Estimation of the stage-wise costs of breast cancer in Germany using a modeling approach

Breast cancer (BC) is a heterogeneous disease representing a substantial economic burden. In order to develop policies that successfully decrease this burden, the factors affecting costs need to be fully understood. Evidence suggests that early-stage BC has a lower cost than a late stage BC. We aim to provide conservative estimates of BC's stage-wise medical costs from German healthcare and the payer's perspective. To this end, we conducted a literature review of articles evaluating stage-wise costs of BC in Germany through PubMed, Web of Science, and Econ Lit databases supplemented by Google Scholar. We developed a decision tree model to estimate BC-related medical costs in Germany using available treatment and cost information. The review generated seven studies; none estimated the stage-wise costs of BC. The studies were classified into two groups: case scenarios (five studies) and two studies based on administrative data. The first sickness funds data study (Gruber et al., 2012) used information from the year 1999 to approach BC attributable cost; their results suggest a range between €3,929 and €11,787 depending on age. The second study (Kreis, Plöthner et al., 2020) used 2011–2014 data and suggested an initial phase incremental cost of €21,499, an intermediate phase cost of €2,620, and a terminal phase cost of €34,513 per incident case. Our decision tree model-based BC stage-wise cost estimates were €21,523 for stage I, €25,679 for stage II, €30,156 for stage III, and €42,086 for stage IV. Alternatively, the modeled cost estimates are €20,284 for the initial phase of care, €851 for the intermediate phase of care, and €34,963 for the terminal phase of care. Our estimates for phases of care are consistent with recent German estimates provided by Kreis et al. Furthermore, the data collected by sickness funds are collected primarily for reimbursement purposes, where the German ICD-10 classification system defines a cancer diagnosis. As a result, claims data lack the clinical information necessary to understand stage-wise BC costs. Our model-based estimates fill the gap and inform future economic evaluations of BC interventions

Resource allocation in the Covid-19 health crisis:are Covid-19 preventive measures consistent with the Rule of Rescue?

Abstract The Covid-19 pandemic has led to a health crisis of a scale unprecedented in post-war Europe. In response, a large amount of healthcare resources have been redirected to Covid-19 preventive measures, for instance population-wide vaccination campaigns, large-scale SARS-CoV-2 testing, and the large-scale distribution of protective equipment (e.g., N95 respirators) to high-risk groups and hospitals and nursing homes. Despite the importance of these measures in epidemiological and economic terms, health economists and medical ethicists have been relatively silent about the ethical rationales underlying the large-scale allocation of healthcare resources to these measures. The present paper seeks to encourage this debate by demonstrating how the resource allocation to Covid-19 preventive measures can be understood through the paradigm of the Rule of Rescue, without claiming that the Rule of Rescue is the sole rationale of resource allocation in the Covid-19 pandemic

Would initiating colorectal cancer screening from age of 45 be cost-effective in Germany? An individual-level simulation analysis

BackgroundColorectal cancer (CRC) screening has been shown to be effective and cost-saving. However, the trend of rising incidence of early-onset CRC challenges the current national screening program solely for people ≥50 years in Germany, where extending the screening to those 45–49 years might be justified. This study aims to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of CRC screening strategies starting at 45 years in Germany.MethodDECAS, an individual-level simulation model accounting for both adenoma and serrated pathways of CRC development and validated with German CRC epidemiology and screening effects, was used for the cost-effectiveness analysis. Four CRC screening strategies starting at age 45, including 10-yearly colonoscopy (COL), annual/biennial fecal immunochemical test (FIT), or the combination of the two, were compared with the current screening offer starting at age 50 years in Germany. Three adherence scenarios were considered: perfect adherence, current adherence, and high screening adherence. For each strategy, a cohort of 100,000 individuals with average CRC risk was simulated from age 20 until 90 or death. Outcomes included CRC cases averted, prevented death, quality-adjusted life-years gained (QALYG), and total incremental costs considering both CRC treatment and screening costs. A 3% discount rate was applied and costs were in 2023 Euro.ResultInitiating 10-yearly colonoscopy-only or combined FIT + COL strategies at age 45 resulted in incremental gains of 7–28 QALYs with incremental costs of €28,360–€71,759 per 1,000 individuals, compared to the current strategy. The ICER varied from €1,029 to €9,763 per QALYG, and the additional number needed for colonoscopy ranged from 129 to 885 per 1,000 individuals. Among the alternatives, a three times colonoscopy strategy starting at 45 years of age proves to be the most effective, while the FIT-only strategy was dominated by the currently implemented strategy. The findings remained consistent across probabilistic sensitivity analyses.ConclusionThe cost-effectiveness findings support initiating CRC screening at age 45 with either colonoscopy alone or combined with FIT, demonstrating substantial gains in quality-adjusted life-years with a modest increase in costs. Our findings emphasize the importance of implementing CRC screening 5 years earlier than the current practice to achieve more significant health and economic benefits

Economic analysis based on multinational studies: methods for adapting findings to national contexts

Background: Health economic parameters are increasingly considered as variables in health care decisions, but decision makers are interested in country-specific evaluations. However, a large number of studies are performed in foreign countries or in a multinational setting, which limits the transferability to a single nation’s context. Objective: The present analysis summarises several of the most common international methods for generating health economic analyses based on clinical studies from different settings. Methods: A narrative literature review was performed to identify potential reasons for limited transferability of health economic evaluation results from one country to another. Based on these results, we searched the methodological literature for analytic approaches to handle the restrictions. Additionally we describe the possibility of transferring foreign economic study results to the country of interest by matching trial data with routine data of national databases. Results: The main factors for limited transferability of health economic findings were found in country-specific differences in resource consumption and the resulting costs. These differences are affected by a number of influencing cofactors (demography, epidemiology and individual patient’s factors) and the overall health care system structures (e.g. payment systems, health provider incentives). However, despite the limitations country-specific health economic assessments could be realised using the pooled/ split analyses approach, some statistical approaches and modelling approaches. Conclusion: A variety of methods for identifying and adjusting country-specific differences in costs, effects and cost-effectiveness was established during the past decades. Multinational studies will continue to play a crucial role in the evaluation of cost-effectiveness at national levels. It seems likely that the growing interest in multinational studies will lead to continued developments in adaptation methods

Impact of Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) on prescription dug spending for children and adolescents: increasing relevance of health economic evidence

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>During the last decade, pharmaceutical spending for patients with attention-deficit-hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) has been escalating internationally.</p> <p>Objectives</p> <p>First, to estimate future trends of ADHD-related drug expenditures from the perspectives of the statutory health insurance (SHI; Gesetzliche Krankenversicherung, GKV) in Germany and the National Health Service (NHS) in England, respectively, for children and adolescents age 6 to 18 years. Second, to evaluate the budgetary impact on individual prescribers (child and adolescent psychiatrists and pediatricians treating patients with ADHD) in Germany.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A model was developed to predict plausible scenarios of future pharmaceutical expenditures for treatment of ADHD. Model inputs were derived from demographic and epidemiological data, a literature review of past spending trends, and an analysis of new pharmaceutical products in development for ADHD. Only products in clinical development phase III or later were considered. Uncertainty was addressed by way of scenario analysis. For each jurisdiction, five scenarios used different assumptions of future diagnosis prevalence, treatment prevalence, rates of adoption and unit costs of novel drugs, and treatment intensity.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Annual ADHD pharmacotherapy expenditures for children and adolescents will further increase and may exceed €310 m (D; E: ₤78 m) in 2012 (2002: ~€21.8 m; ~₤7.0 m). During this period, overall drug spending by individual physicians may increase 2.3- to 9.5-fold, resulting from the multiplicative effects of four variables: increased number of diagnosed cases, growing acceptance and intensity of pharmacotherapy, and higher unit costs of novel medications.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Even for an extreme low case scenario, a more than six-fold increase of pharmaceutical spending for children and adolescents is predicted over the decade from 2002 to 2012, from the perspectives of both the NHS in England and the GKV in Germany. This budgetary impact projection represents a partial analysis only because other expenditures are likely to rise as well, for instance those associated with physician services, including diagnosis and psychosocial treatment. Further to this, by definition budgetary impact analyses have little to nothing to say about clinical appropriateness and about value of money.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Providers of care for children and adolescents with ADHD should anticipate serious challenges related to the cost-effectiveness of interventions.</p

Quality appraisal in systematic literature reviews of studies eliciting health state utility values: conceptual considerations

Background The increasing number of studies that generate health state utility values (HSUVs) and the impact of HSUVs on cost-utility analyses make a robust tailored quality appraisal (QA) tool for systematic reviews of these studies necessary. Objective This study aimed to address conceptual issues regarding QA in systematic reviews of studies eliciting HSUVs by establishing a consensus on the definitions, dimensions and scope of a QA tool specific to this context. Methods A modified Delphi method was used in this study. An international multidisciplinary panel of seven experts was purposively assembled. The experts engaged in two anonymous online survey rounds. After each round, the experts received structured and controlled feedback on the previous phase. Controlled feedback allowed the experts to re-evaluate and adjust their positions based on collective insights. Following these surveys, a virtual face-to-face meeting was held to resolve outstanding issues. Consensus was defined a priori at all stages of the modified Delphi process. Results The response rates to the first-round and second-round questionnaires and the virtual consensus meeting were 100%, 86% and 71%, respectively. The entire process culminated in a consensus on the definitions of scientific quality, QA, the three QA dimensions—reporting, relevance and methodological quality—and the scope of a QA tool specific to studies that elicit HSUVs. Conclusions Achieving this consensus marks a pivotal step towards developing a QA tool specific to systematic reviews of studies eliciting HSUVs. Future research will build on this foundation, identify QA items, signalling questions and response options, and develop a QA tool specific to studies eliciting HSUVs

Evaluating key characteristics of ideal colorectal cancer screening modalities: the microsimulation approach.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS Screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) can effectively reduce CRC incidence and mortality. Besides colonoscopy, tests for the detection of biomarkers in stool, blood, or serum, including the fecal immunochemical test (FIT), ColoGuard, Epi proColon, and PolypDx, have recently been advanced. We aimed to identify the characteristics of theoretic, highly efficient screening tests and calculated the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of available screening tests. METHODS Using the microsimulation-based colon modeling open-source tool (CMOST), we simulated 142,501 theoretic screening tests with variable assumptions for adenoma and carcinoma sensitivity, specificity, test frequency, and adherence, and we identified highly efficient tests outperforming colonoscopy. For available screening tests, we simulated 10 replicates of a virtual population of 2 million individuals, using epidemiologic characteristics and costs assumptions of the United States. RESULTS Highly efficient theoretic screening tests were characterized by high sensitivity for advanced adenoma and carcinoma and high patient adherence. All simulated available screening tests were effective at 100% adherence to screening and at expected real-world adherence rates. All tests were cost effective below the threshold of 100,000 U.S. dollars per life year gained. With perfect adherence, FIT was the most effective and cost-efficient intervention, whereas Epi proColon was the most effective at expected real-world adherence rates. In our sensitivity analysis, assumptions for patient adherence had the strongest impact on effectiveness of screening. CONCLUSIONS Our microsimulation study identified characteristics of highly efficient theoretic screening tests and confirmed the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of colonoscopy and available urine-, blood-, and stool-based tests. Better patient adherence results in superior effectiveness for CRC prevention in the whole population