Using mixed methods in monitoring and evaluation : experiences from international development

This paper provides an overview of the various ways in which mixing qualitative and quantitative methods could add value to monitoring and evaluating development projects. In particular it examines how qualitative methods could address some of the limitations of randomized trials and other quantitative impact evaluation methods; it also explores the importance of examining"process"in addition to"impact", distinguishing design from implementation failures, and the value of mixed methods in the real-time monitoring of projects. It concludes by suggesting topics for future research -- including the use of mixed methods in constructing counterfactuals, and in conducting reasonable evaluations within severe time and budget constraints.Poverty Monitoring&Analysis,Scientific Research&Science Parks,Science Education,Poverty Impact Evaluation,Statistical&Mathematical Sciences

Cross-validation and Peeling Strategies for Survival Bump Hunting using Recursive Peeling Methods

We introduce a framework to build a survival/risk bump hunting model with a censored time-to-event response. Our Survival Bump Hunting (SBH) method is based on a recursive peeling procedure that uses a specific survival peeling criterion derived from non/semi-parametric statistics such as the hazards-ratio, the log-rank test or the Nelson-Aalen estimator. To optimize the tuning parameter of the model and validate it, we introduce an objective function based on survival or prediction-error statistics, such as the log-rank test and the concordance error rate. We also describe two alternative cross-validation techniques adapted to the joint task of decision-rule making by recursive peeling and survival estimation. Numerical analyses show the importance of replicated cross-validation and the differences between criteria and techniques in both low and high-dimensional settings. Although several non-parametric survival models exist, none addresses the problem of directly identifying local extrema. We show how SBH efficiently estimates extreme survival/risk subgroups unlike other models. This provides an insight into the behavior of commonly used models and suggests alternatives to be adopted in practice. Finally, our SBH framework was applied to a clinical dataset. In it, we identified subsets of patients characterized by clinical and demographic covariates with a distinct extreme survival outcome, for which tailored medical interventions could be made. An R package `PRIMsrc` is available on CRAN and GitHub.Comment: Keywords: Exploratory Survival/Risk Analysis, Survival/Risk Estimation & Prediction, Non-Parametric Method, Cross-Validation, Bump Hunting, Rule-Induction Metho

Nitric Oxide Mediates Biofilm Formation and Symbiosis in Silicibacter sp. Strain TrichCH4B.

UnlabelledNitric oxide (NO) plays an important signaling role in all domains of life. Many bacteria contain a heme-nitric oxide/oxygen binding (H-NOX) protein that selectively binds NO. These H-NOX proteins often act as sensors that regulate histidine kinase (HK) activity, forming part of a bacterial two-component signaling system that also involves one or more response regulators. In several organisms, NO binding to the H-NOX protein governs bacterial biofilm formation; however, the source of NO exposure for these bacteria is unknown. In mammals, NO is generated by the enzyme nitric oxide synthase (NOS) and signals through binding the H-NOX domain of soluble guanylate cyclase. Recently, several bacterial NOS proteins have also been reported, but the corresponding bacteria do not also encode an H-NOX protein. Here, we report the first characterization of a bacterium that encodes both a NOS and H-NOX, thus resembling the mammalian system capable of both synthesizing and sensing NO. We characterized the NO signaling pathway of the marine alphaproteobacterium Silicibacter sp. strain TrichCH4B, determining that the NOS is activated by an algal symbiont, Trichodesmium erythraeum. NO signaling through a histidine kinase-response regulator two-component signaling pathway results in increased concentrations of cyclic diguanosine monophosphate, a key bacterial second messenger molecule that controls cellular adhesion and biofilm formation. Silicibacter sp. TrichCH4B biofilm formation, activated by T. erythraeum, may be an important mechanism for symbiosis between the two organisms, revealing that NO plays a previously unknown key role in bacterial communication and symbiosis.ImportanceBacterial nitric oxide (NO) signaling via heme-nitric oxide/oxygen binding (H-NOX) proteins regulates biofilm formation, playing an important role in protecting bacteria from oxidative stress and other environmental stresses. Biofilms are also an important part of symbiosis, allowing the organism to remain in a nutrient-rich environment. In this study, we show that in Silicibacter sp. strain TrichCH4B, NO mediates symbiosis with the alga Trichodesmium erythraeum, a major marine diazotroph. In addition, Silicibacter sp. TrichCH4B is the first characterized bacteria to harbor both the NOS and H-NOX proteins, making it uniquely capable of both synthesizing and sensing NO, analogous to mammalian NO signaling. Our study expands current understanding of the role of NO in bacterial signaling, providing a novel role for NO in bacterial communication and symbiosis

Exponential Separation of Quantum Communication and Classical Information

We exhibit a Boolean function for which the quantum communication complexity is exponentially larger than the classical information complexity. An exponential separation in the other direction was already known from the work of Kerenidis et. al. [SICOMP 44, pp. 1550-1572], hence our work implies that these two complexity measures are incomparable. As classical information complexity is an upper bound on quantum information complexity, which in turn is equal to amortized quantum communication complexity, our work implies that a tight direct sum result for distributional quantum communication complexity cannot hold. The function we use to present such a separation is the Symmetric k-ary Pointer Jumping function introduced by Rao and Sinha [ECCC TR15-057], whose classical communication complexity is exponentially larger than its classical information complexity. In this paper, we show that the quantum communication complexity of this function is polynomially equivalent to its classical communication complexity. The high-level idea behind our proof is arguably the simplest so far for such an exponential separation between information and communication, driven by a sequence of round-elimination arguments, allowing us to simplify further the approach of Rao and Sinha. As another application of the techniques that we develop, we give a simple proof for an optimal trade-off between Alice's and Bob's communication while computing the related Greater-Than function on n bits: say Bob communicates at most b bits, then Alice must send n/exp(O(b)) bits to Bob. This holds even when allowing pre-shared entanglement. We also present a classical protocol achieving this bound.Comment: v1, 36 pages, 3 figure

How and why does history matter for development policy ?

The consensus among scholars and policymakers that"institutions matter"for development has led inexorably to a conclusion that"history matters,"since institutions clearlyform and evolve over time. Unfortunately, however, the next logical step has not yet been taken, which is to recognize that historians (and not only economic historians) might also have useful and distinctive insights to offer. This paper endeavors to open and sustain a constructive dialogue between history -- understood as both"the past"and"the discipline"-- and development policy by (a) clarifying what the craft of historical scholarship entails, especially as it pertains to understanding causal mechanisms, contexts, and complex processes of institutional change; (b) providing examples of historical research that support, qualify, or challenge the most influential research (by economists and economic historians) in contemporary development policy; and (c) offering some general principles and specific implications that historians, on the basis of the distinctive content and method of their research, bring to development policy debates.Cultural Policy,Economic Theory&Research,Population Policies,Cultural Heritage&Preservation,Development Economics&Aid Effectiveness

Near Infrared Spectroscopy Describes Physiologic Payback Associated With Excess Postexercise Oxygen Consumption in Healthy Controls and Children With Complex Congenital Heart Disease

Exercise creates a physiologic burden with recovery from such effort crucial to adaptation. Excess postexercise oxygen consumption (EPOC) refers to the body’s increased metabolic need after work. This investigation was designed to determine the role of near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) in the description of exercise recovery in healthy controls (NL) and children with congenital heart disease (CHD). Subjects were recruited with exercise testing performed to exhaustion. Exercise time (EXT), heart rate (HR), and oxygen consumption (VO2) were measured. Four-site NIRS (brain, kidney, deltoid, and vastus lateralis) were measured during exercise and into recovery to establish trends. Fifty individuals were recruited for each group (NL = 26 boys and 24 girls; CHD = 33 boys and 17 girls). Significant differences existed between EXT, VO2, and peak HR (P \u3c 0.01). NIRS values were examined at four distinct intervals: rest, peak work, and 2 and 5 min after exercise. Significant cerebral hyperemia was seen in children with CHD post exercise when compared to normal individuals in whom redistribution patterns were directed to somatic muscles. These identified trends support an immediate compensation of organ systems to re-establish homeostasis in peripheral beds through enhanced perfusion. Noninvasive NIRS monitoring helps delineate patterns of redistribution associated with EPOC in healthy adolescents and children with CHD

DETERMINANTS OF RESTRUCTURED FARM LOAN PERFORMANCE

A probabilistic model is applied to cross-sectional data to identify determinants of post-restructure performance of Federal Land Bank loans. The results indicate that restructured loans were sensitive to factors that determine the debt repayment burden and the repayment ability of the restructured farm operations. Loan performance is found to be relatively more sensitive to the levels of the post-restructure interest rate and cash farm income than to the financial structure and leverage position of the restructured farm. The relationships between the post-restructure interest rate, cash farm income level, and the probability of loan performance are illustrated.Agricultural Finance,