Plasma sTNFR1 and IL8 for prognostic enrichment in sepsis trials: a prospective cohort study.

BackgroundEnrichment strategies improve therapeutic targeting and trial efficiency, but enrichment factors for sepsis trials are lacking. We determined whether concentrations of soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor-1 (sTNFR1), interleukin-8 (IL8), and angiopoietin-2 (Ang2) could identify sepsis patients at higher mortality risk and serve as prognostic enrichment factors.MethodsIn a multicenter prospective cohort study of 400 critically ill septic patients, we derived and validated thresholds for each marker and expressed prognostic enrichment using risk differences (RD) of 30-day mortality as predictive values. We then used decision curve analysis to simulate the prognostic enrichment of each marker and compare different prognostic enrichment strategies.Measurements and main resultsAn admission sTNFR1 concentration > 8861 pg/ml identified patients with increased mortality in both the derivation (RD 21.6%) and validation (RD 17.8%) populations. Among immunocompetent patients, an IL8 concentration > 94 pg/ml identified patients with increased mortality in both the derivation (RD 17.7%) and validation (RD 27.0%) populations. An Ang2 level > 9761 pg/ml identified patients at 21.3% and 12.3% increased risk of mortality in the derivation and validation populations, respectively. Using sTNFR1 or IL8 to select high-risk patients improved clinical trial power and efficiency compared to selecting patients with septic shock. Ang2 did not outperform septic shock as an enrichment factor.ConclusionsThresholds for sTNFR1 and IL8 consistently identified sepsis patients with higher mortality risk and may have utility for prognostic enrichment in sepsis trials

SNP-set analysis replicates acute lung injury genetic risk factors

Abstract Background We used a gene – based replication strategy to test the reproducibility of prior acute lung injury (ALI) candidate gene associations. Methods We phenotyped 474 patients from a prospective severe trauma cohort study for ALI. Genomic DNA from subjects’ blood was genotyped using the IBC chip, a multiplex single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array. Results were filtered for 25 candidate genes selected using prespecified literature search criteria and present on the IBC platform. For each gene, we grouped SNPs according to haplotype blocks and tested the joint effect of all SNPs on susceptibility to ALI using the SNP-set kernel association test. Results were compared to single SNP analysis of the candidate SNPs. Analyses were separate for genetically determined ancestry (African or European). Results We identified 4 genes in African ancestry and 2 in European ancestry trauma subjects which replicated their associations with ALI. Ours is the first replication of IL6, IL10, IRAK3, and VEGFA associations in non-European populations with ALI. Only one gene – VEGFA – demonstrated association with ALI in both ancestries, with distinct haplotype blocks in each ancestry driving the association. We also report the association between trauma-associated ALI and NFKBIA in European ancestry subjects. Conclusions Prior ALI genetic associations are reproducible and replicate in a trauma cohort. Kernel - based SNP-set analysis is a more powerful method to detect ALI association than single SNP analysis, and thus may be more useful for replication testing. Further, gene-based replication can extend candidate gene associations to diverse ethnicities.</p

Low to Moderate Air Pollutant Exposure and Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome after Severe Trauma

RationaleExposure to air pollution has molecular and physiologic effects on the lung that may increase the risk of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) after injury.ObjectivesTo determine the association of short- and long-term air pollutant exposures and ARDS risk after severe trauma.MethodsWe analyzed data from a prospective cohort of 996 critically ill patients presenting with acute trauma and an injury severity score greater than 15. Exposures to ozone, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide, and particulate matter less than 2.5 μm were assessed by weighted averages of daily levels from all monitors within 50 km of the geocoded location of a patient's residence. Patients were followed for 6 days for the development of ARDS according to Berlin Criteria. The association between each exposure and ARDS was determined via multivariable logistic regression adjusting for potential confounders.Measurements and main resultsARDS developed in 243 (24%) patients. None of the short-term exposures averaged over the 3 days before presentation was associated with ARDS, except sulfur dioxide, which demonstrated a nonlinear association. Nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, and particulate matter less than or equal to 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter exposure over the 6 weeks before presentation was significantly associated with ARDS (P &lt; 0.05). All long-term exposures (3 yr) were associated with ARDS (P &lt; 0.01) in adjusted models, despite exposure levels largely below U.S. and European Union air quality standards.ConclusionsLong-term low- to moderate-level air pollutant exposure is associated with a greater risk of developing ARDS after severe trauma and represents a novel and potentially modifiable environmental risk factor for ARDS

Identification of Distinct Clinical Subphenotypes in Critically Ill Patients With COVID-19.

BackgroundSubphenotypes have been identified in patients with sepsis and ARDS and are associated with different outcomes and responses to therapies.Research questionCan unique subphenotypes be identified among critically ill patients with COVID-19?Study design and methodsUsing data from a multicenter cohort study that enrolled critically ill patients with COVID-19 from 67 hospitals across the United States, we randomly divided centers into discovery and replication cohorts. We used latent class analysis independently in each cohort to identify subphenotypes based on clinical and laboratory variables. We then analyzed the associations of subphenotypes with 28-day mortality.ResultsLatent class analysis identified four subphenotypes (SP) with consistent characteristics across the discovery (45 centers; n&nbsp;= 2,188) and replication (22 centers; n&nbsp;= 1,112) cohorts. SP1 was characterized by shock, acidemia, and multiorgan dysfunction, including acute kidney injury treated with renal replacement therapy. SP2 was characterized by high C-reactive protein, early need for mechanical ventilation, and the highest rate of ARDS. SP3 showed the highest burden of chronic diseases, whereas SP4 demonstrated limited chronic disease burden and mild physiologic abnormalities. Twenty-eight-day mortality in the discovery cohort ranged from 20.6%&nbsp;(SP4) to 52.9%&nbsp;(SP1). Mortality across subphenotypes remained different after adjustment for demographics, comorbidities, organ dysfunction and illness severity, regional and hospital factors. Compared with SP4, the relative risks were as follows: SP1, 1.67 (95%&nbsp;CI, 1.36-2.03); SP2, 1.39 (95%&nbsp;CI, 1.17-1.65); and SP3, 1.39 (95%&nbsp;CI, 1.15-1.67). Findings were similar in the replication cohort.InterpretationWe identified four subphenotypes of COVID-19 critical illness with distinct patterns of clinical and laboratory characteristics, comorbidity burden, and mortality

Plasma sTNFR1 and IL8 for prognostic enrichment in sepsis trials: a prospective cohort study.

BackgroundEnrichment strategies improve therapeutic targeting and trial efficiency, but enrichment factors for sepsis trials are lacking. We determined whether concentrations of soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor-1 (sTNFR1), interleukin-8 (IL8), and angiopoietin-2 (Ang2) could identify sepsis patients at higher mortality risk and serve as prognostic enrichment factors.MethodsIn a multicenter prospective cohort study of 400 critically ill septic patients, we derived and validated thresholds for each marker and expressed prognostic enrichment using risk differences (RD) of 30-day mortality as predictive values. We then used decision curve analysis to simulate the prognostic enrichment of each marker and compare different prognostic enrichment strategies.Measurements and main resultsAn admission sTNFR1 concentration &gt; 8861 pg/ml identified patients with increased mortality in both the derivation (RD 21.6%) and validation (RD 17.8%) populations. Among immunocompetent patients, an IL8 concentration &gt; 94 pg/ml identified patients with increased mortality in both the derivation (RD 17.7%) and validation (RD 27.0%) populations. An Ang2 level &gt; 9761 pg/ml identified patients at 21.3% and 12.3% increased risk of mortality in the derivation and validation populations, respectively. Using sTNFR1 or IL8 to select high-risk patients improved clinical trial power and efficiency compared to selecting patients with septic shock. Ang2 did not outperform septic shock as an enrichment factor.ConclusionsThresholds for sTNFR1 and IL8 consistently identified sepsis patients with higher mortality risk and may have utility for prognostic enrichment in sepsis trials