CMEs and SEPs During November‐December 2020: A Challenge for Real‐Time Space Weather Forecasting

Predictions of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs) are a central issue in space weather forecasting. In recent years, interest in space weather predictions has expanded to include impacts at other planets beyond Earth as well as spacecraft scattered throughout the heliosphere. In this sense, the scope of space weather science now encompasses the whole heliospheric system, and multipoint measurements of solar transients can provide useful insights and validations for prediction models. In this work, we aim to analyze the whole inner heliospheric context between two eruptive flares that took place in late 2020, that is, the M4.4 flare of 29 November and the C7.4 flare of 7 December. This period is especially interesting because the STEREO-A spacecraft was located ∼60° east of the Sun–Earth line, giving us the opportunity to test the capabilities of “predictions at 360°” using remote-sensing observations from the Lagrange L1 and L5 points as input. We simulate the CMEs that were ejected during our period of interest and the SEPs accelerated by their shocks using the WSA-Enlil-SEPMOD modeling chain and four sets of input parameters, forming a “mini-ensemble.” We validate our results using in situ observations at six locations, including Earth and Mars. We find that, despite some limitations arising from the models' architecture and assumptions, CMEs and shock-accelerated SEPs can be reasonably studied and forecast in real time at least out to several tens of degrees away from the eruption site using the prediction tools employed here. </p

Observation and Modeling of the Solar Wind Turbulence Evolution in the Sub-Mercury Inner Heliosphere

This letter exploits the radial alignment between the Parker Solar Probe and BepiColombo in late 2022 February, when both spacecraft were within Mercury’s orbit. This allows the study of the turbulent evolution, namely, the change in spectral and intermittency properties, of the same plasma parcel during its expansion from 0.11 to 0.33 au, a still unexplored region. The observational analysis of the solar wind turbulent features at the two different evolution stages is complemented by a theoretical description based on the turbulence transport model equations for nearly incompressible magnetohydrodynamics. The results provide strong evidence that the solar wind turbulence already undergoes significant evolution at distances less than 0.3 au from the Sun, which can be satisfactorily explained as due to evolving slab fluctuations. This work represents a step forward in understanding the processes that control the transition from weak to strong turbulence in the solar wind and in properly modeling the heliosphere.</p

Linking Small-scale Solar Wind Properties with Large-scale Coronal Source Regions through Joint Parker Solar Probe-Metis/Solar Orbiter Observations

The solar wind measured in situ by Parker Solar Probe in the very inner heliosphere is studied in combination with the remote-sensing observation of the coronal source region provided by the METIS coronagraph aboard Solar Orbiter. The coronal outflows observed near the ecliptic by Metis on 2021 January 17 at 16:30 UT, between 3.5 and 6.3 R ⊙ above the eastern solar limb, can be associated with the streams sampled by PSP at 0.11 and 0.26 au from the Sun, in two time intervals almost 5 days apart. The two plasma flows come from two distinct source regions, characterized by different magnetic field polarity and intensity at the coronal base. It follows that both the global and local properties of the two streams are different. Specifically, the solar wind emanating from the stronger magnetic field region has a lower bulk flux density, as expected, and is in a state of well-developed Alfvénic turbulence, with low intermittency. This is interpreted in terms of slab turbulence in the context of nearly incompressible magnetohydrodynamics. Conversely, the highly intermittent and poorly developed turbulent behavior of the solar wind from the weaker magnetic field region is presumably due to large magnetic deflections most likely attributed to the presence of switchbacks of interchange reconnection origin.</p