Integration of the ecological and error models of overconfidence using a multiple-trace memory model.

This research examined a memory processes account of the calibration of probability judgments. A multiple-trace memory model, MINERVA-DM (MDM; Dougherty, Ogden, & Gettys, 1999), was used to integrate the ecological (Brunswikian) and the error (Thurstonian) models of overconfidence. The model predicts that overconfidence should decrease both as a function of experience and as a function of encoding quality. Both increased experience and improved encoding quality result in lower error variance in the output of the model, which in turn leads to better calibration. Three experiments confirmed these predictions. Implications of MDM's account of overconfidence are discussed

RELIABILTY OF ELECTROMAGNETIC TRACKING IN DESCRIBING PITCHING MECHANICS

The purpose of this study was to establish the reliability of an electromagnetic tracking device (ETD) in analyzing young baseball pitchers. Two data collection sessions in which throwing kinematics were recorded were conducted across a five day span. Joint kinematics were calculated using the International Shoulder Group recommendations. Correlation analyses examining inter-day reliability of the ETD showed that the system was within acceptable limits (r > 0.73). Throughout the selected instances of the pitch cycle, the ETD used in the current study was shown to be reliable across multiple data collection session with ICCs ranging from r = 0.73 to 0.86. It appears so long as the setup, sensor attachment, and digitization protocols remain consistent across data collection sessions, ETD’s are a reliable tool in analyzing throwing movements in younger subjects

Reply to Rouder (2014) : good frequentist properties raise confidence

Established psychological results have been called into question by demonstrations that statistical significance is easy to achieve, even in the absence of an effect. One often-warned-against practice, choosing when to stop the experiment on the basis of the results, is guaranteed to produce significant results. In response to these demonstrations, Bayes factors have been proposed as an antidote to this practice, because they are invariant with respect to how an experiment was stopped. Should researchers only care about the resulting Bayes factor, without concern for how it was produced? Yu, Sprenger, Thomas, and Dougherty (2014) and Sanborn and Hills (2014) demonstrated that Bayes factors are sometimes strongly influenced by the stopping rules used. However, Rouder (2014) has provided a compelling demonstration that despite this influence, the evidence supplied by Bayes factors remains correct. Here we address why the ability to influence Bayes factors should still matter to researchers, despite the correctness of the evidence. We argue that good frequentist properties mean that results will more often agree with researchers’ statistical intuitions, and good frequentist properties control the number of studies that will later be refuted. Both help raise confidence in psychological results

Workload and Performance in FOPA: A Strategic Planning Interface for Air Traffic Control

The Flight Organizer Planning Aid (FOPA) interface was designed to aid strategic planning in air traffic control. In particular, FOPA was designed to address difficulties in solving en route sequencing problems (combining multiple streams of traffic into a single stream heading for a destination). We compared the planning performance of 12 full performance level air traffic controllers using either the FOPA interface or normal flight progress strips. Planning performance was significantly better when using FOPA; subjective workload was also reduced. The results indicate that a key advantage of FOPA lies in its dynamic linkage between the flight organizer screen where aircraft tokens can be categorized into color-coded blocks and their matching spatial representation on the radar.Yeshttps://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/manuscript-submission-guideline

Implications of Cognitive Load for Hypothesis Generation and Probability Judgment

We tested the predictions of HyGene (Thomas et al., 2008) that both divided attention at encoding and judgment should affect the degree to which participants’ probability judgments violate the principle of additivity. In two experiments, we showed that divided attention during judgment leads to an increase in subadditivity, suggesting that the comparison process for probability judgments is capacity limited. Contrary to the predictions of HyGene, a third experiment revealed that divided attention during encoding leads to an increase in later probability judgment made under full attention. The effect of divided attention during encoding on judgment was completely mediated by the number of hypotheses participants generated, indicating that limitations in both encoding and recall can cascade into biases in judgments

A Neutron Star with a Massive Progenitor in Westerlund 1

We report the discovery of an X-ray pulsar in the young, massive Galactic star cluster Westerlund 1. We detected a coherent signal from the brightest X-ray source in the cluster, CXO J164710.2-455216, during two Chandra observations on 2005 May 22 and June 18. The period of the pulsar is 10.6107(1) s. We place an upper limit to the period derivative of Pdot<2e-10 s/s, which implies that the spin-down luminosity is Edot<3e33 erg/s. The X-ray luminosity of the pulsar is L_X = 3(+10,-2)e33 (D/5 kpc)^2 erg/s, and the spectrum can be described by a kT = 0.61+/-0.02 keV blackbody with a radius of R_bb = 0.27+/-0.03 (D/5 kpc}) km. Deep infrared observations reveal no counterpart with K1 Msun. Taken together, the properties of the pulsar indicate that it is a magnetar. The rarity of slow X-ray pulsars and the position of CXO J164710.2-455216 only 1.6' from the core of Westerlund 1 indicates that it is a member of the cluster with >99.97% confidence. Westerlund 1 contains 07V stars with initial masses M_i=35 Msun and >50 post-main-sequence stars that indicate the cluster is 4+/-1 Myr old. Therefore, the progenitor to this pulsar had an initial mass M_i>40 Msun. This is the most secure result among a handful of observational limits to the masses of the progenitors to neutron stars.Comment: 4 pages, 5 figures. Final version to match ApJL (added one figure since v2

An Anti-Human ICAM-1 Antibody Inhibits Rhinovirus-Induced Exacerbations of Lung Inflammation

Human rhinoviruses (HRV) cause the majority of common colds and acute exacerbations of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Effective therapies are urgently needed, but no licensed treatments or vaccines currently exist. Of the 100 identified serotypes, ∼90% bind domain 1 of human intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (ICAM-1) as their cellular receptor, making this an attractive target for development of therapies; however, ICAM-1 domain 1 is also required for host defence and regulation of cell trafficking, principally via its major ligand LFA-1. Using a mouse anti-human ICAM-1 antibody (14C11) that specifically binds domain 1 of human ICAM-1, we show that 14C11 administered topically or systemically prevented entry of two major groups of rhinoviruses, HRV16 and HRV14, and reduced cellular inflammation, pro-inflammatory cytokine induction and virus load in vivo. 14C11 also reduced cellular inflammation and Th2 cytokine/chemokine production in a model of major group HRV-induced asthma exacerbation. Interestingly, 14C11 did not prevent cell adhesion via human ICAM-1/LFA-1 interactions in vitro, suggesting the epitope targeted by 14C11 was specific for viral entry. Thus a human ICAM-1 domain-1-specific antibody can prevent major group HRV entry and induction of airway inflammation in vivo

Bridging Alone: Religious Conservatism, Marital Homogamy, and Voluntary Association Membership

This study characterizes social insularity of religiously conservative American married couples by examining patterns of voluntary associationmembership. Constructing a dataset of 3938 marital dyads from the second wave of the National Survey of Families and Households, the author investigates whether conservative religious homogamy encourages membership in religious voluntary groups and discourages membership in secular voluntary groups. Results indicate that couples’ shared affiliation with conservative denominations, paired with beliefs in biblical authority and inerrancy, increases the likelihood of religious group membership for husbands and wives and reduces the likelihood of secular group membership for wives, but not for husbands. The social insularity of conservative religious groups appears to be reinforced by homogamy—particularly by wives who share faith with husbands

Shadowing in Inelastic Scattering of Muons on Carbon, Calcium and Lead at Low XBj

Nuclear shadowing is observed in the per-nucleon cross-sections of positive muons on carbon, calcium and lead as compared to deuterium. The data were taken by Fermilab experiment E665 using inelastically scattered muons of mean incident momentum 470 GeV/c. Cross-section ratios are presented in the kinematic region 0.0001 < XBj <0.56 and 0.1 < Q**2 < 80 GeVc. The data are consistent with no significant nu or Q**2 dependence at fixed XBj. As XBj decreases, the size of the shadowing effect, as well as its A dependence, are found to approach the corresponding measurements in photoproduction.Comment: 22 pages, incl. 6 figures, to be published in Z. Phys.

Lambda and Antilambda polarization from deep inelastic muon scattering

We report results of the first measurements of Lambda and Antilambda polarization produced in deep inelastic polarized muon scattering on the nucleon. The results are consistent with an expected trend towards positive polarization with increasing x_F. The polarizations of Lambda and Antilambda appear to have opposite signs. A large negative polarization for Lambda at low positive x_F is observed and is not explained by existing models.A possible interpretation is presented.Comment: 9 pages, 2 figure