Regression approaches for Approximate Bayesian Computation

This book chapter introduces regression approaches and regression adjustment for Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). Regression adjustment adjusts parameter values after rejection sampling in order to account for the imperfect match between simulations and observations. Imperfect match between simulations and observations can be more pronounced when there are many summary statistics, a phenomenon coined as the curse of dimensionality. Because of this imperfect match, credibility intervals obtained with regression approaches can be inflated compared to true credibility intervals. The chapter presents the main concepts underlying regression adjustment. A theorem that compares theoretical properties of posterior distributions obtained with and without regression adjustment is presented. Last, a practical application of regression adjustment in population genetics shows that regression adjustment shrinks posterior distributions compared to rejection approaches, which is a solution to avoid inflated credibility intervals.Comment: Book chapter, published in Handbook of Approximate Bayesian Computation 201

abc: an R package for Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC)

Many recent statistical applications involve inference under complex models, where it is computationally prohibitive to calculate likelihoods but possible to simulate data. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is devoted to these complex models because it bypasses evaluations of the likelihood function using comparisons between observed and simulated summary statistics. We introduce the R abc package that implements several ABC algorithms for performing parameter estimation and model selection. In particular, the recently developed non-linear heteroscedastic regression methods for ABC are implemented. The abc package also includes a cross-validation tool for measuring the accuracy of ABC estimates, and to calculate the misclassification probabilities when performing model selection. The main functions are accompanied by appropriate summary and plotting tools. Considering an example of demographic inference with population genetics data, we show the potential of the R package. R is already widely used in bioinformatics and several fields of biology. The R abc package will make the ABC algorithms available to the large number of R users. abc is a freely available R package under the GPL license, and it can be downloaded at http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/abc/index.html

Laguerre-Gaussian Modes and the Wigner Transform

Recent developments in laser physics have called renewed attention to Laguerre-Gaussian (LG) beams of paraxial light. In this paper we consider the corresponding LG modes for the two-dimensional harmonic oscillator, which appear in the transversal plane at the laser beam's waist. We see how they arise as Wigner transforms of Hermite-Gaussian modes, and we proceed to find a closed form for their own Wigner transforms, providing an alternative to the methods of Simon and Agarwal. Our main observation is that the Wigner transform intertwines the creation and annihilation operators for the two classes of modes.Comment: 12 pages, minor corrections; submitted, Journal of Modern Optic

Host jumps shaped the diversity of extant rust fungi (Pucciniales)

* The aim of this study was to determine the evolutionary time line for rust fungi and date key speciation events using a molecular clock. Evidence is provided that supports a contemporary view for a recent origin of rust fungi, with a common ancestor on a flowering plant. * Divergence times for > 20 genera of rust fungi were studied with Bayesian evolutionary analyses. A relaxed molecular clock was applied to ribosomal and mitochondrial genes, calibrated against estimated divergence times for the hosts of rust fungi, such as Acacia (Fabaceae), angiosperms and the cupressophytes. * Results showed that rust fungi shared a most recent common ancestor with a mean age between 113 and 115 million yr. This dates rust fungi to the Cretaceous period, which is much younger than previous estimations. Host jumps, whether taxonomically large or between host genera in the same family, most probably shaped the diversity of rust genera. Likewise, species diversified by host shifts (through coevolution) or via subsequent host jumps. This is in contrast to strict coevolution with their hosts. * Puccinia psidii was recovered in Sphaerophragmiaceae, a family distinct from Raveneliaceae, which were regarded as confamilial in previous studies

Pharmacovigilance in hospice/palliative care: Net effect of haloperidol for delirium

Introduction: Prescribing practice in hospice/palliative care is largely extrapolated from other areas of clinical practice, with few studies of net medication effects (benefits and harms) in hospice/palliative care to guide prescribing decisions. Hospice/palliative care patients differ in multiple ways from better studied participant groups, hence the applicability of studies in other participant groups is uncertain. Haloperidol, a butyrophenone derivative and dopamine antagonist, is commonly prescribed for nausea, vomiting, and delirium in hospice/palliative care. Its frequent use in delirium occurs despite little evidence of the effect of antipsychotics on the untreated course of delirium. The aim of this study was to examine the immediate and short-term clinical benefits and harms of haloperidol for delirium in hospice/palliative care patients. Method: A consecutive cohort of participants from 14 centers across four countries who had haloperidol commenced for delirium were recruited. Data were collected at three time points: baseline, 48 hours (clinical benefits), and day 10 (clinical harms). Investigators were also able to report clinical harms at any time up to 14 days after it was commenced. Results: Of the 119 participants included, the average dose was 2.1 mg per 24 hours; 42 of 106 (35.2%) reported benefit at 48 hours. Harm was reported in 14 of 119 (12%) at 10 days, the most frequent being somnolence (n=11) and urinary retention (n=6). Seven participants had their medication ceased due to harms (2 for somnolence and 2 for rigidity). Approximately half (55/119) were still being treated with haloperidol after 10 days. Conclusion: Overall, 1 in 3 participants gained net clinical benefit at 10 days. © Copyright 2013, Mary Ann Liebert, Inc. 2013

Change in Composition of the Anopheles Gambiae Complex and its Possible Implications for the Transmission of Malaria and Lymphatic Filariasis in North-Eastern Tanzania.

A dramatic decline in the incidence of malaria due to Plasmodium falciparum infection in coastal East Africa has recently been reported to be paralleled (or even preceded) by an equally dramatic decline in malaria vector density, despite absence of organized vector control. As part of investigations into possible causes for the change in vector population density, the present study analysed the Anopheles gambiae s.l. sibling species composition in north-eastern Tanzania. The study was in two parts. The first compared current species complex composition in freshly caught An. gambiae s.l. complex from three villages to the composition reported from previous studies carried out 2-4 decades ago in the same villages. The second took advantage of a sample of archived dried An. gambiae s.l. complex specimens collected regularly from a fourth study village since 2005. Both fresh and archived dried specimens were identified to sibling species of the An. gambiae s.l. complex by PCR. The same specimens were moreover examined for Plasmodium falciparum and Wuchereria bancrofti infection by PCR. As in earlier studies, An. gambiae s.s., Anopheles merus and Anopheles arabiensis were identified as sibling species found in the area. However, both study parts indicated a marked change in sibling species composition over time. From being by far the most abundant in the past An. gambiae s.s. was now the most rare, whereas An. arabiensis had changed from being the most rare to the most common. P. falciparum infection was rarely detected in the examined specimens (and only in An. arabiensis) whereas W. bancrofti infection was prevalent and detected in all three sibling species. The study indicates that a major shift in An. gambiae s.l. sibling species composition has taken place in the study area in recent years. Combined with the earlier reported decline in overall malaria vector density, the study suggests that this decline has been most marked for An. gambiae s.s., and least for An. arabiensis, leading to current predominance of the latter. Due to differences in biology and vectorial capacity of the An. gambiae s.l. complex the change in sibling species composition will have important implications for the epidemiology and control of malaria and lymphatic filariasis in the study area

Sympatric and allopatric Alcolapia soda lake cichlid species show similar levels of assortative mating

Characterising reproductive barriers such as mating preferences within rapid evolutionary radiations is crucial for understanding the early stages of speciation. Cichlid fishes are well-known for their adaptive radiations and capacity for rapid speciation and as such we investigate assortative mating among Alcolapia species; a recent (<10,000 years), small adaptive radiation, endemic to the extreme soda lakes, Magadi (one species) and Natron (three species), in East Africa. In seminatural aquarium conditions, we observed both courtship and mate choice (tested by microsatellite paternity analysis) to be significantly assortative among the three sympatric Natron species in a three-way choice experiment. This was also the case between allopatric species from Natron and Magadi, as found in a two-way choice experiment. However, the proportion of disassortative matings was substantial in both of these experiments, with hybrids comprising 29% of offspring in sympatric species and 11.4% in allopatric species comparisons. . Previous work suggests that the Natron/Magadi split might not be much older than the radiation within Natron, so the similar rate of hybridisation in the allopatric comparison is surprising and inconsistent with predictions of reinforcement theory, which predicts a faster rate of accumulation of premating isolation in sympatry. The relatively weak assortative mating in sympatry suggests that additional reproductive barriers, such as microhabitat preferences or spatial structuring may contribute to genetic isolation in nature

Effects of systematic asymmetric discounting on physician-patient interactions: a theoretical framework to explain poor compliance with lifestyle counseling

BACKGROUND: This study advances the use of a utility model to model physician-patient interactions from the perspectives of physicians and patients. PRESENTATION OF THE HYPOTHESIS: In cases involving acute care, patient counseling involves a relatively straightforward transfer of information from the physician to a patient. The patient has less information than the physician on the impact the condition and its treatment have on utility. In decisions involving lifestyle changes, the patient may have more information than the physician on his/her utility of consumption; moreover, differences in discounting future health may contribute significantly to differences between patients' preferences and physicians' recommendations. TESTING THE HYPOTHESIS: The expectation of differences in internal discount rate between patients and their physicians is discussed. IMPLICATIONS OF THE HYPOTHESIS: This utility model provides a conceptual basis for the finding that educational approaches alone may not effect changes in patient behavior and suggests other economic variables that could be targeted in the attempt to produce healthier behavior

Anthropometric Variables Accurately Predict Dual Energy X-Ray Absorptiometric-Derived Body Composition and Can Be Used to Screen for Diabetes

The current world-wide epidemic of obesity has stimulated interest in developing simple screening methods to identify individuals with undiagnosed diabetes mellitus type 2 (DM2) or metabolic syndrome (MS). Prior work utilizing body composition obtained by sophisticated technology has shown that the ratio of abdominal fat to total fat is a good predictor for DM2 or MS. The goals of this study were to determine how well simple anthropometric variables predict the fat mass distribution as determined by dual energy x-ray absorptometry (DXA), and whether these are useful to screen for DM2 or MS within a population. To accomplish this, the body composition of 341 females spanning a wide range of body mass indices and with a 23% prevalence of DM2 and MS was determined using DXA. Stepwise linear regression models incorporating age, weight, height, waistline, and hipline predicted DXA body composition (i.e., fat mass, trunk fat, fat free mass, and total mass) with good accuracy. Using body composition as independent variables, nominal logistic regression was then performed to estimate the probability of DM2. The results show good discrimination with the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) having an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.78. The anthropometrically-derived body composition equations derived from the full DXA study group were then applied to a group of 1153 female patients selected from a general endocrinology practice. Similar to the smaller study group, the ROC from logistical regression using body composition had an AUC of 0.81 for the detection of DM2. These results are superior to screening based on questionnaires and compare favorably with published data derived from invasive testing, e.g., hemoglobin A1c. This anthropometric approach offers promise for the development of simple, inexpensive, non-invasive screening to identify individuals with metabolic dysfunction within large populations