Tariffs for European Gas Transmission Networks. Report on workshop proceedings

The mainline of the workshop was the transmission tariffs on gas network from a European perspective. Transmission is a key issue for the European gas system for two reasons. First, transmission tariff should incentivize the efficient use of infrastructure and so facilitate the development of competition. Second, transmission tariff should also give enough return to network investors so that they upgrade the network efficently compared to their current and future uses not only for national infrastructures but also for cross-border pipelines. Three issues were especially treated in the different sessions during the workshop namely: 1° competition and efficient use of the network, 2° investment in national infrastructures, and 3° investment in cross-border infrastructures. Key conclusions and open questions from the debate among regulators, TSOs, stakeholders and academic delegates are reported here.

The Gas Transportation Network as a ‘Lego’ Game: How to Play with It?

Gas transportation networks exhibit a quite substantial variety of technical and economical properties ranges roughly from an entrenched natural monopoly to near to an open competition platform. This empirical fact is widely known and accepted. However the corresponding frame of network analysis is lacking or quite fuzzy. As an infrastructure, can a gas network evolve or not from a natural monopoly (an essential facility) to an open infrastructure (a highway facility)? How can it be done with the same transportation infrastructure components within the same physical gas laws? Our paper provides a unified analytical frame for all types of gas transportation networks. It shows that gas transport networks are made of several components which can be combined in different ways. This very lego property of gas networks permits different designs with different economic properties while a certain infrastructural base and set of gas laws is common to all transportation networks. Therefore the notion of gas transportation network as a general and abstract concept does not have robust economic properties. The variety and modularity of gas networks come from the diversity of components, the variety of components combinations and the historical inclusion of components in the network. First, a gas network can combine different types of network components (primary or secondary ones). Second, the same components can be combined in different ways (notably regarding actual connections and flow paths). Third, as a capital-intensive infrastructure combining various specific assets, gas transportation networks show strong path dependency properties as they evolve slowly over time by moving from an already existing base. The heterogeneity of gas networks as sets of components comes firstly from the heterogeneity of the network components themselves, secondly from the different possibilities to combine these components and thirdly from the ‘path dependence’ character of gas network constructions. These three characteristics of gas networks explain the diversity of economic proprieties of the existent gas networks going from natural monopoly to competitive markets.

Interaction between gas and electricity market-based trading in the short run

Gas-fired power plants are increasingly used in the production of electricity, which in turn makes them a relevant part of the gas demand. In this paper, we investigate whether the current designs of gas and power markets are robust to the relatively new link between industries. Specifically, we study the cross-industry efficiency losses associated with designs aimed at increasing liquidity by limiting the amount of network services allocated through markets. In the short run, reducing the set of transmission services priced in one market (say gas) affects the use of transmission in the other market (say power). This may result in inefficiencies that should be accounted for when deciding on the network services to be allocated through market arrangements in each industry. We also identify long-term effects of such design strategies: the allocation of gas pipeline storage and transmission services without preference representation may weaken localization signals for power plants investment. In addition, lack of harmonization of market designs may raise barriers to network investment

LDP Academic Roundtable: Redesigning Gas and Electricity Markets to Work Together

QM-AI-12-008-EN-CQM-AI-12-008-EN-

Gas Market Distorting Effects of Imbalanced Gas Balancing Rules: Inefficient Regulation of Pipeline Flexibility

This paper analyzes the value and cost of line-pack flexibility in liberalized gas markets through examination of the techno-economic characteristics of gas transport pipelines and the trade-offs between different ways to use the infrastructure: transport and flexibility. Line-pack flexibility is becoming increasingly important as a tool to balance gas supply and demand over different periods. In the European liberalized market context, a monopolist unbundled network operator offers regulated transport services and flexibility (balancing) services according to the network code and balancing rules. Therefore, gas policy makers should understand the role and consequences of line-pack regulation. The analysis shows that the line-pack flexibility service has an important economic value for the shippers and the TSO. Furthermore, the analysis identifies distorting effects in the gas market due to inadequate regulation of line-pack flexibility: by disregarding the sunk costs of flexibility in the balancing rules, the overall efficiency of the gas system is decreased. Finally, the analysis demonstrates that the actual costs of line-pack flexibility are related to the peak cumulative imbalance throughout the balancing period. Any price for pipeline flexibility should, therefore, be based on the related trade-off between the right to use the line-pack flexibility and the provision of transport services

Gas Balancing Rules Must Take into account the Trade-off between Offering Pipeline Transport and Pipeline Flexibility in Liberalized Gas Markets

This paper analyses the value and cost of line-pack flexibility in liberalized gas markets through the examination of the techno-economic characteristics of gas transport pipelines and the trade-offs between the different ways to use the infrastructure: transport and flexibility. Line-pack flexibility is becoming increasingly important as a tool to balance gas supply and demand over different periods. In the European liberalized market context, a monopolist unbundled network operator offers regulated transport services and flexibility (balancing) services according to the network code and the balancing rules. Therefore, gas policy makers should understand the role and consequences of line-pack regulation. The analysis shows that the line-pack flexibility service has an important economic value for the shippers and the TSO. Furthermore, the analysis identifies distorting effects in the gas market due to inadequate regulation of line-pack flexibility: by disregarding the fixed cost of the flexibility in the balancing rules, the overall efficiency of the gas system is decreased. Because a full market based approach to line-pack pricing is unlikely, a framework is presented to calculate a cost reflective price for pipeline flexibility based on the trade-offs and opportunity costs between the right to use the line-pack flexibility and the provision of transport services.Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research

A brighter future : the impact of rural school electrification programs on the dropout rate in primary education in Brazil

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons IGO 3.0 Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives (CC-IGO BY-NC-ND 3.0 IGO) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/igo/legalcode)School electrification can decrease the gap between rural and urban education. The Brazilian policy focusing on electricity access in school decreased student’s dropout rate. Rural electrification programs – like Light for All – have been successful in increasing access to electricity services in Brazil, where 99.3% of the population has access. In terms of the public policy viewpoint, the cost-benefit analysis must consider not only the direct impact of the programs but also its positive externalities. In this paper, we study Light for All in Schools (LFAS, “Luz para Todos nas Escolas”), a program focused on providing access to electricity to rural schools. The study aims to measure the effect of access to electricity in rural schools on the dropout rate of students in primary education. Our goal is to create a dialogue between the studies on the benefits of electricity in vulnerable areas and the studies on education outcomes. Our results show that electrification programs, like the LFAS, have a significant effect on the dropout rate at rural schools. Schools that received electricity via the program before 2013 had an improvement of 16% (or 0.7 percentage points) in the dropout rate in three years, and schools that received benefits from program between 2013 and 2016 had an improvement of 27% (or 1 percentage point) in three years due to the access to electricity

La influencia del efecto de borde en el pronóstico de precipitaciones utilizando DWT diádica, MODWT, ANN y ANFIS

Se presentan los resultados que demuestran la influencia del efecto de borde al emplear modelos híbridos Wavelet Neuronal o Wavelet neurodifuso para pronosticar series de tiempo mensuales de lámina de precipitación con un mes de anticipación. Para la implementación de los modelo se utiliza la información de la estación climatológica ubicada en la presa Emilio López Zamora en la ciudad de Ensenada, al noroeste del Estado de Baja California, México. El estudio combina cuatro métodos: a) Transformada Wavelet Discreta con el algoritmo de Mallat (DWT): b) Transformada Wavelet Discreta de Máxima Superposición (MODWT); c) Feed Forward Back Propagation (FFBP), y, d) Adaptive-Networkbased Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). Se utilizan dos enfoques de preprocesamiento utilizados en la actualidad en la literatura para pronosticar series climáticas de variables hidrológicas. En el primer enfoque se emplean cuatro métodos para realizar la convolución de la transformada y se discute su relación con el fenómeno del efecto de borde. Los resultados muestran que el modelo híbrido utilizado influye de manera significativa para mejorar el entrenamiento de la red con fines de predicción, sin embargo, para la etapa de pronóstico sucede lo contrario debido al efecto de borde. En el segundo enfoque se encuentra que la serie de tiempo se tiene que reconstruir con coeficientes wavelet de escalas, que corresponden a un periodo de cinco años, y los resultados muestran que existe una componente de ruido significativa en la señal. Por último, se encontró que ANFIS autónomo es el método más sencillo y recomendable de utilizar para este tipo de series de tiempo

Modelación hidrológica e hidráulica de un río intraurbano en una cuenca transfronteriza con el apoyo del análisis regional de frecuencias

Las inundaciones se encuentran entre los peligros naturales más recurrentes y devastadores, al afectar vidas humanas y causar graves daños económicos en todo el mundo. Las regiones áridas y semiáridas son particularmente vulnerables a tormentas intensas en periodos cortos debido a que provocan inundaciones súbitas. Estas regiones representan un 30% del área mundial y están habitadas por 20% de la población. El objetivo principal del presente estudio es estimar la tormenta de diseño para los periodos de retorno de 20, 50, 100 y 500 años en la región semiárida de la subcuenca del Río Nuevo, a fin de determinar las áreas de inundación del cauce principal. Se propone un modelo integrado, que consiste en desarrollar un acoplamiento del modelo hidrológico e hidráulico para diferentes periodos de retorno, alimentados con un Análisis Regional de Frecuencia (ARF), utilizando el enfoque de los L-momentos, empleando los programas HEC-HMS y HEC-RAS. Las áreas de inundación obtenidas de 190.55 a 237.83 ha y profundidades desde 0.10 hasta 6.0 metros comprometen la infraestructura urbana de la ciudad. Los resultados de esta investigación pueden ser utilizados por organismos encargados de la planeación urbana para disminuir riesgos de inundación

Optimization of a Low Cost and Broadly Sensitive Genotyping Assay for HIV-1 Drug Resistance Surveillance and Monitoring in Resource-Limited Settings

Commercially available HIV-1 drug resistance (HIVDR) genotyping assays are expensive and have limitations in detecting non-B subtypes and circulating recombinant forms that are co-circulating in resource-limited settings (RLS). This study aimed to optimize a low cost and broadly sensitive in-house assay in detecting HIVDR mutations in the protease (PR) and reverse transcriptase (RT) regions of pol gene. The overall plasma genotyping sensitivity was 95.8% (N = 96). Compared to the original in-house assay and two commercially available genotyping systems, TRUGENE® and ViroSeq®, the optimized in-house assay showed a nucleotide sequence concordance of 99.3%, 99.6% and 99.1%, respectively. The optimized in-house assay was more sensitive in detecting mixture bases than the original in-house (N = 87, P<0.001) and TRUGENE® and ViroSeq® assays. When the optimized in-house assay was applied to genotype samples collected for HIVDR surveys (N = 230), all 72 (100%) plasma and 69 (95.8%) of the matched dried blood spots (DBS) in the Vietnam transmitted HIVDR survey were genotyped and nucleotide sequence concordance was 98.8%; Testing of treatment-experienced patient plasmas with viral load (VL) ≥ and <3 log10 copies/ml from the Nigeria and Malawi surveys yielded 100% (N = 46) and 78.6% (N = 14) genotyping rates, respectively. Furthermore, all 18 matched DBS stored at room temperature from the Nigeria survey were genotyped. Phylogenetic analysis of the 236 sequences revealed that 43.6% were CRF01_AE, 25.9% subtype C, 13.1% CRF02_AG, 5.1% subtype G, 4.2% subtype B, 2.5% subtype A, 2.1% each subtype F and unclassifiable, 0.4% each CRF06_CPX, CRF07_BC and CRF09_CPX