Different Words, Same Song: Advice for Substantively Interpreting Duration Models

Copyright © American Political Science Association 2019. The use of duration models in political science continues to grow, more than a decade after Box-Steffensmeier and Jones (2004). However, several common misconceptions about the models still persist. To improve scholars\u27 use and interpretation of duration models, we point out that they are a type of regression model and therefore follow the same rules as other more commonly used regression models. In this article, we present four maxims as guidelines. We survey the various duration model interpretation strategies and group them into four categories, which is an important organizational exercise that does not appear elsewhere. We then discuss the strengths and weaknesses of these strategies, noting that all are correct from a technical perspective. However, some strategies make more sense than others for nontechnical reasons, which ultimately informs best practices

Conflict Dynamics in Militarized Interstate Disputes

My dissertation examines the determinants of interstate dispute dynamics. When making decisions, do state decision makers have an eye on the future as they perform cost-benefit analyses, or are they “blinded” by history? I claim that different disputes exhibit different types of dynamics. To the best of my knowledge, this claim has not been explicitly made before. I argue that the importance (or salience) of the issue being fought over has a significant influence on dynamics. Decisions regarding disputes over highly salient issues will be most affected by history, while decisions regarding less salient issues will be most affected by considerations about the future. I find empirical support for my argument using a unique methodological technique that can determine which conception of conflict dynamics is more helpful, and when. In doing so, I provide important insights into how we should think about militarized conflict, both interstate and intrastate

Within or Between Jobs? Determinants of Membership Volatility in the European Parliament, 1979-2014

10.1080/13572334.2018.1444628The Journal of Legislative Studies24190-10

Properly calculating estat phtest in the presence of stratified hazards

The Schoenfeld residual-based test for proportional-hazards violations in the Cox duration model is predicated on a key assumption pertaining to homoskedasticity in the residuals. This assumption is likely to be violated in the presence of stratified hazards, which is noted in estat phtest’s help file. We provide a wrapper command, stratph, that implements a straightforward modification to the residual-based diagnostic that corrects for the potential assumption violation. We use the stratified hazards example from the stcox help file to demonstrate the stratph command’s workings

mstatecox: A package for simulating transition probabilities from semiparametric multistate survival models

Multistate duration models are a valuable tool used in multiple fields to examine how subjects move through a series of discrete phases and stages. The models themselves may be fit using common statistical software, but their broader adoption has been limited because of a lack of software to substantively interpret their results. Transition probabilities are the common postestimation quantity for interpreting multistate duration model results. De Wreede, Fiocco, and Putter’s (2011, Journal of Statistical Software 38(7): 1–30) mstate package provides R with the functionality to estimate these quantities from semiparametric multistate models, yet no Stata equivalent exists for semiparametric models. We introduce a new set of Stata commands to meet this need. Our mstatecox suite calculates transition probabilities from semiparametric multistate duration models with simulation. It can accommodate any configuration of stages and also has the ability to accommodate time-interacted covariates. We demonstrate our package’s functionality using de Wreede, Fiocco, and Putter’s European Registry of Blood and Marrow Transplantation example dataset

Replication Data for 'Surviving Phases: Introducing Multi-state Survival Models'

Replication data for "Surviving Phases." See "README.txt" for readme

Screening Out Risk: IGOs, Member State Selection, and Interstate Conflict, 1951–2000

Do intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) screen out conflict-prone states? We argue that IGOs have incentives to guard against admitting new members that pose significant security risks. Using a data set based on state–IGO pairings, we find clear evidence of screening: As security risk increases, the probability of IGO membership declines. Our findings underscore the importance of accounting for possible selection bias when studying the effects of IGO membership on conflict. Indeed, the types of IGOs sometimes found to be most effective at promoting peace—namely highly institutionalized organizations and those with a security mandate—also prove particularly selective and sensitive to risk

Supplemental Material - Evaluating Conflict Dynamics: A Novel Empirical Approach to Stage Conceptions

<p>Supplemental Material for Evaluating Conflict Dynamics: A Novel Empirical Approach to Stage Conceptions by Benjamin T. Jones and Shawna K. Metzger in Journal of Conflict Resolution</p