RECYCLING, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF POLLUTION: THE EFFECT OF INCREASED U.S. PAPER RECYCLING ON U.S. IMPORT DEMAND FOR CANADIAN PAPER

The quantity of paper recycled in the U.S. has more than doubled since 1985. International trade theory predicts that this will lead to reduced imports of paper, and a shift in domestic production toward waste paper intensive outputs (e.g., newsprint) and away from higher grade products such as printing/writing paper. Import demand elasticities with respect to input prices were estimated for newsprint, printing/writing, and all paper utilizing 20 years of monthly data. The empirical results confirm the predictions of theory, and illustrate a channel through which recycling may be more beneficial for U.S. industry than the domestic environment.Import demand, Paper industry, Pollution, Recycling, Environmental Economics and Policy,

PREEMPTIVE HABITAT DESTRUCTION AND THE ENDANGERED SPECIES ACT: THE CASE OF THE RED-COCKADED WOODPECKER

An economic model illustrating a southern forest landowner's incentive to increase timber harvest in response to the risk of red-cockaded woodpecker colonization and subsequent regulation under the Endangered Species Act is developed. The empirical results show that industrial landownders respond to these incentives, whereas non-industrial private forest landowners do not.Environmental Economics and Policy, Industrial Organization,

The Changing Composition of American-Citizen PhDs

We describe patterns in the composition of American-citizen doctorate recipients from the early 1960s to 2000. The propensity of bachelor’s degree recipients to earn PhDs varied widely during the 1960s and 1970s, especially for men, but has been relatively constant since the early 1980s. PhD propensity varies widely across students from different types of BA institutions, with higher propensities among those attending research universities and selective liberal-arts colleges. The share of PhDs awarded to women increased dramatically over the past 40 years and was driven largely by increases in the number of women earning BAs

ARE U.S. FARM PROGRAMS GOOD PUBLIC POLICY? TAKING POLICY PERFORMANCE SERIOUSLY

Distributional analysis is employed to assess the ethical acceptability of agricultural policy along plurastic moral criteria. Using 1999 micro-data from USDA ARMS survey and the Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Finances, we discuss policy performance (measured as the effect of direct government payments on the distribution of incomes and profits) relative to policy goals. We show that current programs only minimally address the post-?farm problem? objective of providing a safety net, and the goal of providing an abundant supply of agricultural products is potentially well-implemented given institutional constraints.Agricultural and Food Policy,

A Tariff-Growth Paradox? Protection's Impact the World Around 1875-1997

This paper uses a new database to establish two findings covering the first globalization boom before World War I, the second since World War II, and the autarkic interlude in between. First, there is strong evidence supporting a Tariff-Growth Paradox: protection was associated with fast growth before World War II, while it was associated with slow growth thereafter. Second, there is strong evidence supporting regional asymmetry: while the tariff-growth association was powerful and positive in the Core and rich New World before World War II, it was typically weak and negative in the poor Periphery. The paper offers explanations for the Paradox by controlling for a changing world economic environment. It shows how the oft-quoted Sachs-Warner results for 1970-1989 are significantly revised when one controls for trading partners' growth, trading partners' tariffs and the effective distance between them over the longer half-century 1950-1997. Falling partners' tariffs was the most important force accounting for the switch in sign on the tariff-growth connection after 1950. An increase in own tariffs after 1950 hurt growth, but it would not have hurt growth in a world where partners' tariffs were much higher, trading partners' growth much slower, and the world less closely connected by transportation. World environment matters. Leader-country reaction to big world events (like the Great Depression) matter. Followers take notice.

Where did British Foreign Capital Go? Fundamentals, Failures and the Lucas Paradox: 1870-1913

A decade has passed since Robert Lucas asked why capital does not flow from rich to poor countries. Lucas used a contemporary example to illustrate his Paradox, the very modest flow of capital from the United States to India during the second great global capital market boom, after 1970. Had he paid more attention to the first great global capital market boom, after 1870, he might have been less surprised. Very little of British capital exports went to poor, labor-abundant countries. Indeed, about two-thirds of it went to the labor-scarce New World where only a tenth of the world's population lived, and only about a quarter of it went to labor-abundant Asia and Africa where almost two-thirds of the world's population lived. Why? Was it caused by some international market failure, or was it due to some shortfall in underlying economic, demographic or geographic fundamentals that made capital's productivity low in poor countries? This paper constructs a panel data set for 34 countries who as a group got 92 percent of British capital, and uses it to conclude that international capital market failure (including whether the country was on or off the Gold Standard) was not involved. It then ranks the three big fundamentals that mattered schooling, natural resources and demography.

Cosmological baryon and lepton number in the presence of electroweak fermion-number violation

In the presence of rapid fermion-number violation due to nonperturbative electroweak effects certain relations between the baryon number of the Universe and the lepton numbers of the Universe are predicted. In some cases the electron-neutrino asymmetry is exactly specified in terms of the baryon asymmetry. Without introducing new particles, beyond the usual quarks and leptons, it is necessary that the Universe possess a nonzero value of B - L prior to the epoch of fermion-number violation if baryon and lepton asymmetries are to survive. Contrary to intuition, even though electroweak processes violate B + L, a nonzero value of B + L persists after the epoch of rapid fermion-number violation. If the standard model is extended to include lepton-number violation, for example through Majorana neutrino masses, then electroweak processes will reduce the baryon number to zero even in the presence of an initial B - L unless 20 M(sub L) approximately greater than the square root of (T(sub B - L) m(sub P1)) where M(sub L) sets the scale of lepton number violation and T(sub B - L) is the temperature at which a B - L asymmetry is produced. In many models this implies that neutrinos must be so light that they cannot contribute appreciably to the mass density of the Universe

THE ROLE OF EXPECTATIONS AND HETEROGENEOUS PREFERENCES FOR CONGESTION IN THE VALUATION OF RECREATION BENEFITS

Studies of recreation congestion generally utilize nonmarket valuation techniques to determine the use level and entrance price that maximize aggregate recreation benefits for a specific recreation area. This paper improves upon these previous studies by relaxing the assumption of homogeneous preferences among visitors of the same recreation area and accounting for visitor expectations of congestion. The results indicate that failing to account for heterogeneous preferences for congestion by time of visit leads to overestimates of the benefits of relieving peak-time congestion, while accounting for expectations raises questions about the validity of the standard optimal use model.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Closed Jaguar, Open Dragon: Comparing Tariffs in Latin America and Asia before World War II

Despite an enormous literature that has analyzed the comparative experiences of Latin America and Asia in post-World War II trade policy, almost no attention has been paid to the comparative experience prior to the wars. Even a cursory look at the best available empirical evidence reveals tremendous contrasts between the two regions. Latin America had the highest tariff barriers on earth before 1914; Asia had the lowest. Protected Latin America's belle ‚poque also boasted some of the most explosive growth performance on earth, while Asia registered some of the worst. What brought the two regions to the opposite ends of the tariff policy spectrum? And why are these quantum differences in economic performance so at odds with postwar conventional wisdom? We begin by describing a novel tariff database we have constructed from largely original sources. We explore the impact of colonial rule and unequal treaties' on Asian tariffs, as well as the impact of geography and political economy on Latin American tariffs. Limits to tariff policy autonomy explain one third of the vast difference between the two regions' tariffs before 1914; differences in the extent and structure of internal markets as well as the world tariff environment explain much of the rest. We conclude with an agenda for the future.