Coordination Failure and Financial Contagion

This paper explores a unique equilibrium model of ''informational'' financial contagion. Extending the global game model of Morris and Shin (1999), I show that the failure of a single firm can trigger a chain of failures merely by affecting the behavior of investors. In contrast to the existing multiple equilibria models of financial and banking panics, there is no indeterminacy in the present model. Thus, it provides a clear framework to assess the consequences of contagion and yields some important and hitherto unnoticed insights. Most importantly, if contagion is compared to an appropriate benchmark, its impact can be both positive or negative, which contrasts sharply with the traditional view of contagion. Moreover, contagion increases the correlation between firms, but the effect on the unconditional probability of failure is exactly zerofinancial contagion; systemic risk; financial crises; global games; unique equilibrium

Information and Barometric Prices: An Explanation for Price Stickiness

Price stickiness plays a decisive role in many macroeconomic models, yet why prices are sticky remains a puzzle. We develop a microeconomic model in which two competing firms are free to set prices, but face uncertainty about the state of demand. With some probability, there is a positive demand shock, which is observed but by one firm. In equilibrium, only the informed firm adjusts its price after the shock, while the uninformed firm raises its price only with a delay, after observing the price of its competitor. Hence, prices are sticky in the sense that one firm's price does not adjust immediately. Further, if getting information is costly, the model implies that the larger firm tends to be better informed and to adjust its price first.Price Setting; Sticky Prices; Asymmetric Information; Barometic Price Leadership

The Exposure of Swiss Banks to Macroeconomic Shocks - an Empirical Investigation

Assessing financial stability is an issue of rapidly growing importance to central banks and banking authorities. This paper explores an extensive panel data set of Swiss banks to identify macroeconomic influencing factors on bank profitability and to quantify their impact on bank capitalization. We find evidence of a significant effect of various macroeconomic variables as e.g. real growth or interest rate shocks on bank earnings. However, our results suggest that the Swiss banking system is quite robust against macroeconomic shocks. Only a joint occurrence of a recession, rising interest rates and falling stock prices would lead to substantial losses in the Swiss banking industry.banking, macroeconomic shocks, stress tests, credit risk, interestrate risk, Switzerland

Factors Associated With Radiographic Vertical Bone Loss Around Implants Placed in a Clinical Study

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142291/1/aape0137.pd

Synchronization of Directory Services with the Event Propagation Framework

This case study introduces the most relevant directory service standard LDAP and the approach how to synchronize these directory services using the Event Propagation Framework (EPF) of iC Consult to establish a cooperate directory service as it is done at Daimler Chrysler

Towards Integrated Variant Management in Global Software Engineering: An Experience Report

In the automotive domain, customer demands and market constraints are progressively realized by electric/ electronic components and corresponding software. Variant traceability in SPL is crucial in the context of different tasks, like change impact analysis, especially in complex global software projects. In addition, traceability concepts must be extended by partly automated variant configuration mechanisms to handle restrictions and dependencies between variants. Such variant configuration mechanism helps to reduce complexity when configuring a valid variant and to establish an explicit documentation of dependencies between components. However, integrated variant management has not been sufficiently addressed so far. Especially, the increasing number of software variants requires an examination of traceable and configurable software variants over the software lifecycle. This paper emphasizes variant traceability achievements in a large global software engineering project, elaborates existing challenges, and evaluates an industrial usage of an integrated variant management based on experiences

An Approach to Detect the Origin and Distribution of Software Defects in an Evolving Cyber-Physical System

Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) are usually developed by an incremental approach. A changing environment like demanding user requirements or legislation amendments lead often to multiple development paths in an evolving CPS. Hence, software variability plays an increasingly important role adapting the characteristics of such CPS to different contexts. This paper focuses on software variability realized through a Software Product Line (SPL) more specifically. Thereby, variability and evolution are usually managed in different tools. However with respect to software defects, a holistic handling of variability and evolution is necessary to ensure a reliable software defect removal. Particularly, detecting software defects in different evolution stages and derived variants is ordinary, but complex and error-prone. To close the gap between variability and evolution, this paper presents a systematic approach to combine both disciplines. In particular, we apply existing variant management techniques in combination with software configuration management methods to determine a software defect's origin and distribution in an evolving SPL. We apply our approach to a CPS from the automotive domain to show its industrial relevance and usefulness

Dental Caries Status and Need for Dental Treatment of Pennsylvania Public School Children in Grades 1,3, 9, and 11

Objectives : This cross-sectional study was designed to determine the caries status and provide a general evaluation of the level of dental treatment need of Pennsylvania public school children in grades 1, 3, 9, and 11 on a statewide and regional basis. Methods : Between September 1998 and May 2000, caries status and treatment need were assessed using a school-based dental examination, performed on a representative sample ( n =6,040) of public school children in grades 1, 3, 9, and 11 (age range=6 to 21 years). Children's caries status in the primary and permanent dentition was assessed. Need for treatment was scored on a three-level categorical scale—no treatment need identified, routine treatment need, and urgent treatment need—and was based on the presence and severity of caries and other oral conditions. Population estimates of the prevalence of untreated dental caries, DMFT and dft scores, and treatment need were calculated by grade and geographically, using the six Pennsylvania health districts and the cities of Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. The inequality of caries distribution in the population was assessed for both permanent and primary caries using Lorenz curves and Gini coefficients. Results : Dental caries has remained highly prevalent among Pennsylvania's public school children. Caries levels varied considerably by health districts and city. Urgent treatment needs were significant and also varied by health district and city. Conclusions : Dental caries remains the most prevalent disease affecting Pennsylvania's schoolchildren. Caries status varies significantly by region of the state, suggesting that environmental, social, and demographic contextual factors may be important determinants of disease prevalence.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/66416/1/j.1752-7325.2004.tb02743.x.pd

Socioeconomic factors in adolescents’ oral health: are they mediated by oral hygiene behaviors or preventive interventions?

Polk DE, Weyant RJ, Manz MC. Socioeconomic factors in adolescents’ oral health: are they mediated by oral hygiene behaviors or preventive interventions? Community Dent Oral Epidemiol 2010; 38: 1–9. © 2009 John Wiley & Sons A/STo determine whether there is a socioeconomic status (SES) disparity in caries experience (i.e., DMFT) in an adolescent sample from Pennsylvania and to determine whether differences in oral hygiene behaviors and preventive interventions account for this disparity.A cross-sectional clinical assessment was conducted on a representative sample of 9th grade and 11th grade students across Pennsylvania. These students also completed a brief questionnaire regarding their oral hygiene behaviors. From this group of students, a random subsample of 530 parents completed a questionnaire assessing SES, fluoride exposure, and recency of receipt of dental services. DMFT was examined at two thresholds of severity: simple prevalence (DMFT > 0) and severe caries (DMFT > 3).Using structural equation modeling, we found that lower SES was associated with higher prevalence of DMFT and higher prevalence of severe caries. Although lower SES was associated with lower rates of brushing, less use of sealants, and less recent receipt of dental services, these oral health behaviors and preventive interventions did not account for the disparities in DMFT defined by SES.There is an SES gradient in caries experience in adolescents in Pennsylvania. Disparities in caries experience, however, cannot be accounted for by SES-associated differences in brushing, flossing, sealant use, fluoride exposure, or recency of use of dental services. To facilitate the design of preventive interventions, future research should determine the pathways through which SES-associated disparities occur.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78657/1/j.1600-0528.2009.00499.x.pd

Is there an Appalachian disparity in dental caries in Pennsylvania schoolchildren?

ObjectivesTo determine whether there is an Appalachian disparity in caries prevalence or extent in children living in Pennsylvania.MethodsWe conducted a cross‐sectional clinical assessment of caries in a sample representing 1st, 3rd, 9th, and 11th grade students across Pennsylvania. We used logistic regression and zero‐inflated negative binomial regression controlling for age to examine the association of residence in an Appalachian county with caries prevalence and extent in the primary and permanent dentitions.ResultsCompared with children living outside Appalachia, more children living in Appalachia had a dft >0 (OR = 1.37, 95% CI = 1.07–1.76) and more had a DMFT >0 (OR = 1.32, 95% CI = 1.06–1.64). In addition, compared with children living outside Appalachia, children living in Appalachia had a greater primary but not permanent caries extent (IRR = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.01–1.19).ConclusionsWe found Appalachian disparities in caries prevalence in both the primary and permanent dentitions and an Appalachian disparity in caries extent in the primary dentition. None of the disparities was moderated by age. This suggests that the search for the mechanism or mechanisms for the Appalachian disparities should focus on differential exposures to risk factors occurring prior to and at the start of elementary school.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/110608/1/cdoe12135.pd