Cost-effectiveness of screening for HIV in primary care: a health economics modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND: Early HIV diagnosis reduces morbidity, mortality, the probability of onward transmission, and their associated costs, but might increase cost because of earlier initiation of antiretroviral treatment (ART). We investigated this trade-off by estimating the cost-effectiveness of HIV screening in primary care. METHODS: We modelled the effect of the four-times higher diagnosis rate observed in the intervention arm of the RHIVA2 randomised controlled trial done in Hackney, London (UK), a borough with high HIV prevalence (≥0·2% adult prevalence). We constructed a dynamic, compartmental model representing incidence of infection and the effect of screening for HIV in general practices in Hackney. We assessed cost-effectiveness of the RHIVA2 trial by fitting model diagnosis rates to the trial data, parameterising with epidemiological and behavioural data from the literature when required, using trial testing costs and projecting future costs of treatment. FINDINGS: Over a 40 year time horizon, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were £22 201 (95% credible interval 12 662-132 452) per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, £372 207 (268 162-1 903 385) per death averted, and £628 874 (434 902-4 740 724) per HIV transmission averted. Under this model scenario, with UK cost data, RHIVA2 would reach the upper National Institute for Health and Care Excellence cost-effectiveness threshold (about £30 000 per QALY gained) after 33 years. Scenarios using cost data from Canada (which indicate prolonged and even higher health-care costs for patients diagnosed late) suggest this threshold could be reached in as little as 13 years. INTERPRETATION: Screening for HIV in primary care has important public health benefits as well as clinical benefits. We predict it to be cost-effective in the UK in the medium term. However, this intervention might be cost-effective far sooner, and even cost-saving, in settings where long-term health-care costs of late-diagnosed patients in high-prevalence regions are much higher (≥60%) than those of patients diagnosed earlier. Screening for HIV in primary care is cost-effective and should be promoted. FUNDING: NHS City and Hackney, UK Department of Health, National Institute for Health Research Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care

Cost effectiveness of an intervention to increase uptake of hepatitis C virus testing and treatment (HepCATT):cluster randomised controlled trial in primary care

Objective To evaluate the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of a complex intervention in primary care that aims to increase uptake of hepatitis C virus (HCV) case finding and treatment. Design Pragmatic, two armed, practice level, cluster randomised controlled trial and economic evaluation. Setting and participants 45 general practices in South West England (22 randomised to intervention and 23 to control arm). Outcome data were collected from all intervention practices and 21/23 control practices. Total number of flagged patients was 24 473 (about 5% of practice list). Intervention Electronic algorithm and flag on practice systems identifying patients with HCV risk markers (such as history of opioid dependence or HCV tests with no evidence of referral to hepatology), staff educational training in HCV, and practice posters/leaflets to increase patients’ awareness. Flagged patients were invited by letter for an HCV test (with one follow-up) and had on-screen pop-ups to encourage opportunistic testing. The intervention lasted one year, with practices recruited April to December 2016. Main outcome measures Primary outcome: uptake of HCV testing. Secondary outcomes: number of positive HCV tests and yield (proportion HCV positive); HCV treatment assessment at hepatology; cost effectiveness. Results Baseline HCV testing of flagged patients (six months before study start) was 608/13 097 (4.6%) in intervention practices and 380/11 376 (3.3%) in control practices. During the study 2071 (16%) of flagged patients in the intervention practices and 1163 (10%) in control practices were tested for HCV: overall intervention effect as an adjusted rate ratio of 1.59 (95% confidence interval 1.21 to 2.08; P<0.001). HCV antibodies were detected in 129 patients from intervention practices and 51 patients from control practices (adjusted rate ratio 2.24, 1.47 to 3.42) with weak evidence of an increase in yield (6.2% v 4.4%; adjusted risk ratio 1.40, 0.99 to 1.95). Referral and assessment increased in intervention practices compared with control practices (adjusted rate ratio 5.78, 1.6 to 21.6) with a risk difference of 1.3 per 1000 and a “number needed to help” of one extra HCV diagnosis, referral, and assessment per 792 (95% confidence interval 558 to 1883) patients flagged. The average cost of HCV case finding was £4.03 (95% confidence interval £2.27 to £5.80) per at risk patient and £3165 per additional patient assessed at hepatology. The incremental cost effectiveness ratio was £6212 per quality adjusted life year (QALY), with 92.5% probability of being below £20 000 per QALY. Conclusion HepCATT had a modest impact but is a low cost intervention that merits optimisation and implementation as part of an NHS strategy to increase HCV testing and treatment

Patients’ perspectives on the development of HIV services to accommodate ageing with HIV: a qualitative study

Objectives: To identify aspects of healthcare that are most valued by people with HIV; and to describe their concerns and preferences for the future delivery of services for non-HIV related illness amongst people living with HIV (PLWHIV). Methods: Twelve focus groups of people receiving HIV care were conducted in community settings in South-East England. Groups were quota sampled based on age, sex, sexual orientation, and ethnicity. Data were analysed using Framework Analysis. Results: Among the 74 respondents (61% male) a preference for maintaining all care within specialist HIV clinics was commonplace, but was highest among participants with more extensive histories of HIV and comorbidities. Participants valued care-coordination, inter-service communication, and timely updates to medical notes. There were high levels of concern around HIV skills in general practices and the capacity of general practitioners (GP) to manage patient confidentiality or deal appropriately with the emotional and social changes of living with HIV. Implications: Participants valued, and had an overall preference for, the specialist knowledge and skills of HIV services, suggesting that non-HIV-specialist services will need to build their appeal if they are to have a greater future role in the care of people with HIV. Particular concerns that should be addressed include: patient confidence in the HIV knowledge and skills of non-specialist service providers; clear processes for prescribing and referrals; improved levels of care-coordination and communication between services; increased patient confidence in the capacity of primary care to maintain confidentiality and to appreciate the stigma associated with HIV

Genome-to-genome analysis highlights the effect of the human innate and adaptive immune systems on the hepatitis C virus

Outcomes of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and treatment depend on viral and host genetic factors. Here we use human genome-wide genotyping arrays and new whole-genome HCV viral sequencing technologies to perform a systematic genome-to-genome study of 542 individuals who were chronically infected with HCV, predominantly genotype 3. We show that both alleles of genes encoding human leukocyte antigen molecules and genes encoding components of the interferon lambda innate immune system drive viral polymorphism. Additionally, we show that IFNL4 genotypes determine HCV viral load through a mechanism dependent on a specific amino acid residue in the HCV NS5A protein. These findings highlight the interplay between the innate immune system and the viral genome in HCV control

Prospective association of social circumstance, socioeconomic, lifestyle and mental health factors with subsequent hospitalisation over 6-7 year follow up in people living with HIV.

BACKGROUND: Predictors of hospitalisation in people with HIV (PLHIV) in the contemporary treatment era are not well understood. METHODS: This ASTRA sub-study used clinic data linkage and record review to determine occurrence of hospitalisations among 798 PLHIV from baseline questionnaire (February to December 2011) until 1 June 2018. Associations of baseline social circumstance, socioeconomic, lifestyle, mental health, demographic and clinical factors with repeated all-cause hospitalisation from longitudinal data were investigated using Prentice-Williams-Peterson models. Associations were also assessed in 461 individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) with viral load ≤50 copies/ml and CD4 count ≥500 cells/ µl. FINDINGS: Rate of hospitalisation was 5.8/100 person-years (95% CI: 5.1-6.5). Adjusted for age, demographic group and time with diagnosed HIV, the following social circumstance, socioeconomic, lifestyle and mental health factors predicted hospitalisation: no stable partner (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR)=1.59; 95% CI=1.16-2.20 vs living with partner); having children (aHR=1.50; 1.08-2.10); non-employment (aHR=1.56; 1.07-2.27 for unemployment; aHR=2.39; 1.70-3.37 for sick/disabled vs employed); rented housing (aHR=1.72; 1.26-2.37 vs homeowner); not enough money for basic needs (aHR=1.82; 1.19-2.78 vs enough); current smoking (aHR=1.39; 1.02-1.91 vs never); recent injection-drug use (aHR=2.11; 1.30-3.43); anxiety symptoms (aHRs=1.39; 1.01-1.91, 2.06; 1.43-2.95 for mild and moderate vs none/minimal); depressive symptoms (aHRs=1.67; 1.17-2.38, 1.91; 1.30-2.78 for moderate and severe vs none/minimal); treated/untreated depression (aHRs=1.65; 1.03-2.64 for treated depression only, 1.87; 1.39-2.52 for depressive symptoms only; 1.53; 1.05-2.24; for treated depression and depressive symptoms, versus neither). Associations were broadly similar in those with controlled HIV and high CD4. INTERPRETATION: Social circumstance, socioeconomic disadvantage, adverse lifestyle factors and poorer mental health are strong predictors of hospitalisation in PLHIV, highlighting the need for targeted interventions and care. FUNDING: British HIV Association (BHIVA) Research Award (2017); SMR funded by a PhD fellowship from the Royal Free Charity

Causes of hospitalisation among a cohort of people with HIV from a London centre followed from 2011 to 2018.

BACKGROUND: We describe the spectrum of ICD-10 classified causes for hospitalisations occurring between 2011 and 2018 in a cohort of people living with HIV (PLHIV). METHODS: This sub-study includes 798 PLHIV participating in the Antiretroviral, Sexual Transmission Risk and Attitudes (ASTRA) questionnaire study who were recruited from a large London centre. A medical record review identified the occurrence and causes of hospitalisation from the date of questionnaire completion (February-December 2011) until 1 June 2018. Up to five causes were classified by an HIV clinician using the ICD-10 system. RESULTS: There were 274 hospitalisations in 153 people (rate = 5.8/100 person-years; 95% CI: 5.1, 6.5). Causes were wide-ranging; the most common were circulatory (16.8%), digestive (13.1%), respiratory (11.7%), infectious diseases (11.0%), injury/poisoning (10.6%), genitourinary diseases (9.9%) and neoplasms (9.1%). A tenth (27/274) of hospitalisations were related to at least one AIDS-defining illness. Median duration of hospitalisation was 5 days (IQR 2-9). At the time of hospitalisation, median CD4 count was high (510 cells/μl; IQR: 315-739), while median CD4 nadir was relatively low (113 cells/μl; IQR: 40-239). At admission, half of individuals (51%) had a previous AIDS-defining illness and 21% had viral load > 50 copies/ml. Individuals admitted for infectious diseases were particularly likely to have unfavourable HIV-related clinical characteristics (low CD4, viral non-suppression, not on antiretroviral therapy (ART), previous AIDS). CONCLUSIONS: In the modern combination antiretroviral therapy era, the spectrum of causes of hospitalisation in PLHIV in the UK is wide-ranging, highlighting the importance of holistic care for PLHIV, including prevention, early detection and treatment of comorbidities

Projected Lifetime Healthcare Costs Associated with HIV Infection.

OBJECTIVE: Estimates of healthcare costs associated with HIV infection would provide valuable insight for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of possible prevention interventions. We evaluate the additional lifetime healthcare cost incurred due to living with HIV. METHODS: We used a stochastic computer simulation model to project the distribution of lifetime outcomes and costs of men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) infected with HIV in 2013 aged 30, over 10,000 simulations. We assumed a resource-rich setting with no loss to follow-up, and that standards and costs of healthcare management remain as now. RESULTS: Based on a median (interquartile range) life expectancy of 71.5 (45.0-81.5) years for MSM in such a setting, the estimated mean lifetime cost of treating one person was £ 360,800 ($567,000 or € 480,000). With 3.5$291,000 or € 246,000). The largest proportion (68%) of these costs was attributed to antiretroviral drugs. If patented drugs are replaced by generic versions (at 20% cost of patented prices), estimated mean lifetime costs reduced to £ 179,000 ($281,000 or € 238,000) and £ 101,200 ($ 158,900 or € 134,600) discounted. CONCLUSIONS: If 3,000 MSM had been infected in 2013, then future lifetime costs relating to HIV care is likely to be in excess of £ 1 billion. It is imperative for investment into prevention programmes to be continued or scaled-up in settings with good access to HIV care services. Costs would be reduced considerably with use of generic antiretroviral drugs

Viral genome wide association study identifies novel hepatitis C virus polymorphisms associated with sofosbuvir treatment failure

Persistent hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a major cause of chronic liver disease, worldwide. With the development of direct-acting antivirals, treatment of chronically infected patients has become highly effective, although a subset of patients responds less well to therapy. Sofosbuvir is a common component of current de novo or salvage combination therapies, that targets the HCV NS5B polymerase. We use pre-treatment whole-genome sequences of HCV from 507 patients infected with HCV subtype 3a and treated with sofosbuvir containing regimens to detect viral polymorphisms associated with response to treatment. We find three common polymorphisms in non-targeted HCV NS2 and NS3 proteins are associated with reduced treatment response. These polymorphisms are enriched in post-treatment HCV sequences of patients unresponsive to treatment. They are also associated with lower reductions in viral load in the first week of therapy. Using in vitro short-term dose-response assays, these polymorphisms do not cause any reduction in sofosbuvir potency, suggesting an indirect mechanism of action in decreasing sofosbuvir efficacy. The identification of polymorphisms in NS2 and NS3 proteins associated with poor treatment outcomes emphasises the value of systematic genome-wide analyses of viruses in uncovering clinically relevant polymorphisms that impact treatment

Long-Term Secondary Care Costs of Endometrial Cancer: A Prospective Cohort Study Nested within the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS).

BACKGROUND: There is limited evidence on the costs of Endometrial Cancer (EC) by stage of disease. We estimated the long-term secondary care costs of EC according to stage at diagnosis in an English population-based cohort. METHODS: Women participating in UKCTOCS and diagnosed with EC following enrolment (2001-2005) and prior to 31st Dec 2009 were identified to have EC through multiple sources. Survival was calculated through data linkage to death registry. Costs estimates were derived from hospital records accessed from Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) with additional patient level covariates derived from case notes and patient questionnaires. Missing and censored data was imputed using Multiple Imputation. Regression analysis of cost and survival was undertaken. RESULTS: 491 of 641 women with EC were included. Five year total costs were strongly dependent on stage, ranging from £9,475 (diagnosis at stage IA/IB) to £26,080 (diagnosis at stage III). Stage, grade and BMI were the strongest predictors of costs. The majority of costs for stage I/II EC were incurred in the first six months after diagnosis while for stage III / IV considerable costs accrued after the first six months. CONCLUSIONS: In addition to survival advantages, there are significant cost savings if patients with EC are detected earlier.The analysis underpinning this study was supported with a grant from Cancer Research UK (CRUK Grant No: A16008) awarded to RL (http://www.cancerresearchuk. org/funding-for-researchers). The trial (UKCTOCS) for which the patients in this study form a subgroup was funded by the Medical Research Council, Cancer Research UK, the Department of Health and the Eve Appeal