Security, Governance, and State Fragility in South Africa

Do existing measures of state fragility measure fragility accurately? Based on commonly used fragility measures, South Africa (SA) is classified as a relatively stable state, yet rising violent crime, high unemployment, endemic poverty, eroding public trust, identity group based preferential treatment policies, and the rapid rise of the private security sector are all indications that SA may be suffering from latent state fragility. Based on a comprehensive view of security, this study examines the extent to which measures of political legitimacy and good governance, effectiveness in the security system – especially with respect to the police system – and mounting economic challenges may be undermining the stability of SA in ways undetected by commonly used measures of state fragility. Using a mixed-methods approach based on quantitative secondary data analysis and semi-structured interviews with government officials, security practitioners, and leading experts in the field, this study finds that the combination of colonization, apartheid, liberation struggle, transition from autocracy to democracy, high levels of direct and structural violence, stagnating social, political, and economic developments make South Africa a latently fragile state. Conceptually, the results of this research call into question the validity of commonly used measures of state fragility and suggest the need for a more comprehensive approach to assessing state fragility. Practically, this study offers a number of concrete policy recommendations for how South Africa may address mounting levels of latent state fragility

The Impact of Cyber-Physical Warfare on Global Human Security

Cyber is deeply enmeshed and interwoven across national security, as evidenced by its inclusion in the national security policies of a growing number of OECD countries. But it is the impact of cyber across the other components of national and human security that remains to be sufficiently addressed at the national policy level, or in international standards of behavior with respect to cyberwarfare and hybrid conflict. In addition to standing on its own as a national security concern, cybersecurity impacts economic and trade security, ecological/environmental and biosecurity, energy and critical infrastructure security, food security, transportation, and public health, as well as communications, physical and even political security. This work examines the role of threats from cyberwarfare, hybrid conflict, and cyber-physical attacks across human security from a national and global perspective, makes near-term predictions about the future of cyberwarfare, and provides recommendations with respect to preparing for cyberwarfare and ongoing hybrid conflict

From Armed Conflict to Disaster Vulnerability

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to estimate the effect of armed conflict on the vulnerability to natural hazards. Design/methodology/approach – The authors employ panel estimates of disaster deaths on a lagged indicator of the presence of armed conflict. Findings – Disaster deaths following armed conflict are on average 40 percent higher compared to disasters that are chronologically detached from armed conflict events; a legacy of armed conflict accounts for roughly 14 percent of the approximately five million disaster deaths between 1961 and 2010. Practical implications – A global estimate of the relationship between armed conflict and disaster vulnerability can help disaster management planners identify policy priorities associated with disaster prevention and management. Originality/value – The analysis reinforces the findings in previous qualitative studies of a causal link between armed conflict and increased disaster vulnerability and provides a quantitative estimate of the average magnitude of this relationship