Why Hasn’t Economic Growth Killed Religion?

Economic growth has not led to a decline in religion despite past predictions that it would. I use a formal model of religious competition to show how economic growth produces counteracting effects on religious participation in an open religious market, while economic growth will have little effect in a religious market that is already secularized due to religious regulations. Theories predicting the decline of religion due to rising opportunity costs of religious demand and supply ignore countervailing influences.Religion; Hotelling, entry deterrence

Experienced Utility versus Decision Utility: Putting the 'S' in Satisfaction

Recent research distinguishes an individual's decision utility, inferred from her observed choices, from her experienced utility, which more closely matches the notion of happiness. Using various estimation techniques with a unique experimental data set, we test whether post-choice satisfaction (experienced utility), like decision utility, is S-shaped with loss aversion around a given reference point. We also present a model which estimates the satisfaction function and reference point simultaneously. When pooling the data across individuals, we find an S-shaped satisfaction function in which the reference point depends on past payments, social comparisons, and subjective expectations. There is mixed evidence of loss aversion. At the individual level, there is substantial variation in satisfaction function shapes, although the S-shape is common. Though the two notions of utility are distinct, our findings imply that the two are related at a fundamental level.Happiness; Utility; Experiment; Value function; Prospect theory

Explaining Conflict in Low-Income Countries: Incomplete Contracting in the Shadow of the Future

We examine two factors that help explain the prevalence of conflict in low-income countries: that adversaries cannot enforce long-term contracts in arms, and that open conflict alters the future strategic positions of the adversaries differently than does peace. Using an infinite horizon model, we show the conditions under which adversaries will not be able to sustain short-term contracts even though doing so is Pareto superior to open conflict. Conflict arises because adversaries attempt to gain future strategic supremacy that only victory in conflict brings. Lower incomes or wages, as well as higher discount factors and the less destructive conflict is, the higher is the likelihood of war.

Explaining Conflict in Low-Income Countries: Incomplete Contracting in the Shadow of the Future

We examine two factors that help explain the prevalence of conflict in low-income countries: that adversaries cannot enforce long-term contracts in arms, and that open conflict alters the future strategic positions of the adversaries differently than does peace. Using an infinite horizon model, we show the conditions under which adversaries will not be able to sustain short-term contracts even though doing so is Pareto superior to open conflict. Conflict arises because adversaries attempt to gain future strategic supremacy that only victory in conflict brings. Lower incomes or wages, as well as higher discount factors and the less destructive conflict is, the higher is the likelihood of war.

Conflict, Settlement, and the Shadow of the Future

In many instances of potential violent or non-violent conflict the future strategic positions of adversaries are very different when there is open conflict than when there is settlement. In such environments we show that, as the future becomes more important, open conflict becomes more likely than settlement. We demonstrate the theoretical robustness of this finding, discuss its applicability in war, litigation, and other settings, and test it in a laboratory experiment. We find that subjects are more likely to engage in risky conflict as the future becomes more important.conflict, litigation, property rights, folk theorem

Conflict, Settlement, and the Shadow of the Future

In many instances of potential violent or non-violent conflict, the future strategic positions of adversaries are very different when there is open conflict than when there is settlement. Then, we show that as the future becomes more important, open conflict becomes more likely than settlement. We discuss the applicability of this finding in war, litigation, and other settings, and test it it in a laboratory experiment. We find that subjects are more likely to engage in risky conflict as the future becomes more important.Conflict; Litigation; Property rights; Folk theorem

Constraining cometary ejection models from meteor storm observations

Modelling and observations of the Leonids have shown that maxima in the meteor storm activity can be identified as due to particles released from the comet during certain perihelion passages. If the particles originating from a certain perihelion passage can be identified, the next obvious question to ask is what information can be gained about the ejection process of particles from a cometary nucleus. We have developed a method to calculate the set of all possible dust trajectories that reach the Earth at some given time. The method involves numerical integration of a few dust particles only and is applied to the Leonid activity in the year 2000. We show that particles of different sizes entering the Earth's atmosphere at the same time were released from the comet at different heliocentric distances. Therefore one has to make assumptions about the activity of the comet with heliocentric distance in order to derive the cometary mass distribution from an observed meteor mass distribution. However, we outline how lower limits on the ejection velocity of the observed particles can be derived

Peace and War with Endogenous State Capacity

We explore how peace or war can occur in the presence of commitment problems. These problems can be reduced by institutions of good governance or, alternatively, state capacity which (i) can be considered a collective good and (ii) can be improved through investments. We show how the likelihood of a peace agreement depends on the level of state capacity and on investments in state capacity made by adversaries. In accordance with existing evidence but contrary to various theories of conflict, we find that income levels unambiguously increase the chance of peace. Among other issues, we discuss the critical role of external actors in encouraging or discouraging commitment and in developing good governance institutions.Institutions; Conflict; Governance

Reducing Alcohol-Related Traffic Accidents through Server Training

Alcohol misuse is a serious problem plaguing the United States as well as Missouri. The largest problems stemming from alcohol misuse are impaired driving, underage drinking, and binge drinking. The Harvard School of Public Health lists “property damage, physical injuries, unwanted sexual advances, and encounters with police” as problems stemming from heavy episodic (binge) drinking. Underage drinking is linked to “youth crimes, suicides, rapes, assaults, alcohol poisoning and unintentional injuries” that costs society “$53 billion annually.” Alcohol is involved in 40% of all fatal traffic crashes. Mandatory server training is a program that can address all of these problems but its primary benefit is its potential to reduce motor vehicle accidents.Includes bibliographical reference

Paps\u27 A.M. v. City of Erie: The Wrong Route to the Right Direction

This note will examine the Pennsylvania Supreme Court’s decision in Pap’s A.M. v. City of Erie, by looking at the policy behind the decision, while also examining the decision in light of the previous United States Supreme Court decision in Barnes v. Glen Theatre. The note will examine why the decision in Pap’s A.M. was an unnecessary misinterpretation of the United States Constitution. It will examine how and why the Pennsylvania Supreme Court could have settled the issue of nude dancing in Pennsylvania and avoided review by the United States Supreme Court by deciding the case under the Pennsylvania Constitution instead of the First Amendment to the United States Constitution. Finally, this note will examine the ramifications of this choice of law when the United States Supreme Court hears this case during the 1999-2000 term