The future of population in Asia

For more about the East-West Center, see http://www.eastwestcenter.org/Over the past 50 years, many Asian countries have experienced a remarkable pace of economic development and social change. Economic transformation plus dramatic breakthroughs in health and family planning technology have been the fundamental forces driving a demographic transition—from high to low mortality and fertility—in nearly every country of the region. This demographic transition, in turn, has provided favorable conditions for social and economic development. The Future of Population in Asia describes recent population trends in Asia and explores the likely course of Asian population dynamics in the future. This 150-page volume brings together research on population and health conducted in recent years by staff members at the East-West Center and their colleagues in Asia and the United States. It includes many illustrations and charts plus a useful reference list and comprehensive appendix tables. Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the report is intended for an audience of policymakers, government leaders, the donor community, population and international development organizations, business leaders, and others with an interest in Asia and in global population issues. The objective is to increase awareness of population trends in Asia and how critical these are to the economic and social well being of the global community.Introduction and overview / Robert D. Retherford -- Fertility and family planning / Robert D. Retherford, Sidney B. Westley -- Tradition and change in marriage and family life / Minja Kim Choe, Sidney B. Westley, Robert D. Retherford -- Changing status of women in Asian societies / Sidney B. Westley -- Asia's changing youth population / Sidney B. Westley, Minja Kim Choe -- HIV/AIDS in Asia / Tim Brown -- Asia's aging population / Sidney B. Westley, Andrew Mason -- Population change and economic development: success stories from Asia / Andrew Mason, Sidney B. Westley -- Population, natural resources, and environment / Vinod K. Mishr

How Far Has Fertility in China Really Declined?

According to births in the last year as reported in China's 2000 census, the total fertility rate (TFR) in the year 2000 in China was 1.22 children per woman. This estimate is widely considered to be too low, primarily because some women who had out-of-quota births according to China's one-child family policy did not report those births to the census enumerator. Analysis of fertility trends derived by applying the own-children method of fertility estimation to China's 1990 and 2000 censuses indicates that the true level of the TFR in 2000 was probably between 1.5 and 1.6 children per woman. A decomposition analysis of change in the TFR between 1990 and 2000, based on our best estimate of 1.59 for the TFR in 2000, indicates that about two-fifths of the decline in the conventional TFR between 1990 and 2000 is accounted for by later marriage and less marriage, and three-fifths by declining fertility within marriage. The analysis also applies the birth history reconstruction method of fertility estimation to the two censuses, yielding an alternative set of fertility estimates that are compared with the set derived by the own-children method. The analysis also includes estimates of trends in fertility by urban/rural residence, education, ethnicity, and migration status. Over time, fertility has declined sharply within all categories of these characteristics, indicating that the one-child policy has had large across-the-board effects. Copyright 2005 The Population Council, Inc..