Drivers of the lifecycle - the example of the German insurance industry

Lifecycles have been accepted widely as a matter of fact in business. Existing literature focuses on their theoretical implications for product managers and cor¬po¬rate strategists. There are major shortcomings of the research in that field concerning the populations covered (if at all, mostly hardware) and the theo¬retic¬cal as well as empirical analysis of the drivers of the lifecycles in the various industries. Based on the research of Menhart et al. (2003), we chose a population of service organizations to analyze the drivers of the lifecycle. Biological lifecycles describe the development processes of an individual from birth to death. Economic life cycle concepts assume, that in analogy to bio¬lo¬gical organisms, economic systems also experience typical phases of develop¬ment in their evolution. In the economic literature, life cycle concepts were used to explain the development patterns of single products, organizations, techno¬logies and whole industries. In the standard model of the life cycle concept, specific characteristics of the unit of analysis such as sales volume, turnover or number of competitors first increase to a maximum, then decrease sig¬nificantly and finally reach a level of stability, or they are discontinued com¬pletely. We have developed a concept for an insurance specific industry life cycle with a non-typical matu¬ration and degeneration phase, and discuss to what extent the concept of Mas¬low's pyramid of needs can have explanatory power regarding the pattern of density dynamics.Lebenszyklen sind in der wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Forschung inzwischen ein etabliertes Konzept, wobei der Großteil der vorhandenen Literatur auf Normstrategien in Produktmanagement oder auf Unternehmensebene abstellt. Industriepopulation wurden bislang dagegen ebenso wenig untersucht (und wenn, dann ausschließlich im Sachgüterbereich) wie die theoretische oder praktische Triebkräfte für Veränderungen von Industriepopulationen. Basierend auf den Forschungsergebnissen von Menhart et al. (2003) untersuchen wir die Treiber des Lebenszyklus für eine Population von Dienstleistungsunternehmen. Biologische Lebenszyklen beschreiben das Leben eines Individuums von der Geburt bis zum Tode. Ökonomische Lebenszyklen liegt die Annahme zugrunde, dass – analog zu den biologischen Organismen – auch ökonomische Systeme typische Evolutionsphasen in ihrer Entwicklung durchlaufen. In der Literatur werden Lebenszykluskonzepte zur Erklärung der Entwicklungsverläufe einzelner Produkte, von Organisationen, Technologien und ganzen Industrien genutzt. Im Standardmodell des Lebenszyklus wachsen spezifische Charakteristika des Untersuchungsgegenstands wie z.B. Absatz, Umsatz oder Anzahl der Mitbewerber zunächst auf ein Maximum an, um dann signifikant zurück zu gehen und sich schließlich auf ein stabiles Maß einzupendeln. In extremen Fällen endet der Lebenszyklus auch abrupt. Wir haben ein spezifisches Konzept für Industrielebenszyklen in der Versicherungsbranche entwickelt, das einen untypischen Verlauf in der Reife- und Degenerationsphase zeigt. Weiter diskutieren wir, inwieweit die Maslowsche Bedürfnispyramide ein möglicher Erklärungsansatz für Veränderungen in der Populationsdichte ist

Product Innovation and Population Dynamics in the German Insurance Market

Empirical research in organizational ecology has mainly focused on analyzing founding and mortality rates using life history data of the organizations. We try to extend this approach in our study in a number of ways. In contrast to most empirical studies in organizational ecology, we chose a population of service organizations, in particular the German insurance companies, the development dynamics of which are rather obvious in the innovative activities of existing organizations than in founding activities. We further discuss the points of contact between the organizational ecology approach and the theory of industry life cycles and extend the analysis to the relationship between innovative activities and population dynamics. The study examines the effects of population density, former events, and organizational size and age structure in the population of property & casualty insurance companies on the number of product innovations generated. We will further develop a concept for an insurance specific industry life cycle with a non-typical maturation and degeneration phase.service industries; population ecology; industry life cycles

US-Schuldenkrise: Droht den USA ein Vertrauensverlust?

Angesichts der ungelösten Schuldenkrise in Europa geht Harm Bandholz, UniCredit Bank, New York, davon aus, dass die Investoren weiterhin auf Altbewährtes setzen und ihr Vertrauen in US-Staatsanleihen behalten müssen. Für Michael Menhart, Munich RE, bleiben Zweifel an der langfristigen Tragfähigkeit des amerikanischen Wachstumsmodells. Allerdings greife eine Fokussierung der Diskussion auf die USA in jedem Fall zu kurz. Für Josef Braml, Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik (DGAP), Berlin, werden die gesellschaftlichen und politischen Konflikte die wirtschaftlichen Probleme der USA verschärfen, während Bernd Weidensteiner, Commerzbank, Frankfurt am Main, trotz steigender Belastungen in den USA keine Schuldenkrise sieht. Nach Ansicht von Eckhard Janeba, Universität Mannheim, steckt hinter den Vertrauensproblemen in den USA eine ökonomische Schieflage, die das Vertrauen in die USA weiter schwinden lassen könnte.Öffentliche Schulden, Krise, Vertrauen, Wachstumstheorie, Vereinigte Staaten

FDG PET/CT to detect bone marrow involvement in the initial staging of patients with aggressive non-Hodgkin lymphoma: results from the prospective, multicenter PETAL and OPTIMAL>60 trials

Purpose Fluorine-18 fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography combined with computed tomography (FDG PET/CT) is the standard for staging aggressive non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL). Limited data from prospective studies is available to determine whether initial staging by FDG PET/CT provides treatment-relevant information of bone marrow (BM) involvement (BMI) and thus could spare BM biopsy (BMB). Methods Patients from PETAL (NCT00554164) and OPTIMAL>60 (NCT01478542) with aggressive B-cell NHL initially staged by FDG PET/CT and BMB were included in this pooled analysis. The reference standard to confirm BMI included a positive BMB and/or FDG PET/CT confirmed by targeted biopsy, complementary imaging (CT or magnetic resonance imaging), or concurrent disappearance of focal FDG-avid BM lesions with other lymphoma manifestations during immunochemotherapy. Results Among 930 patients, BMI was detected by BMB in 85 (prevalence 9%) and by FDG PET/CT in 185 (20%) cases, for a total of 221 cases (24%). All 185 PET-positive cases were true positive, and 709 of 745 PET-negative cases were true negative. For BMB and FDG PET/CT, sensitivity was 38% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 32–45%) and 84% (CI: 78–88%), specificity 100% (CI: 99–100%) and 100% (CI: 99–100%), positive predictive value 100% (CI: 96–100%) and 100% (CI: 98–100%), and negative predictive value 84% (CI: 81–86%) and 95% (CI: 93–97%), respectively. In all of the 36 PET-negative cases with confirmed BMI patients had other adverse factors according to IPI that precluded a change of standard treatment. Thus, the BMB would not have influenced the patient management. Conclusion In patients with aggressive B-cell NHL, routine BMB provides no critical staging information compared to FDG PET/CT and could therefore be omitted. Trial registration NCT00554164 and NCT0147854

Irinotecan and temozolomide in combination with dasatinib and rapamycin versus irinotecan and temozolomide for patients with relapsed or refractory neuroblastoma (RIST-rNB-2011): a multicentre, open-label, randomised, controlled, phase 2 trial

Background Neuroblastoma is the most common extracranial solid tumour in children. Relapsed or refractory neuroblastoma is associated with a poor outcome. We assessed the combination of irinotecan–temozolomide and dasatinib–rapamycin (RIST) in patients with relapsed or refractory neuroblastoma. Methods The multicentre, open-label, randomised, controlled, phase 2, RIST-rNB-2011 trial recruited from 40 paediatric oncology centres in Germany and Austria. Patients aged 1–25 years with high-risk relapsed (defined as recurrence of all stage IV and MYCN amplification stages, after response to treatment) or refractory (progressive disease during primary treatment) neuroblastoma, with Lansky and Karnofsky performance status at least 50%, were assigned (1:1) to RIST (RIST group) or irinotecan–temozolomide (control group) by block randomisation, stratified by MYCN status. We compared RIST (oral rapamycin [loading 3 mg/m2 on day 1, maintenance 1 mg/m2 on days 2–4] and oral dasatinib [2 mg/kg per day] for 4 days with 3 days off, followed by intravenous irinotecan [50 mg/m2 per day] and oral temozolomide [150 mg/m2 per day] for 5 days with 2 days off; one course each of rapamycin–dasatinib and irinotecan–temozolomide for four cycles over 8 weeks, then two courses of rapamycin–dasatinib followed by one course of irinotecan–temozolomide for 12 weeks) with irinotecan–temozolomide alone (with identical dosing as experimental group). The primary endpoint of progression-free survival was analysed in all eligible patients who received at least one course of therapy. The safety population consisted of all patients who received at least one course of therapy and had at least one post-baseline safety assessment. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01467986, and is closed to accrual. Findings Between Aug 26, 2013, and Sept 21, 2020, 129 patients were randomly assigned to the RIST group (n=63) or control group (n=66). Median age was 5·4 years (IQR 3·7–8·1). 124 patients (78 [63%] male and 46 [37%] female) were included in the efficacy analysis. At a median follow-up of 72 months (IQR 31–88), the median progression-free survival was 11 months (95% CI 7–17) in the RIST group and 5 months (2–8) in the control group (hazard ratio 0·62, one-sided 90% CI 0·81; p=0·019). Median progression-free survival in patients with amplified MYCN (n=48) was 6 months (95% CI 4–24) in the RIST group versus 2 months (2–5) in the control group (HR 0·45 [95% CI 0·24-0·84], p=0·012); median progression-free survival in patients without amplified MYCN (n=76) was 14 months (95% CI 9–7) in the RIST group versus 8 months (4–15) in the control group (HR 0·84 [95% CI 0·51–1·38], p=0·49). The most common grade 3 or worse adverse events were neutropenia (54 [81%] of 67 patients given RIST vs 49 [82%] of 60 patients given control), thrombocytopenia (45 [67%] vs 41 [68%]), and anaemia (39 [58%] vs 38 [63%]). Nine serious treatment-related adverse events were reported (five patients given control and four patients given RIST). There were no treatment-related deaths in the control group and one in the RIST group (multiorgan failure). Interpretation RIST-rNB-2011 demonstrated that targeting of MYCN-amplified relapsed or refractory neuroblastoma with a pathway-directed metronomic combination of a multkinase inhibitor and an mTOR inhibitor can improve progression-free survival and overall survival. This exclusive efficacy in MYCN-amplified, relapsed neuroblastoma warrants further investigation in the first-line setting

Innovationsdynamik und Lebenszyklen in der Versicherungsindustrie

Innovationsdynamik und Lebenszyklen in der Versicherungsindustrie : eine empirische Analyse auf Basis evolutorischer Modelle. - Aachen : Shaker, 2003. - 278 S. - (Berichte aus der Volkswirtschaft). - Zugl.: Augsburg, Univ., Diss

Product innovation and population dynamics in the German insurance market

Empirical research in organizational ecology has mainly focused on analyzing founding and mortality rates using life history data of the organizations. We try to extend this approach in our study in a number of ways. In contrast to most empirical studies in organizational ecology, we chose a population of service organizations, in particular the German insurance companies, the development dynamics of which are rather obvious in the innovative activities of existing organizations than in founding activities. We further discuss the points of contact between the organizational ecology approach and the theory of industry life cycles and extend the analysis to the relationship between innovative activities and population dynamics. The study examines the effects of population density, former events, and organizational size and age structure in the population of property & casualty insurance companies on the number of product innovations generated. We will further develop a concept for an insurance specific industry life cycle with a non-typical maturation and degeneration phase

Product innovation and population dynamics in the German insurance market

Empirical research in organizational ecology has mainly focused on analyzing founding and mortality rates using life history data of the organizations. We try to extend this approach in our study in a number of ways. In contrast to most empirical studies in organizational ecology, we chose a population of service organizations, in particular the German insurance companies, the development dynamics of which are rather obvious in the innovative activities of existing organizations than in founding activities. We further discuss the points of contact between the organizational ecology approach and the theory of industry life cycles and extend the analysis to the relationship between innovative activities and population dynamics. The study examines the effects of population density, former events, and organizational size and age structure in the population of property & casualty insurance companies on the number of product innovations generated. We will further develop a concept for an insurance specific industry life cycle with a non-typical maturation and degeneration phase

Diagnostic value of FDG PET/CT imaging in patients with surgically managed infective endocarditis – results of a retrospective analysis at a tertiary center

Background We assessed the diagnostic value of FDG PET/CT in a real-world cohort of patients with surgically managed infective endocarditis (IE). Methods We performed a retrospective analysis of all patients hospitalized in a tertiary IE referral medical center from January 2014 to October 2018 fulfilling the following criteria: ICD-10 code for IE and OPS code for both, heart surgery and FDG PET/CT. Results Final analysis included 29 patients, whereof 28 patients had surgically proven IE. FDG PET/CT scan was true-positive in 15 patients (sensitivity (SEN) 56%) and false-negative in 12 patients. Combination of Duke criteria (DC) with FDG PET/CT scan resulted in gain of SEN for all patients with confirmed IE (SEN of DC 79% vs SEN of combination DC and FDG PET/CT 89%), driven by a relevant gain in PVE patients only (SEN of DC 78% vs SEN of combination DC and FDG PET/CT 94%). Interestingly, higher prosthesis age was observed in patients with false-negative scans. Conclusions We found a SEN of 56% for FDG PET/CT in a real-world cohort of patients with surgically proven IE which was associated with a 16% gain of IE diagnosis in patients with PVE when combined with DC