Design of the primary and secondary Pre-TRMM and TRMM ground truth sites

Results generated over six months are covered in five manuscripts: (1) estimates of rain volume over the Peninsula of Florida during the summer season based upon the Manually Digitized Radar data; (2) the diurnal characteristics of rainfall over Florida and over the near shore waters; (3) convective rainfall as measured over the east coast of central Florida; (4) the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall over Florida; and (5) comparisons between the land based radar and an optical raingage onboard an anchored buoy 50 km offshore

Terrorist Strategy And Global Economic Implications

This paper attempts to show that Al Qaeda leaders follow a basic model of utility maximization constrained by their available resources. Their resource constraints led to what appears to be a relatively flat transnational organizational model design in an attempt to challenge the U.S. military pyramid and free market American system. It is suggested that the 911 attacks were meant to serve as a catalyst to induce the U.S. to respond in a manner that might move the terrorists closer to their objectives. That may not have occurred but the 911 attacks were cost effective in creating large dollar costs on the U.S. and global economy. The direct costs of the attacks for the U.S. were much less important than the cumulative costs accruing to the U.S. and global economy from, in part, the post 911 U.S. response to the attacks.  Longer run expected economic costs of 911 attacks range from increased private and public sector expenditures, a slowing of growth in global trade, to expected adverse effects on potential output and increased volatility of business cycles. The U.S. response to terrorist activity in terms of increased outlays and tighter security measures appears to be based on the assumption that terrorists may plan to use weapons of mass destruction at some point and/or the U.S. is extrapolating an annual terrorist event of a magnitude equivalent to the 911 casualties and costs. Otherwise, historical civilian casualty numbers resulting from terrorist actions over the past several decades may not warrant this sizeable U.S. response. But U.S. consumers and taxpayers seem willing to pay higher costs to reduce the threat of terrorist attacks in the U.S. Other countries, in comparison, seem to rely more on historical civilian casualties in formulating their response. Of course, free-rider benefits do accrue to our Allies from U.S. military actions abroad

Case Study: Trademark Infringement Issues

This is a case study of trademark infringement disputes.  One of the authors (M. Cosgrove) incorporated The Econoclast, Inc. in 1979. The company provides capital market publications to financial and nonfinancial institutions, and owns the trademark Econoclast®. Over the years, others have attempted to use the same name for similar services. This case study presents the practical steps that Cosgrove undertook to prevent infringement of his trademark in various cases that occurred since our prior paper was published in 2005 (Cosgrove, Marsh and Chester.) The paper also explains the basics of trademark law, the meaning of trademark infringement, and obligations of the trademark owner.

Why The Quantity Of Money Still Matters

The operating procedure of Federal Reserve policy focuses almost exclusively on interest rates, in particular short term rates such as the federal funds rate. Conventional wisdom today interprets a low federal funds rate as an indicator of an expansionary monetary policy, and a high federal funds rate as indicative of a contractionary policy. Our thesis is that this conventional wisdom is flawed. We develop a quantity theory model to illustrate how changes in the real money supply can impact both the price level and real output. We present data showing that when the Fed slows the rate of growth of the monetary base to approximately the growth rate of GDP, that this slowdown also impacts real variables. However, according to comments, the Federal Reserve pays little attention to the quantity of money. Finally we asked: Since the Federal Reserve pays little attention to the quantity of money, what variables does the FOMC likely consider in deciding to alter the federal funds rate? The answer, perhaps not surprisingly, appears to be variables readily measured and easily related to by the general public – prices and capacity

Globalization And The Federal Reserve

A group of developing countries including China, India and Mexico entered the global marketplace post-1980 making a major contribution to disinflation in the U.S. and other developed countries. Movement by developing countries toward free trade led to unexpectedly large gains from specialization and exchange including the contribution to global disinflation through flows of goods, capital, technology and in particular abundant labor. These gains from trade led to a slowing in U.S. cost-push inflation pressures and enhancement of productivity gains. Gains from free trade have been widespread, with benefits accruing to both developed and developing countries in the period since 1980. In comparison, gains from trade were restricted primarily to developed economies in the 1945 to 1980 time period. The Federal Reserve and other central banks followed monetary policies conducive to the post-1980 period of disinflation but the contribution to disinflation through gains from trade does not seem to be incorporated into the monetary policy of central banks.  In Japan, disinflation turned into deflation and Germany’s disinflation is on the verge of doing the same. Deflation concerns are also voiced in the U.S. The premise of this paper is that the overshoot from the price stability objective to deflation fears or outright deflation on part of the Federal Reserve and other major central banks is due to gains from trade with developing countries. Policy implication -- the Federal Reserve and other central banks need to increase the quantity of money at a more rapid pace than would normally occur to account for the contribution to disinflation from gains from trade among developed and developing countries.

Importance Of Money And Credit

The thesis of this paper is that the Federal Reserve could better achieve their goals if they paid more attention to quantity targets of both money and credit. The rapid growth in credit that ended in the credit crisis of 2007 and 2008 might have been avoided had the Federal Reserve attempted to incorporate quantitative credit measures in assessing policy. But their focus on short-term interest rates in conducting monetary policy to the exclusion of credit measures led to inaction on their part. The stability of the demand for money and credit determined by this analysis suggests the Federal Reserve could have taken policy steps early in this cycle – jawboning, quantitative and regulatory – to temper the credit bubble and potentially avoid the credit crisis

Tight Money And Loose Credit In An Open Economy

The U.S. Federal Reserve has been following a tight money policy, defined by growth in the quantity of money compared to nominal GDP growth since the first quarter of 2004. The Fed has also increased the federal funds rate 17 times in a row by August 8, 2006. Normally, this degree of tightening would be reflected in a slowing of real economic activity by mid-2006, with subsequent lowering of inflation pressures. Yet evidence of a slowdown only materialized in the second quarter of 2006. The housing sector illustrated signs of softening as the inventory numbers started to rise. Are there different factors influencing the effectiveness of monetary policy in this tightening cycle from prior tightening cycles in the Greenspan era? Our thesis is that the linkage between money and credit has become weaker in this cycle. Money appeared to be tight over the relevant time period, while credit was loose. Normally the two move in the same direction – when monetary policy tightens, credit conditions also tighten. But that didn’t occur until very late in the tightening cycle, as credit remained plentiful. Long term interest rates remained low, compared to prior tightening cycles over the cycle. This divergence, in the assessment of the authors, is due to three factors: 1) an increase in monetary base velocity, 2) large net inflows of capital into the U.S., in particular from the Far East – Japan and China, and 3) the expansion of the markets for securitized assets. Rising incomes and high saving rates in the Far East combined with a relaxation of international capital controls resulted in a flood of savings washing up on America’s shores. The securitization of bank-originated assets—originally home mortgages, but now including auto finance loans and credit card debt—has loosened the link between bank reserves and the level of credit in the economy.  These factors combined to explain why credit is loose in the U.S. while money appeared tight. A U.S. economy with these characteristics explains in part why the connection between domestic money policy and credit market conditions has been weakened

Lessons From Japan

We argue that Japan’s experience with fiscal policy over the period 1990-2009 confirms the rational expectations and new classical position that fiscal policy, particularly when it is not accompanied by an accommodating monetary policy, is ineffective.  We show that Japan’s combination of a loose fiscal policy, together with a tight monetary policy has given them the worst of all possible worlds over the past twenty years; i.e. slow growth, deflation, rising unemployment, and a huge increase in their national debt burden.  We argue that the Obama administration should be careful not to fall into the same trap the Japanese have been floundering in for the past twenty years.&nbsp