How Similar Are European Business Cycles?

In this paper, we focus on how European economic integration has affected the synchronization and the magnitude of business cycles among participating countries. We measure, based on bandpass filtered data, the characteristics of European business cycles analyzing to what extent they have become more similar over time. We also consider the role of other factors such as differences in fiscal and monetary policy, border effects, and trade intensity. Our main finding is that European business cycles are highly synchronized, although we also find that synchronization was higher during periods with highly flexible exchange rates. In addition we find a positive tradeoff between timing and magnitude such that more synchronization coincides with larger relative magnitude. These results raise concern about the consequences of a common monetary policy within EMU.business cycles; symmetry and co{movement of cycles; magnitude of cycles; economic integration; monetary union

Grackles

Numbering in the tens of millions of birds, grackle populations in North America can cause a variety of conflicts with people. Grackles eat agricultural crops and livestock feed, damage property, spread pathogens, and collide with aircraft. Their large roosts can be a nuisance in urban and suburban areas. A combination of dispersal techniques, exclusion, and lethal removal may help to reduce grackle damage. Grackles adapt easily to human-dominated environments, and exploit human food and other features of human landscapes. Thus, an integrated damage management approach to grackle damage focuses on reducing and eliminating the damage, rather than simply controlling grackle populations. Three species of grackles are present in North America: the common grackle, the boat-tailed grackle, and the great-tailed grackle. A fourth species, the greater Antillean grackle (Q. niger) is present in Puerto Rico. All are part of the Family Icteridae that includes blackbirds, orioles, cowbirds, meadowlarks, and bobolinks. The population status of all three grackle species is considered common to overabundant

Detection of CI line emission from the detached CO shell of the AGB star R Sculptoris

Stars on the asymptotic giant branch (AGB) lose substantial amounts of matter, to the extent that they are important for the chemical evolution of, and dust production in, the universe. The mass loss is believed to increase gradually with age on the AGB, but it may also occur in the form of bursts, possibly related to the thermal pulsing phenomenon. Detached, geometrically thin, CO shells around carbon stars are good signposts of brief and intense mass ejection. We aim to put further constraints on the physical properties of detached CO shells around AGB stars. The photodissociation of CO and other carbon-bearing species in the shells leads to the possibility of detecting lines from neutral carbon. We have therefore searched for the CI(^3P_1-\,^3P_0) line at 492 GHz towards two carbon stars, S Sct and R Scl, with detached CO shells of different ages, about 8000 and 2300 years, respectively. The CI(^3P_1-\,^3P_0) line was detected towards R Scl. The line intensity is dominated by emission from the detached shell. The detection is at a level consistent with the neutral carbon coming from the full photodissociation of all species except CO, and with only limited photoionisation of carbon. The best fit to the observed $^{12}$CO and $^{13}$CO line intensities, assuming a homogeneous shell, is obtained for a shell mass of about 0.002 $M_\odot$, a temperature of about 100 K, and a CO abundance with respect to H$_2$ of 10$^{-3}$. The estimated CI/CO abundance ratio is about 0.3 for the best-fit model. However, a number of arguments point in the direction of a clumpy medium, and a viable interpretation of the data within such a context is provided

Currency Crises and Monetary Policy in an Economy with Credit Constraints: The No Interest Parity Case

This paper revisits the currency crises model of Aghion, Bacchetta and Banerjee (2000, 2001, 2004), who show that if there exist nominal price rigidities and private sector credit constraints, and the credit multiplier depends on real interest rates, then the optimal monetary policy response to the threat of a currency crisis is restrictive. We demonstrate that this result is primarily due to the uncovered interest parity assumption. Assuming that the exchange rate is a martingale restores the case for expansionary reaction - even with foreign-currency debt in firms' balance sheets. The effect of lower interest rates on output can help restore the value of the currency due to increased money demand.currency crises; foreign–currency debt; balance sheets; interest parity; monetary policy

Business Cycle Synchronization in Europe: Evidence from the Scandinavian Currency Union

This paper studies business cycle synchronization in the three Scandinavian countries Denmark, Norway and Sweden prior to, during and after the Scandinavian Currency Union 1873-1913. We find that the degree of synchronization tended to increase during the currency union, thus supporting earlier empirical evidence. Estimates of factor models suggest that common Scandinavian shocks are important for these three countries. At the same time we find evidence suggesting that the importance of these shocks does not depend on the monetary regime.european union, eu, denmark, sweden, norway, jonung, bergman, scandinavian currency, union synchronisation of cycles, co-movement of cycles, monetary unions symnetry, symmetry european business cycles

Best in class: Public finances in Sweden during the financial crisis

This paper studies why public finances in Sweden have remained very strong during the current financial crisis. Unlike almost all other European countries, Sweden has had budget surpluses and a government debt ratio around 40 percent of GDP during the recent crisis. We attribute this to two important factors. First, Sweden entered the crisis with strong public finances and second that unemployment did not rise as much as normally during recessions. The Swedish fiscal framework that was introduced after the banking crisis in the early 1990s with expenditure ceilings, a top-down budget process, balanced budget requirement for local governments has played an important role. We show that the behavior of budget deficits has changed significantly recently, from a deficit bias to a surplus bias. Aggregate demand remained strong during the crisis even though exports fell sharply. As unemployment in the manufacturing sector increased, it was to a large extent offset by increased employment in the service sector

Cationic Cyclization Involving a Remote Allene Function in the Trifluoroethanolysis of Hepta-5,6-dienyl Toluene-p-sulphonate

The remote allene function participates efficiently in the trifluoroethanolysis of hepta-5,6-dienyl toluene-p-sulphonate, leading to the cyclized 2-methylenecyclohexyl cation

Person-Organization Fit Perceptions and the Job Choice Process: The Impact of Supplementary and Complementary Fit on Attitudes, Intentions, and Job Search Behaviors

Although there has been a growing interest in studying the effects that Person- Organization fit perceptions have on the job choice process, at least two gaps exist in this literature. First, despite evidence suggesting that both the supplementary and complementary fit traditions should be used together, previous research efforts have focused almost exclusively on supplementary fit. Second, research in the job choice domain has focused mainly on global assessments of Person-Organization fit and has not examined if the different characteristics individuals consider when evaluating their fit with an organization impacts the job choice process. The current study helps to fill these voids by examining how both the conceptualization of fit (supplementary vs. complementary) and the characteristics on which fit perceptions are based (content dimensions) impact the relationship between perceived Person-Organization fit and organizational attraction, intentions to join the organization, and engagement in job search behaviors. Results show that both perceptions of supplementary fit (value congruence) and complementary fit (psychological need fulfillment) significantly contributed to the prediction of job choice outcomes. Results also provided weak support for the notion that the fit-outcome relationship was dependent upon the content of the dimension on which fit was assessed. Together, these results suggest that the current view of how perceptions of Person-Organization fit impact the job choice process is incomplete

Dissecting the PPP Puzzle: The Unconventional Roles of Nominal Exchange Rate and Price Adjustment

The conventional view, as expounded by sticky-price models, is that price adjustment determines the PPP reversion rate. This study examines the mechanism by which PPP deviations are corrected. Nominal exchange rate adjustment, not price adjustment, is shown to be the key engine governing the speed of PPP convergence. Moreover, nominal exchange rates are found to converge much more slowly than prices. With the reversion being driven primarily by nominal exchange rates, real exchange rates also revert at a slower rate than prices, as identified by the PPP puzzle (Rogoff, 1996).