month costs in € at 2008 values) for different unit costs for informal care.

<p>Linear mixed models with random effects for individuals;</p><p>*<i>p</i><0,05;</p><p>**<i>p</i><0,01;</p><p>***<i>p</i><0,001;</p><p>SE  =  standard errors, based on nonparametric bootstrapping (4,000 replications);</p>a<p>Barthel index and IADL score reverse coded. Exchange rate: 1.39 US-$ per € (2008).</p

Comparison of complete cases and drop-outs.

<p>Comorbidity: number of comorbid chronic conditions; MMSE  =  Mini-Mental Status Examination; IADL  =  instrumental activities of daily living; GDS  =  Global Deterioration Scale;</p>a<p>two-tailed T test;</p>b<p>chi² test;</p>c<p>11 missing values in each subsample;</p>d<p>number of chronic comorbid conditions.</p

Longitudinal predictors of costs in dementia patients (6-month costs in € at 2008 values).

<p>Linear mixed models with random effects for individuals;</p><p>*<i>p</i> <0,05;</p><p>**<i>p</i><0,01;</p><p>***<i>p</i><0,001;</p><p>SE  =  standard errors, based on nonparametric bootstrapping (4,000 replications);</p>a<p>Barthel index and IADL score reverse coded. Exchange rate: 1.39 US-$ per € (2008).</p