Consumption-Wealth Comovement of the Wrong Sign

Economic theory predicts that an unexpected wealth windfall should increase consumption shortly after the windfall is received. We test this prediction using administrative records on over 40,000 401(k) accounts. Contrary to theory, we estimate a negative short-run marginal propensity to consume out of idiosyncratic 401(k) capital gains shocks. These results cannot be interpreted as standard intertemporal substitution, since the idiosyncratic returns that we study do not predict future returns. Instead, our findings imply that many investors are influenced by a positive feedback effect, through which higher recent returns encourage higher short-run saving. Like any other animal, 401(k) participants appear to increase behaviors that have been associated with high rewards in the past.

Defined Contribution Pensions: Plan Rules, Participant Decisions, and the Path of Least Resistance

We assess the impact on savings behavior of several different 401(k) plan features, including automatic enrollment, automatic cash distributions, employer matching provisions, eligibility requirements, investment options, and financial education. We also present new survey evidence on individual savings adequacy. Many of our conclusions are based on an analysis of micro-level administrative data on the 401(k) savings behavior of employees in several large corporations that implemented changes in their 401(k) plan design. Our analysis identifies a key behavioral principle that should partially guide the design of 401(k) plans: employees often follow 'the path of least resistance.' For better or for worse, plan administrators can manipulate the path of least resistance to powerfully influence the savings and investment choices of their employees.

The Federal Reserve’s Financial Crisis Response B: Lending & Credit Programs For Primary Dealers

Beginning in the summer 2007 the Federal Reserve (the Fed) deployed numerous conventional and innovative programs to address the credit crisis occurring in the wholesale lending markets that was beginning to affect the broader financial markets and threaten the economy at large. Two of those programs, the Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF) and the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF) were aimed at providing liquidity to primary dealers and required the Fed to rely on its authority under Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act. Section 13(3) is a Depression Era amendment that permits the Fed expanded powers in “unusual and exigent” circumstances, which it had not invoked in 76 years. We discuss the TSLF and the PDCF and the impact that these programs had on the Fed’s efforts to combat the brewing crisis, to provide much needed liquidity to the primary dealers, and to help revive the wholesale lending markets

Defined Contribution Pensions: Plan Rules, Participant Choices, and the Path of Least Resistance

We assess the impact on savings behavior of several different 401(k) plan features, including automatic enrollment, automatic cash distributions, employer matching provisions, eligibility requirements, investment options, and financial education. We also present new survey evidence on individual savings adequacy. Many of our conclusions are based on an analysis of micro-level administrative data on the 401(k) savings behavior of employees in several large corporations that implemented changes in their 401(k) plan design. Our analysis identifies a key behavioral principle that should partially guide the design of 401(k) plans: employees often follow “the path of least resistance.” For better or for worse, plan administrators can manipulate the path of least resistance to powerfully influence the savings and investment choices of their employees

Employee Investment Decisions about Company Stock

We study the relationship between past returns on a company’s stock and the level of investment in that stock by participants in that firm’s 401(k) plan. Several different decision points are of interest: the initial fraction of savings allocated to company stock, the changes in this fraction, and the reallocations of portfolio holdings across different asset classes. We find that high past returns on company stock do induce participants to allocate more of their new contributions to company stock. By contrast, high company stock have the opposite effect on reallocations of portfolio holdings: high returns produce portfolio shifts away from company stock and into other forms of equity. Overall, for company stock decisions, participants in our sample appear to be momentum investors when making contribution decisions, but they are contrarian investors when making trading decisions

Split or Steal? Cooperative Behavior When the Stakes Are Large

We examine cooperative behavior when large sums of money are at stake, using data from the television game show Golden Balls. At the end of each episode, contestants play a variant on the classic prisoner's dilemma for large and widely ranging stakes averaging over $20,000. Cooperation is surprisingly high for amounts that would normally be considered consequential but look tiny in their current context, what we call a “big peanuts” phenomenon. Utilizing the prior interaction among contestants, we find evidence that people have reciprocal preferences. Surprisingly, there is little support for conditional cooperation in our sample. That is, players do not seem to be more likely to cooperate if their opponent might be expected to cooperate. Further, we replicate earlier findings that males are less cooperative than females, but this gender effect reverses for older contestants because men become increasingly cooperative as their age increases

Measuring Risk Attitudes Controlling for Personality Traits*

Abstract: This study measures risk attitudes using two paid experiments: the Holt and Laury (2002) procedure and a variation of the game show Deal or No Deal. The participants also completed a series of personality questionnaires developed in the psychology literature including the risk domains of Weber, Blais, and Betz (2002). As in previous studies risk attitudes vary within subjects across elicitation methods. However, this variation can be explained by individual personality traits. Specifically, subjects behave as though the Holt and Laury task is an investment decision while the Deal or No Deal task is a gambling decision