285 research outputs found
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Placing limits on long-term variations in quiet-Sun irradiance and their contribution to total solar irradiance and solar radiative forcing of climate
Recent reconstructions of Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) postulate that quiet Sun variations could give significant changes to solar power input to Earth’s climate (radiative climate forcings of 0.7-1.1Wm-2 over 1700-2019) arising from changes in quiet-Sun magnetic fields that have not, as yet, been observed. Reconstructions without such changes yield solar forcings that are smaller by a factor of more than 10. We study the quiet-Sun TSI since 1995 for three reasons: (1) this interval shows rapid decay in average solar activity following the grand solar maximum in 1985 (such that activity in 2019 was broadly equivalent to that in 1900); (2) there is improved consensus between TSI observations; and (3) it contains the first modelling of TSI that is independent of the observations. Our analysis shows the most likely upward drift in quiet-Sun radiative forcing since 1700 is between +0.07 and 0.13Wm-2. Hence we cannot yet discriminate between the quiet-Sun TSI being enhanced or reduced during the Maunder and Dalton sunspot minima, although there is a growing consensus from the combinations of models and observations that it was slightly enhanced. We present reconstructions that add quiet-Sun TSI and its uncertainty to models that reconstruct the effects of sunspots and faculae
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Flux transfer events at the dayside magnetopause: transient reconnection or magnetosheath dynamic pressure pulses?
The suggestion is discussed that characteristic particle and field signatures at the dayside magnetopause, termed “flux transfer events” (FTEs), are, in at least some cases, due to transient solar wind and/or magnetosheath dynamic pressure increases, rather than time-dependent magnetic reconnection. It is found that most individual cases of FTEs observed by a single spacecraft can, at least qualitatively, be explained by the pressure pulse model, provided a few rather unsatisfactory features of the predictions are explained in terms of measurement uncertainties. The most notable exceptions to this are some “two-regime” observations made by two satellites simultaneously, one on either side of the magnetopause. However, this configuration has not been frequently achieved for sufficient time, such observations are rare, and the relevant tests are still not conclusive. The strongest evidence that FTEs are produced by magnetic reconnection is the dependence of their occurrence on the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) or of the magnetosheath field. The pressure pulse model provides an explanation for this dependence (albeit qualitative) in the case of magnetosheath FTEs, but this does not apply to magnetosphere FTEs. The only surveys of magnetosphere FTEs have not employed the simultaneous IMF, but have shown that their occurrence is strongly dependent on the north-south component of the magnetosheath field, as observed earlier/later on the same magnetopause crossing (for inbound/outbound passes, respectively). This paper employs statistics on the variability of the IMF orientation to investigate the effects of IMF changes between the times of the magnetosheath and FTE observations. It is shown that the previously published results are consistent with magnetospheric FTEs being entirely absent when the magnetosheath field is northward: all crossings with magnetosphere FTEs and a northward field can be attributed to the field changing sense while the satellite was within the magnetosphere (but close enough to the magnetopause to detect an FTE). Allowance for the IMF variability also makes the occurrence frequency of magnetosphere FTEs during southward magnetosheath fields very similar to that observed for magnetosheath FTEs. Conversely, the probability of attaining the observed occurrence frequencies for the pressure pulse model is 10−14. In addition, it is argued that some magnetosheath FTEs should, for the pressure pulse model, have been observed for northward IMF: the probability that the number is as low as actually observed is estimated to be 10−10. It is concluded that although the pressure model can be invoked to qualitatively explain a large number of individual FTE observations, the observed occurrence statistics are in gross disagreement with this model
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Cluster's last stand?
On 4 June last year the first attempt to make three-dimensional measurements in space was lost when the Ariane 5 rocket veered off course and self-destructed, 39 s into its maiden flight. On board were four identical spacecraft which made up Cluster,a mission that the European Space
Agency called a “cornerstone” of its Horizon 2000 scientific programme. A full description of the Cluster satellites is given in a special issue of Space Science
Reviews (Escoubet et al. 1997). Their loss dealt a devastating blow to the Cluster scientists and to those working on other missions and projects planned to
interact with Cluster. Many discoveries have been made during the 15 years in which Cluster progressed from an idea to the state-of-the-art satellites that were on
top of Ariane 501 on 4 June. However, these discoveries invariably underline rather than undermine the importance of
Cluster. Now plans to recover the unique and exciting research that was to be done using Cluster are well advanced
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Thermospheric Control of the Auroral Source of O+Ions for the Magnetosphere
Linear theory, model ion-density profiles and MSIS neutral thermospheric predictions are used to investigate the stability of the auroral, topside ionosphere to oxygen cyclotron waves: variations of the critical height, above which the plasma is unstable, with field-aligned current, thermal ion density and exospheric temperature are considered. In addition, probabilities are assessed that interactions with neutral atomic gases prevent O+ ions from escaping into the magnetosphere after they have been transversely accelerated by these waves. The two studies are combined to give a rough estimate of the total O+ escape flux as a function of the field-aligned current density for an assumed rise in the perpendicular ion temperature. Charge exchange with neutral oxygen, not hydrogen, is shown to be the principle limitation to the escape of O+ ions, which occurs when the waves are driven unstable down to low altitudes. It is found that the largest observed field-aligned current densities can heat a maximum of about 5×1014 O+ ions m−2 to a threshold above which they are subsequently able to escape into the magnetosphere in the following 500s. Averaged over this period, this would constitute a flux of 1012 m−2 s−1 and in steady-state the peak outflow would then be limited to about 1013 m−2 s−1 by frictional drag on thermal O+ at lower altitudes. Maximum escape is at low plasma density unless the O+ scale height is very large. The outflow decreases with decreasing field-aligned current density and, to a lesser extent, with increasing exospheric temperature. Upward flowing ion events are evaluated as a source of O+ ions for the magnetosphere and as an explanation of the observed solar cycle variation of ring current O+ abundance
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Jim Dungey, the open magnetosphere, and space weather
In 1961, James W. Dungey published a remarkable two-page paper in Physics Review Letters that revolutionized our understanding of the Earth's magnetosphere. In it, he used his concept of “magnetic reconnection” to introduce the open magnetosphere model. Dungey died in 2015 but his idea does a great deal more than just live on in the literature. In addition to making sense of the magnetosphere, it has established key applications in astrophysics, planetary physics, solar and heliospheric physics, and fusion energy research – in fact, any area involving ionized gases threaded by magnetic fields. It is now the basis of our understanding and prediction of space weather phenomena
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A simple model of the effects of the mid-latitude total ion trough in the bottomsideFlayer on HF radiowave propagation
Observations of the amplitudes and Doppler shifts of received HF radio waves are compared with model predictions made using a two-dimensional ray-tracing program. The signals are propagated over a sub-auroral path, which is shown to lie along the latitudes of the mid-latitude trough at times of low geomagnetic activity. Generalizing the predictions to include a simple model of the trough in the density and height of the F2 peak enables the explanation of the anomalous observed diurnal variations. The behavior of received amplitude, Doppler shift, and signal-to-noise ratio as a function of the Kp index value, the time of day, and the season (in 17 months of continuous recording) is found to agree closely with that predicted using the statistical position of the trough as deduced from 8 years of Alouette satellite soundings. The variation in the times of the observation of large signal amplitudes with the Kp value and the complete absence of such amplitudes when it exceeds 2.75 are two features that implicate the trough in these effects
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The rough guide to the Moon and Mars
Space is a dangerous place for humans, once we step beyond the rotection of Earth’s atmosphere and magnetic field. Galactic cosmic rays and bursts of charged particles
from the Sun damaging to health happen with alarming frequency – the Apollo astronauts were very lucky. Understanding the physics of radiation from distinct sources in space will be useful to help future space voyagers plan journeys in greater safety, and produce
effective shields for these unavoidable events on journeys to Mars or beyond
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Relationship between the near-Earth interplanetary field and the coronal source flux: dependence on timescale
The Ulysses spacecraft has shown that the radial component of the heliospheric magnetic field is approximately independent of latitude. This has allowed quantification of the total open solar flux from near-Earth observations of the interplanetary magnetic field. The open flux can also be estimated from photospheric magnetograms by mapping the fields up to the ‘‘coronal source surface’’ where the field is assumed to be radial and which is usually assumed to be at a heliocentric distance r = 2.5R_{S} (a mean solar radius, 1R_{S} = 6.96x10^{8} m). These two classes of open flux estimate will differ by the open flux that threads the heliospheric current sheet(s) inside Earth’s orbit at 2.5R_{S} < r < 1R{1} (where the mean Earth-Sun distance, 1R_{1} = 1 AU = 1.5 x 10^{11} m). We here use near-Earth measurements to estimate this flux and show that at sunspot minimum it causes only a very small (approximately 0.5%) systematic difference between the two types of open flux estimate, with an uncertainty that is of order ±24% in hourly values, ±16% in monthly averages, and between -6% and +2% in annual values. These fractions may be somewhat larger for sunspot maximum because of flux emerging at higher heliographic latitudes
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Reconstruction and prediction of variations in the open solar magnetic flux and interplanetary conditions
Historic geomagnetic activity observations have been used to reveal centennial variations in the open solar flux and the near-Earth heliospheric conditions (the interplanetary magnetic field and the solar wind speed). The various methods are in very good agreement for the past 135 years when there were sufficient reliable magnetic observatories in operation to eliminate problems due to site-specific errors and calibration drifts. This review underlines the physical principles that allow these reconstructions to be made, as well as the details of the various algorithms employed and the results obtained. Discussion is included of: the importance of the averaging timescale; the key differences between “range” and “interdiurnal variability”
geomagnetic data; the need to distinguish source field sector structure from heliospherically-imposed field structure; the importance of ensuring that regressions used are statistically robust; and uncertainty analysis. The reconstructions are exceedingly useful as they provide calibration between the in-situ spacecraft measurements from the past five decades and the millennial records of heliospheric behaviour deduced from measured abundances of cosmogenic radionuclides found in terrestrial reservoirs. Continuity of open solar flux, using sunspot number to quantify the emergence rate, is the basis of a number of models that have been very successful in reproducing the variation derived from geomagnetic activity. These models
allow us to extend the reconstructions back to before the development of the magnetometer and to cover the Maunder minimum. Allied to the radionuclide data, the models are revealing much about how the Sun and heliosphere behaved outside of grand solar maxima and are providing a means of predicting how solar activity is likely to evolve now that the recent grand maximum (that had prevailed throughout the space age) has come to an end
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Does adding solar wind Poynting flux improve the optimum solar wind - magnetosphere coupling function?
We study the contribution of the solar wind Poynting flux Ssw, to the total power input into the magnetosphere. The dominant power delivered by the solar wind is the kinetic energy flux of the particles which is larger than Ssw by a factor of order Ma^2, where Ma is the Alfvén Mach number The currents J flowing in the bow shock and magnetosheath and the electric field E of the solar wind give regions where J.E <0, which are sources of Poynting flux, generated from the kinetic energy flux. For southward IMF, E is duskward and the currents in the high-latitude tail magnetopause are also sources of Poynting flux. We show transfer of kinetic energy into the magnetosphere is less efficient than direct entry of Ssw by a factor Ma. Because Ma is typically of order 10, this means that although the power density in the solar wind due to Ssw is typically only 1%, it is responsible for of order 10% of the energy input to the magnetosphere. To investigate the effect of this, we add a term to the solar wind-magnetosphere energy coupling function that allows for Ssw which increases the correlation with the geomagnetic am index for 1995-2017 (inclusive) from 0.908 to 0.924 for 1-day averages and from 0.978 to 0.979 for annual means. The increase for means on daily or smaller timescales is a small improvement but is significant (at over the 3-sigma level), whereas the improvement for annual or Carrington-rotation means is not significant
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