Volatility and Growth: An Explanation for the Disagreement

This paper reconsiders the e_ects of volatile growth rates on growth itself. I show that the underlying endogeneity of government size can hide the net growth e_ects from volatility. There exists a positive direct and a negative indirect channel, with the latter operating through the size of the public sector. Risk-averse citizens respond to volatility either with precautionary savings (direct e_ect) or by demanding a stronger public safety net, which in turn lowers growth (indirect e_ect). However, the indirect channel is only available if the political regime allows citizens to determine their desired level of public services. I test this theory on a balanced panel of 95 countries from 1960 { 2010. The paper reveals the latent endogeneity of government size in a single growth equation framework and o_ers a simultaneous estimation method as an alternative. Results support the existence of both effects. The direct channel is stronger in autocratic societies, but as a country turns to democracy the indirect channel dominates. Volatility has a positive net e_ect on growth in autocratic nations, but a negative net effect in democratic societies. This finding explains why previous growth analyses of volatility at times reached contradicting conclusions

Three Essays in Economics

My dissertation consist of three essays analyzing the results of decisions made by workers, both on the microeconomic as well as the macroeconomic level.My first essay, which is a coproduction with Wayne Grove and Andrew Hussey, investigates the determinants of the gender wage gap. Specifically, the paper points out that noncognitive skills, preferences for life and career, but also preferences for work ethics and work environment, are able to account for as much as one third of the explained portion of the gender wage gap.My second essay, which is co-authored with Dr. Pinaki Bose, provides a possible explanation why some tax amnesties are successful in terms of revenuecollection and participation rates (for example Ireland, Colombia, India twice, and France), whereas others are not. In particular, I am modeling the taxpayer\u27s decision whether to acceptan amnesty offer from the tax authority and derive conditions under which she will be inclined to do so. The resultsshow that if economic conditions change substantially, for example by a tradeliberalization of the domestic country, a perfectly rational agent will find itoptimal to accept a tax amnesty.In my third essay, I am developing a theoretical model identifying the relationship between the volatility of private sector wages and growth. The model suggests two distinct channels in which wage volatility affects growth: a positive direct way (working through precautionary savings) and a negative indirect way (working through the mediating role of government size). Applying a 3SLS approach to a panel of 19 countries, my empirical analysis provides strong evidence for the existence of both effects. Thus, this paper establishes wage volatility as a growth determinant and explains why previous growth analyses on other sorts of volatility could not reach a consensus, as the indirect effect was not recognized

Game, set, and match: Do women and men perform differently in competitive situations?

This paper analyzes potential gender differences in competitive environments using a sample of over 100,000 professional tennis matches. Focusing on two phenomena of the labor and sports economics literature, we find robust evidence for (i) the hot-hand effect (an additional win in the most recent ten matches raises the likelihood of winning by 3.1 to 3.3 percent) and (ii) the clutch-player effect, as top players are excelling in Grand Slam tournaments, the most important events. Overall, we find virtually no gender differences for the hot-hand effect and only minor distinctions for the clutch-player effect

InP-quantum dots in Al0.20Ga0.80InP with different barrier configurations

Systematic ensemble photoluminescence studies have been performed on type-I InP-quantum dots in Al0.20Ga0.80InP barriers, emitting at approximately 1.85 eV at 5 K. The influence of different barrier configurations as well as the incorporation of additional tunnel barriers on the optical properties has been investigated. The confinement energy between the dot barrier and the surrounding barrier layers, which is the sum of the band discontinuities for the valence and the conduction bands, was chosen to be approximately 190 meV by using Al0.50Ga0.50InP. In combination with 2 nm thick AlInP tunnel barriers, the internal quantum efficiency of these barrier configurations can be increased by up to a factor of 20 at elevated temperatures with respect to quantum dots without such layers.Comment: physica status solidi (c) (Proceedings of QD 2008

The roots of export diversification

Countries with diversi ed export baskets take advantage of various bene ts, which are said to foster and stabilize economic growth directly and through indirect channels (e.g. reduced income volatility, positive externalities, spillover e ects). This is especially important in the context of developing economies. However, identifying the true determinants of export diversifi cation is di cult as there exists no comprehensive theoretical or empirical framework to capture all potential factors in their entirety. This paper uses Bayesian Model Averaging to uncover the true long-term roots of export diversi cation among 43 potential determinants,and thus 2 potential models. Our results suggest that only four factors are important in predicting export diversi cation levels over the long run: natural resource rents as a percentage of GDP (100 % posterior inclusion probability), primary school enrollment rates (96 %), population size (25 %), and foreign direct investment levels (17 %). Many prominent candidates turn out to be insigni cant in determining diversi cation levels. Neither policy-related variables (e.g. tari s, freedom from trade regulations or democracy) nor macroeconomic factors (such as trade openness, terms of trade or domestic investment levels) nor geographical remoteness (whether the country is an island or landlocked) play a role. Various robustness checks con rm our results

Monetary Policy Shifts and the Forward Discount Puzzle

This paper argues that considerable switches in monetary policy are able to explain a major part of the forward discount puzzle. We build a theoretical model suggesting that violations of the uncovered interest rate parity are owed to shifts in monetary policy from a destabilizing (when the Taylor principle is violated) to a stabilizing regime (when a central bank follows a Taylor-type rule). Following the switch is an \adjustment period" during which forecasters gradually update their expectations, eventually restoring the parity. It is in this adjustment period, when the forward discount puzzle arises. In the second part of the paper we test the model on the Canadian dollar, German mark, and British pound, all against the US dollar. Results indicate that the forward discount puzzle loses signi cance after allowing for an adjustment period of about 1 { 2 years. Our results are robust to various di erent speci cations, such as the use of di erent maturities or base currencies. Further, it seems unlikely that our results coincide with contemporaneous events

Isolating causality between gender and corruption: An IV approach

We address the persistent reverse causality problem in estimating the causal effect of female labor force participation (FLFP) on corruption. Employing plow usage as an instrumental variable, an increase in FLFP by one standard deviation is suggested to improve the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI, ranging from zero to ten) by 0.52 points. This effect is stronger than a one standard deviation change of education levels, government size, or ethnic fractionalization

Good girl, bad boy: Corrupt behavior in professional tennis

This paper identifies matches on the male and female professional tennis tours in which one player faces a high payoff from being “on the bubble” of direct entry into one of the lucrative Grand Slam tournaments, while their opposition does not. Analyzing over 378,000 matches provides strong evidence for corrupt behavior on the men’s tour, as bubble players are substantially more likely to beat better ranked opponents when a win is desperately needed. However, we find no such evidence on the women’s tour. These results prevail throughout a series of extensions and robustness checks, highlighting gender differences regarding corrupt and unethical behavior, but also concerning collusion. We especially find evidence for collusion once monetary incentives are further increased. Finally, the market for sports betting does not seem to be aware of this phenomenon, suggesting a market imperfection and further confirming our suspicion of irregular activities in men’s tennis

Does urbanization mean bigger governments?

This paper proposes urbanization as a determinant of government size. As people move to cities, their demand for a more de ned set of regulations, but also for basic health, education, and income standards rises. Our theoretical framework determines how the regional distribution of the population a ects government size. We test this theory on panel data of 175 countries from 1960 to 2010 and two state-level samples from Colombia and Germany. Results demonstrate a strong positive e ect from urbanization on government spending, with a 1 percent increase in the amount of urban citizens leading to a 0.2 percent rise in public expenditure. Our ndings indicate that public sectors may become more important as worldwide urbanization is progressing. This result underlines why government e ectiveness and the quality of public goods provision will be even more important in the future