Unemployment Insurance, Recall Expectations, And Unemployment Outcomes

This paper shows the importance of explicitly accounting for the possibility of recalls when analyzing the determinants of unemployment spell durations and the effects of unemployment insurance (UI) on unemployment outcomes in the United States. These issues are examined using a unique sample of UI recipients from Missouri and Pennsylvania covering unemployment spells in the 1979- 1981 period. We find that those expecting recall who are not recalled tend to have quite long unemployment spells. Furthermore, ex-ante temporary layoff spells (the spells of individuals' who initially expect to be recalled) may account for over 60 percent of the unemployment of UI recipients and appear to account for much more unemployment than ex-post temporary layoff spells (spells actually ending in recall). We estimate a competing risks model in which the finding of a new job and recall are treated as alternate routes of leaving unemployment. Our results using this approach show that the recall and new job exit probabilities have quite different time patterns and are often affected in opposite ways by explanatory variables. We also find that the probability of leaving unemployment (both through recalls and new job finding) increases greatly around the time that UI benefits lapse.

The Impact of the Potential Duration of Unemployment Benefits on the Duration of Unemployment

This paper uses two data sets to examine the impact of the potential duration of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits on the duration of unemployment and the time pattern of the escape rate from unemployment in the United States. The first part of the empirical work uses a large sample of household heads to examine differences in the unemployment spell distributions of UI recipients and nonrecipients. Sharp increases in the rare of escape from unemployment both through recalls and new job acceptances are apparent for UI recipients around the time when benefits are likely to lapse. The absence of such spikes in the escape rate from unemployment for nonrecipients strongly suggests that the potential duration of UI benefits affects firm recall policies and workers' willingness to start new jobs. The second part of our empirical work uses administrative data to examine the effects of the level and length of UT benefits on the escape rate from unemployment of UI recipients. The results indicate that a one week increase in potential benefit duration increases the average duration of the unemployment spells of UI recipients by 0,16 to 0.20 weeks. The estimates also imply that policies that extend the potential duration of benefits increase the mean duration of unemployment by substantially more than policies with the same predicted impact on the total UI budget that raise the level of benefits while holding potential duration constant.

Quantum Chinos Game: winning strategies through quantum fluctuations

We apply several quantization schemes to simple versions of the Chinos game. Classically, for two players with one coin each, there is a symmetric stable strategy that allows each player to win half of the times on average. A partial quantization of the game (semiclassical) allows us to find a winning strategy for the second player, but it is unstable w.r.t. the classical strategy. However, in a fully quantum version of the game we find a winning strategy for the first player that is optimal: the symmetric classical situation is broken at the quantum level.Comment: REVTEX4.b4 file, 3 table

Order-by-disorder in classical oscillator systems

We consider classical nonlinear oscillators on hexagonal lattices. When the coupling between the elements is repulsive, we observe coexisting states, each one with its own basin of attraction. These states differ by their degree of synchronization and by patterns of phase-locked motion. When disorder is introduced into the system by additive or multiplicative Gaussian noise, we observe a non-monotonic dependence of the degree of order in the system as a function of the noise intensity: intervals of noise intensity with low synchronization between the oscillators alternate with intervals where more oscillators are synchronized. In the latter case, noise induces a higher degree of order in the sense of a larger number of nearly coinciding phases. This order-by-disorder effect is reminiscent to the analogous phenomenon known from spin systems. Surprisingly, this non-monotonic evolution of the degree of order is found not only for a single interval of intermediate noise strength, but repeatedly as a function of increasing noise intensity. We observe noise-driven migration of oscillator phases in a rough potential landscape.Comment: 12 pages, 13 figures; comments are welcom

A bibliography on formal methods for system specification, design and validation

Literature on the specification, design, verification, testing, and evaluation of avionics systems was surveyed, providing 655 citations. Journal papers, conference papers, and technical reports are included. Manual and computer-based methods were employed. Keywords used in the online search are listed

Performability evaluation of the SIFT computer

Performability modeling and evaluation techniques are applied to the SIFT computer as it might operate in the computational evironment of an air transport mission. User-visible performance of the total system (SIFT plus its environment) is modeled as a random variable taking values in a set of levels of accomplishment. These levels are defined in terms of four attributes of total system behavior: safety, no change in mission profile, no operational penalties, and no economic process whose states describe the internal structure of SIFT as well as relavant conditions of the environment. Base model state trajectories are related to accomplishment levels via a capability function which is formulated in terms of a 3-level model hierarchy. Performability evaluation algorithms are then applied to determine the performability of the total system for various choices of computer and environment parameter values. Numerical results of those evaluations are presented and, in conclusion, some implications of this effort are discussed

Impact of Electrostatic Forces in Contact Mode Scanning Force Microscopy

In this $\ll$ contribution we address the question to what extent surface charges affect contact-mode scanning force microscopy measurements. % We therefore designed samples where we could generate localized electric field distributions near the surface as and when required. % We performed a series of experiments where we varied the load of the tip, the stiffness of the cantilever and the hardness of the sample surface. % It turned out that only for soft cantilevers could an electrostatic interaction between tip and surface charges be detected, irrespective of the surface properties, i.\,e. basically regardless its hardness. % We explain these results through a model based on the alteration of the tip-sample potential by the additional electric field between charged tip and surface charges

Mapping the magic numbers in binary Lennard-Jones clusters

Using a global optimization approach that directly searches for the composition of greatest stability, we have been able to find the particularly stable structures for binary Lennard-Jones clusters with up to 100 atoms for a range of Lennard-Jones parameters. In particular, we have shown that just having atoms of different size leads to a remarkable stabilization of polytetrahedral structures, including both polyicosahedral clusters and at larger sizes structures with disclination lines.Comment: 5 pages, 5 figure

Evolution of Supermassive Black Hole Binary and Acceleration of Jet Precession in Galactic Nuclei

Supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) is expected with the hierarchical galaxy formation model. Currently, physics processes dominating the evolution of a SMBHB are unclear. An interesting question is whether we could observationally determine the evolution of SMBHB and give constraints on the physical processes. Jet precession have been observed in many AGNs and generally attributed to disk precession. In this paper we calculate the time variation of jet precession and conclude that jet precession is accelerated in SMBHB systems but decelerated in others. The acceleration of jet precession $dP_{\rm pr} / dt$ is related to jet precession timescale $P_{\rm pr}$ and SMBHB evolution timescale $\tau_{\rm a}$, ${dP_{\rm pr} \over dt} \simeq - \Lambda {P_{\rm pr} \over \tau_{\rm a}}$. Our calculations based on the models for jet precession and SMBHB evolution show that $dP_{\rm pr} / dt$ can be as high as about $- 1.0$ with a typical value -0.2 and can be easily detected. We discussed the differential jet precession for NGC1275 observed in the literature. If the observed rapid acceleration of jet precession is true, the jet precession is due to the orbital motion of an unbound SMBHB with mass ratio $q\approx 0.76$. When jets precessed from the ancient bubbles to the currently active jets, the separation of SMBHB decrease from about $1.46 {\rm Kpc}$ to $0.80 {\rm Kpc}$ with an averaged decreasing velocity $da/dt \simeq - 1.54 \times 10^6 {\rm cm/s}$ and evolution timescale $\tau_{\rm a} \approx 7.5\times 10^7 {\rm yr}$. However, if we assume a steady jet precession for many cycles, the observations implies a hard SMBHB with mass ratio $q\approx 0.21$ and separation $a\approx 0.29 {\rm pc}$.Comment: 29 pages, no figure, Accepted for publication in Ap