Precursors to potential severe core damage accidents: 1994, a status report. Volume 22: Appendix I

Nine operational events that affected eleven commercial light-water reactors (LWRs) during 1994 and that are considered to be precursors to potential severe core damage are described. All these events had conditional probabilities of subsequent severe core damage greater than or equal to 1.0 {times} 10{sup {minus}6}. These events were identified by computer-screening the 1994 licensee event reports from commercial LWRs to identify those that could be potential precursors. Candidate precursors were then selected and evaluated in a process similar to that used in previous assessments. Selected events underwent engineering evaluation that identified, analyzed, and documented the precursors. Other events designated by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) also underwent a similar evaluation. Finally, documented precursors were submitted for review by licensees and NRC headquarters and regional offices to ensure that the plant design and its response to the precursor were correctly characterized. This study is a continuation of earlier work, which evaluated 1969--1981 and 1984--1993 events. The report discusses the general rationale for this study, the selection and documentation of events as precursors, and the estimation of conditional probabilities of subsequent severe core damage for events. This document is bound in two volumes: Vol. 21 contains the main report and Appendices A--H; Vol. 22 contains Appendix 1

Precursors to potential severe core damage accidents: 1994, a status report. Volume 21: Main report and appendices A--H

Nine operational events that affected eleven commercial light-water reactors (LWRs) during 1994 and that are considered to be precursors to potential severe core damage are described. All these events had conditional probabilities of subsequent severe core damage greater than or equal to 1.0 {times} 10{sup {minus}6}. These events were identified by computer-screening the 1994 licensee event reports from commercial LWRs to identify those that could be potential precursors. Candidate precursors were then selected and evaluated in a process similar to that used in previous assessments. Selected events underwent engineering evaluation that identified, analyzed, and documented the precursors. Other events designated by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) also underwent a similar evaluation. Finally, documented precursors were submitted for review by licensees and NRC headquarters and regional offices to ensure that the plant design and its response to the precursor were correctly characterized. This study is a continuation of earlier work, which evaluated 1969--1981 and 1984--1993 events. The report discusses the general rationale for this study, the selection and documentation of events as precursors, and the estimation of conditional probabilities of subsequent severe core damage for events. This document is bound in two volumes: Vol. 21 contains the main report and Appendices A--H; Vol. 22 contains Appendix 1

The Accident Sequence Precursor program: Methods improvements and current results

Changes in the US NRC Accident Sequence Precursor program methods since the initial program evaluations of 1969-81 operational events are described, along with insights from the review of 1984-85 events. For 1984-85, the number of significant precursors was consistent with the number observed in 1980-81, dominant sequences associated with significant events were reasonably consistent with PRA estimates for BWRs, but lacked the contribution due to small-break LOCAs previously observed and predicted in PWRs, and the frequency of initiating events and non-recoverable system failures exhibited some reduction compared to 1980-81. Operational events which provide information concerning additional PRA modeling needs are also described

Precursor analysis for offshore oil and gas drilling : from prescriptive to risk-informed regulation

The Oil Spill Commission’s chartered mission - to “develop options to guard against … any oil spills associated with offshore drilling in the future” (National Commission 2010) - presents a major challenge: how to reduce the risk of low-frequency oil spill events, and especially high-consequence events like the Deepwater Horizon accident, when historical experience contains few oil spills of material scale and none approaching the significance of the Deepwater Horizon. In this paper, we consider precursor analysis as an answer to this challenge, addressing first its development and use in nuclear reactor regulation and then its applicability to offshore oil and gas drilling. We find that the nature of offshore drilling risks, the operating information obtainable by the regulator, and the learning curve provided by 30 years of nuclear experience make precursor analysis a promising option available to the U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement (BOEMRE) to bring cost-effective, risk-informed oversight to bear on the threat of catastrophic oil spills

Precursors to potential severe core damage accidents: 1994, a status report. Volume 22: Appendix I

Nine operational events that affected eleven commercial light-water reactors (LWRs) during 1994 and that are considered to be precursors to potential severe core damage are described. All these events had conditional probabilities of subsequent severe core damage greater than or equal to 1.0 {times} 10{sup {minus}6}. These events were identified by computer-screening the 1994 licensee event reports from commercial LWRs to identify those that could be potential precursors. Candidate precursors were then selected and evaluated in a process similar to that used in previous assessments. Selected events underwent engineering evaluation that identified, analyzed, and documented the precursors. Other events designated by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) also underwent a similar evaluation. Finally, documented precursors were submitted for review by licensees and NRC headquarters and regional offices to ensure that the plant design and its response to the precursor were correctly characterized. This study is a continuation of earlier work, which evaluated 1969--1981 and 1984--1993 events. The report discusses the general rationale for this study, the selection and documentation of events as precursors, and the estimation of conditional probabilities of subsequent severe core damage for events. This document is bound in two volumes: Vol. 21 contains the main report and Appendices A--H; Vol. 22 contains Appendix 1

Precursors to potential severe core damage accidents: 1997 -- A status report. Volume 26

This report describes the five operational events in 1997 that affected five commercial light-water reactors (LWRs) and that are considered to be precursors to potential severe core damage accidents. All these events had conditional probabilities of subsequent severe core damage greater than or equal to 1.0 {times} 10{sup {minus}6}. These events were identified by first computer-screening the 1997 licensee event reports from commercial LWRs to identify those events that could be precursors. Candidate precursors were selected and evaluated in a process similar to that used in previous assessments. Selected events underwent engineering evaluation that identified, analyzed, and documented the precursors. Other events designated by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) also underwent a similar evaluation. Finally, documented precursors were submitted for review by licensees and NRC headquarters to ensure that the plant design and its response to the precursor were correctly characterized. This study is a continuation of earlier work, which evaluated 1969--1996 events. The report discusses the general rationale for this study, the selection and documentation of events as precursors, and the estimation of conditional probabilities of subsequent severe core damage for the events