Quantifying statistical uncertainty in the attribution of human influence on severe weather

Event attribution in the context of climate change seeks to understand the role of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on extreme weather events, either specific events or classes of events. A common approach to event attribution uses climate model output under factual (real-world) and counterfactual (world that might have been without anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions) scenarios to estimate the probabilities of the event of interest under the two scenarios. Event attribution is then quantified by the ratio of the two probabilities. While this approach has been applied many times in the last 15 years, the statistical techniques used to estimate the risk ratio based on climate model ensembles have not drawn on the full set of methods available in the statistical literature and have in some cases used and interpreted the bootstrap method in non-standard ways. We present a precise frequentist statistical framework for quantifying the effect of sampling uncertainty on estimation of the risk ratio, propose the use of statistical methods that are new to event attribution, and evaluate a variety of methods using statistical simulations. We conclude that existing statistical methods not yet in use for event attribution have several advantages over the widely-used bootstrap, including better statistical performance in repeated samples and robustness to small estimated probabilities. Software for using the methods is available through the climextRemes package available for R or Python. While we focus on frequentist statistical methods, Bayesian methods are likely to be particularly useful when considering sources of uncertainty beyond sampling uncertainty.Comment: 41 pages, 11 figures, 1 tabl

The Environmental Impacts of Trade Liberalization: A Quantitative Analysis for the United States Using TEAM

A highly disaggregated emissions factor model is presented. The model generates changes in emissions and resource use by state and 6-digit NAICS sector. Removal of all U.S. import restrictions is examined. Results for agriculture show that composition effects explain highly varied regional patterns of emission changes. Scale effects are also important for expanding sectors. Quantitative assessments such as this may prove useful in conducting full environmental reviews of U.S. trade agreements consistent with Executive Order 13141 and the Free Trade Act of 2002.trade, emissions, input-output, residuals, International Relations/Trade,

Quantifying the effect of interannual ocean variability on the attribution of extreme climate events to human influence

In recent years, the climate change research community has become highly interested in describing the anthropogenic influence on extreme weather events, commonly termed "event attribution." Limitations in the observational record and in computational resources motivate the use of uncoupled, atmosphere/land-only climate models with prescribed ocean conditions run over a short period, leading up to and including an event of interest. In this approach, large ensembles of high-resolution simulations can be generated under factual observed conditions and counterfactual conditions that might have been observed in the absence of human interference; these can be used to estimate the change in probability of the given event due to anthropogenic influence. However, using a prescribed ocean state ignores the possibility that estimates of attributable risk might be a function of the ocean state. Thus, the uncertainty in attributable risk is likely underestimated, implying an over-confidence in anthropogenic influence. In this work, we estimate the year-to-year variability in calculations of the anthropogenic contribution to extreme weather based on large ensembles of atmospheric model simulations. Our results both quantify the magnitude of year-to-year variability and categorize the degree to which conclusions of attributable risk are qualitatively affected. The methodology is illustrated by exploring extreme temperature and precipitation events for the northwest coast of South America and northern-central Siberia; we also provides results for regions around the globe. While it remains preferable to perform a full multi-year analysis, the results presented here can serve as an indication of where and when attribution researchers should be concerned about the use of atmosphere-only simulations

Josephson Currents in Quantum Hall Devices

We consider a simple model for an SNS Josephson junction in which the "normal metal" is a section of a filling-factor $\nu=2$ integer quantum-Hall edge. We provide analytic expressions for the current/phase relations to all orders in the coupling between the superconductor and the quantum Hall edge modes, and for all temperatures. Our conclusions are consistent with the earlier perturbative study by Ma and Zyuzin [Europhysics Letters {\bf 21} 941-945 (1993)]: The Josephson current is independent of the distance between the superconducting leads, and the upper bound on the maximum Josephson current is inversely proportional to the perimeter of the Hall device.Comment: Revtex4. 22 pages 9 figures. Replaced version has minor typos fixed and one added referenc

Bohr-Sommerfeld quantization of spin Hamiltonians

The Bohr-Sommerfeld rule for a spin system is obtained, including the first quantum corrections. The rule applies to both integer and half-integer spin, and respects Kramers degeneracy for time-reversal invariant systems. It is tested for various models, in particular the Lipkin-Meshkov-Glick model, and found to agree very well with exact results.Comment: Revtex 4, no figures, 1 tabl

The Glutamate and Chloride Permeation Pathways Are Colocalized in Individual Neuronal Glutamate Transporter Subunits

Glutamate transporters have a homotrimeric subunit structure with a large central water-filled cavity that extends partially into the plane of the lipid bilayer (Yernool et al., 2004). In addition to uptake of glutamate, the transporters also mediate a chloride conductance that is increased in the presence of substrate. Whether the chloride channel is located in the central pore of the trimer or within the individual subunits has been controversial. We find that coexpression of wild-type neuronal glutamate transporter EAAT3 subunits with subunits mutated at R447, a residue governing substrate selectivity (Bendahan et al., 2000), results in transport activity consistent with two distinct noninteracting populations of transporters, in agreement with previous work suggesting that each subunit operates independently to transport substrate (Awes et al., 2004; Grewer et al., 2005; Koch and Larsson, 2005). In wild-type homotrimeric transporters, the glutamate concentration dependence of the anion conductance and the kinetics of glutamate flux were isolated and measured, and the anion channel activation was fitted to analytical expressions corresponding to (1) a central pore gated by binding to one or more subunits and (2) a channel pore in each subunit. The data indicate that glutamate-binding sites, transport pathways, and chloride channels reside in individual subunits in a trimer and function independently

High Spatial Resolution Thermal-Infrared Spectroscopy with ALES: Resolved Spectra of the Benchmark Brown Dwarf Binary HD 130948BC

We present 2.9-4.1 micron integral field spectroscopy of the L4+L4 brown dwarf binary HD 130948BC, obtained with the Arizona Lenslets for Exoplanet Spectroscopy (ALES) mode of the Large Binocular Telescope Interferometer (LBTI). The HD 130948 system is a hierarchical triple system, in which the G2V primary is joined by two co-orbiting brown dwarfs. By combining the age of the system with the dynamical masses and luminosities of the substellar companions, we can test evolutionary models of cool brown dwarfs and extra-solar giant planets. Previous near-infrared studies suggest a disagreement between HD 130948BC luminosities and those derived from evolutionary models. We obtained spatially-resolved, low-resolution (R~20) L-band spectra of HD 130948B and C to extend the wavelength coverage into the thermal infrared. Jointly using JHK photometry and ALES L-band spectra for HD 130948BC, we derive atmospheric parameters that are consistent with parameters derived from evolutionary models. We leverage the consistency of these atmospheric quantities to favor a younger age (0.50 \pm 0.07 Gyr) of the system compared to the older age (0.79 \pm 0.22 Gyr) determined with gyrochronology in order to address the luminosity discrepancy.Comment: 17 pages, 9 figures, Accepted to Ap

Effector memory differentiation increases detection of replication-competent HIV-l in resting CD4+ T cells from virally suppressed individuals.

Studies have demonstrated that intensive ART alone is not capable of eradicating HIV-1, as the virus rebounds within a few weeks upon treatment interruption. Viral rebound may be induced from several cellular subsets; however, the majority of proviral DNA has been found in antigen experienced resting CD4+ T cells. To achieve a cure for HIV-1, eradication strategies depend upon both understanding mechanisms that drive HIV-1 persistence as well as sensitive assays to measure the frequency of infected cells after therapeutic interventions. Assays such as the quantitative viral outgrowth assay (QVOA) measure HIV-1 persistence during ART by ex vivo activation of resting CD4+ T cells to induce latency reversal; however, recent studies have shown that only a fraction of replication-competent viruses are inducible by primary mitogen stimulation. Previous studies have shown a correlation between the acquisition of effector memory phenotype and HIV-1 latency reversal in quiescent CD4+ T cell subsets that harbor the reservoir. Here, we apply our mechanistic understanding that differentiation into effector memory CD4+ T cells more effectively promotes HIV-1 latency reversal to significantly improve proviral measurements in the QVOA, termed differentiation QVOA (dQVOA), which reveals a significantly higher frequency of the inducible HIV-1 replication-competent reservoir in resting CD4+ T cells

End states, ladder compounds, and domain wall fermions

A magnetic field applied to a cross linked ladder compound can generate isolated electronic states bound to the ends of the chain. After exploring the interference phenomena responsible, I discuss a connection to the domain wall approach to chiral fermions in lattice gauge theory. The robust nature of the states under small variations of the bond strengths is tied to chiral symmetry and the multiplicative renormalization of fermion masses.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures; final version for Phys. Rev. Let