Progetto pilota per lo studio multidisciplinare ed integrato su un sottobacino del Lago Maggiore

No abstract availableComposizione granulometrica del sedimento; campionament

Idrochimica lacustre e dei tributari, bilancio dei nutrienti

No abstract availabl

A non-deterministic approach to forecasting the trophic evolution of lakes

Limnologists have long recognized that one of the goals of their discipline is to increase its predictive capability. In recent years, the role of prediction in applied ecology escalated, mainly due to man\u27s increased ability to change the biosphere. Such alterations often came with unplanned and noticeably negative side effects mushrooming from lack of proper attention to long-term consequences. Regression analysis of common limnological parameters has been successfully applied to develop predictive models relating the variability of limnological parameters to specific key causes. These approaches, though, are biased by the requirement of a priori cause-relation assumption, oftentimes difficult to find in the complex, nonlinear relationships entangling ecological data. A set of quantitative tools that can help addressing current environmental challenges avoiding such restrictions is currently being researched and developed within the framework of ecological informatics. One of these approaches attempting to model the relationship between a set of inputs and known outputs, is based on genetic algorithms and programming (GP). This stochastic optimization tool is based on the process of evolution in natural systems and was inspired by a direct analogy to sexual reproduction and Charles Darwin\u27s principle of natural selection. GP works through genetic algorithms that use selection and recombination operators to generate a population of equations. Thanks to a 25-years long time-series of regular limnological data, the deep, large, oligotrophic Lake Maggiore (Northern Italy) is the ideal case study to test the predictive ability of GP. Testing of GP on the multi-year data series of this lake has allowed us to verify the forecasting efficacy of the models emerging from GP application. In addition, this non-deterministic approach leads to the discovery of non-obvious relationships between variables and enabled the formulation of new stochastic models

Model simulations of the ecological dynamics induced by climate and nutrient load changes for deep subalpine Lake Maggiore (Italy/Switzerland)

Climate warming affects lake ecosystems both through its direct effect on the phenology of species and through the alteration of the physical and chemical environments, which in turn affect community composition. In deep lakes, stratification enhancement and mixing reduction have already been observed, leading to hypolimnetic anoxia and to the rise of cyanophytes. The increase in stability depends on the rise of air temperature due to global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). Primary production could then either increase with rising epilimnetic temperature and buoyancy or decrease as fewer nutrients are upwelled from deep layers. The prevailing outcome, as well as the quantitative and temporal dynamics of all climate-induced modifications, depend on the specific lake characteristics. Individual analyses are then needed, one-dimensional coupled hydrodynamic-ecological numerical models being suitable tools for such predictions. Here, we simulated with GLM-AED2 (General Lake Model – Aquatic EcoDynamics) the 2020-2085 dynamics of the oligomictic and oligotrophic deep subalpine Lake Maggiore (Italy/Switzerland), according to the Swiss Climate Change Scenarios CH2011. Multiple realisations were performed for each scenario with random meteorological series obtained from the Vector-Autoregressive Weather Generator (VG), highlighting the uncertainties related to meteorology. Increase and decrease of nutrient loads were also tested. Results show that anoxia would occur in the hypolimnion regardless of nutrient input reduction, unless global GHG emissions were immediately reduced. Total phytoplankton biomass would be weakly affected by climate change, strongly depending on nutrient input, yet water warming would cause cyanophytes to compete with diatoms. Therefore, the fate of Lake Maggiore would be tied to both global and local environmental policies

Effects of water level management on lake littorals and downstream river areas

The Interreg “Parks Verbano Ticino” (PVT) project was conceived within the technical committee dedicated to the “Experimentation of the regulation of the Lake Maggiore levels” following the requests of the water manager to raise the spring-summer maximum levels of the lake compared to the levels normally held in the same period to respond to the industrial, agricultural, touristic, and environmental needs...