Predicting the Acceptance for High Beta-Carotene Maize: An Ex-Ante Estimation Method

This paper postulates a household decision model that takes into account the production consumption tradeoffs between traditional and biofortified seed. The objective is to understand the effect of these differing traits on the adoption decision when white maize is preferred by the consumers

Interpretation of Long-term Trade Projections: China's Role in Forecast Discrepancies and its Impact on Expectations for World Agricultural Trade

This report looks at the impact of China's grain projections on a global commodity baseline through a discussion of the 1998 FAPRI China corn outlook

Challenges of incorporating EU enlargement and CAP reform in the GOLD model framework

Published as part of the 89th Parma European Association of Agricultural Economists seminar “Modelling agricultural policies: state of the art and new challenges” proceedings. Further information may be found at http://www.lei.dlo.nl/EAAE/index.php3?page=en/content/past_seminars/past_seminars.htmThere cannot have been many circumstances that have challenged the modeller of agricultural markets to the extent that the developments in the EU in recent years have. The enlargement of the EU involving a large number of countries, with important agricultural sectors, many emerging from a volatile transition from centrally planning, raises many issues. Moreover this is occurring at a time of radical reform of the CAP, with the substantial decoupling of payments, an area that has attracted some research but provides little concrete guidance for sector level modellers. In this paper the challenges of each of these developments are outlined and their importance to the sector addressed. Some strategies in dealing with the issues and the impact on the model results are evaluated

Briefing Paper on the Demand for U.S. Commodity Exports and the Mississippi River: Past and Future

As part of the decision in evaluating the lock and dam upgrade on the Mississippi River, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) has contracted with various agricultural forecasting companies (most recently Sparks Companies, Inc.) to produce long range projections of agricultural exports and the implied demand for Mississippi River transportation services. The future demand for barge transportation services is a key component in evaluating the value of lock and dam upgrades. In this context, it is important to understand the volume of U.S. exports that utilize the river versus other modes of transportation

Chinese Synthetic Fiber Capacity and its Impacts on Natural Fiber Markets

This revision is dated May 7, 2004.Chinese synthetic fiber capacity is more than 100 times larger than it was just 30 years ago. It represents more capacity than exists in the United States and Western Europe combined and continues to expand each year to serve the growing Chinese textile industry. Historically, the Chinese government has provided support to the synthetic fiber industry and encouraged its expansion. At the same time, petroleum consumption in China continues to expand, and China is now the second largest petroleum consumer in the world. As a byproduct of petroleum distillation, the feeder materials for synthetic fiber production are readily available in the marketplace. In the presence of inter-fiber competition, the large amount of synthetic production capacity may have consequences for world cotton consumption and prices. With changes in Chinese government support to the synthetic fiber industry or other changes in the demand for synthetic capacity, there is the potential for indirect consequences on cotton fiber markets. Using a structural economic model of inter-fiber competition, such impacts are investigated

Targets and mandates : lessons learned from EU and US biofuels policy mechanisms

The United States and the European Union have taken different paths in the design and implementation of biofuel policy measures. In the European Union, a target has been set for the contribution of renewable energy in transport use, but policy implementation mechanisms are diverse and decentralized. Mandatory targets have been approved voluntarily by several EU Member States, but these mandatory targets are national initiatives and not an obligation from the European Union. The US biofuel policy has specified targets in absolute quantities rather than in percentages of use, as was done in the European Union. Because of this quantitative target and the fact that the implementation is through a mandate rather than a less-binding target, compliance is assured, but different implementation problems may arise that may not occur in the EU system. In this article, we provide an analytical discussion on lessons learned from the current and previous EU and US biofuel policy mechanisms and consider the possibilities, opportunities, and challenges for future policy development in both economies