Detection of density-dependent effects on caribou numbers from a series of census data

The main objective of this paper is to review and discuss the applicability of statistical procedures for the detection of density dependence based on a series of annual or multi-annual censuses. Regression models for which the statistic value under the null hypothesis of density independence is set a priori (slope = 0 or 1), generate spurious indications of density dependence. These tests are inappropriate because low sample sizes, high variance, and sampling error consistently bias the slope when applied to a finite number of population estimates. Two distribution-free tests are reviewed for which the rejection region for the hypothesis of density independence is derived intrinsically from the data through a computer-assisted permutation process. The "randomization test" gives the best results as the presence of a pronounced trend in the sequence of population estimates does not affect test results. The other non-parametric test, the "permutation test", gives reliable results only if the population fluctuates around a long-term equilibrium density. Both procedures are applied to three sets of data (Pukaskwa herd, Avalon herd, and a hypothetical example) that represent quite divergent population trajectories over time

The implications of environmental variability on caribou demography: theoretical considerations

Random environmental influences, such as snow cover, are widely regarded as an integral feature of caribou population dynamics. We conducted computer simulations to explore the ramifications of such stochastic variability for caribou demography. We devised 4 models with increasing levels of complexity: Model 1, density-independence under different levels of stochasticity and r; Model 2, non-linear effect of snow cover on r; Model 3, non-linear effect of snow cover on r and stochasticity as a function of population size; and Model 4, non-linear effect of snow cover on r, stochasticity as a funciton of population size, and density-dependence according to the logistic equation. The results of Model 1 indicated that nearly all caribou populations subject only to environmental vagaries experienced either extincition or irruption. Model 2 revealed that non-linear effect of snow cover depressed the realised r as a function of population size. Finally, Model 4 suggested long-term population as previously reported in literature, but with reduced chance of overshooting K under moderate to high environmental variability

Status of woodland caribou in Saskatchewan

Recent research has shown that woodland caribou in Saskatchewan exist as relatively separate populations within a metapopulation. Preliminary analyses show that individuals within all populations are selecting peatland habitat types (i.e., fens and bogs) throughout the year. Despite an absence of hunting, populations south of the Precambrian shield appear to be declining slowly, while those on the southern margin of the shield may be declining more rapidly. The apparent population decline is likely due to high rates of predation, especially on neonates. To maintain viable caribou populations in the region, forestry operations must be managed to maintain adequate amounts of preferred habitat types and connections among populations. At a coarse scale, preferred habitat is that which acts as a refuge from predators. Additional information is required to categorize specific peatland types, as data in the existing provincial forest inventory are inadequate for both selection analysis and management purposes. Ongoing research into revisions to the forest inventory and analyses of bog and fen types selected by caribou are needed to focus future management strategies

Seasonal distribution and population parameters of woodland caribou in central Manitoba: implications for forestry practices

Woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) in the boreal forest are believed threatened by human encroachment and associated disturbances such as resource exploration and extraction. We radiocollared and monitored fifteen female woodland caribou in central Manitoba, from 1995 to 1997, to obtain information on their population range, seasonal distribution and movements in relation to forestry concerns. The population ranged over 4600 km2 within a large peatland system and concentrated their activities in two areas for both the summer and winter seasons. Females were relatively more solitary during the summer and exhibited fidelity to specific calving and summering areas averaging 83.4 km2. Individual wintering locations varied between years and among individuals. Post-rut and pre-calving mixed-sex aggregations occurred on the southern portion of the herds range. Caribou from the northern part of the range utilized a traditional travel corridor moving as far as 65 km to access the aggregation areas and their summer or winter ranges. Adult survival during the study period averaged 0.90 (95% CI, 0.80-1.00). Survival of the 1995 cohort appeared to be high as indicated by the 0.65:1 calf-cow ratio, and 30 ± 7% calf composition of observed caribou in the autumn of 1995. The annual rate of change (A,) of 1.19 (95% CI, 1.02-1.36) from January to November of 1995 indicated rhat the population was increasing at that time

Mark-Recapture and Stochastic Population Models for Polar Bears of the High Arctic

We used mark-recapture data and population viability analysis (PVA) to estimate demographic parameters, abundance, and harvest risks for two adjacent populations of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) inhabiting Lancaster Sound and Norwegian Bay, Canada. Analyses were based on data from 1871 bears that were uniquely marked during the period 1972–97. Our best-fitting mark-recapture model specified sex and age effects on probabilities of survival and an effect of prior recapture (dependence) on capture probability. The most parsimonious solution in our analysis of survival was to assume the same rate for the Lancaster Sound and Norwegian Bay populations. Total (harvested) annual survival rates (mean ± 1 SE) for females included: 0.749 ± 0.105 (cubs), 0.879 ± 0.050 (ages 1–4), 0.936 ± 0.019 (ages 5– 20), and 0.758 ± 0.054 (ages 21+). Mean litter size was 1.69 ± 0.01 cubs for females of Lancaster Sound and 1.71 ± 0.08 cubs for females of Norwegian Bay. By age six, on average 0.31 ± 0.21 females of Lancaster Sound were producing litters (first age of reproduction was five years); however, females of Norwegian Bay did not reproduce until age seven or more. Total abundance (1995–97) averaged 2541 ± 391 bears in Lancaster Sound and 203 ± 44 bears in Norwegian Bay. The finite rate of increase (lambda) during the study period was estimated to be 1.001 ± 0.013 for bears of Lancaster Sound and 0.981 ± 0.027 for bears of Norwegian Bay. We incorporated demographic parameters into a harvest-explicit PVA to model short-term (15 yr) probabilities of overharvesting (i.e., 1997–2012). Our harvest simulations suggest that current levels of kill are approaching and perhaps exceeding the sustainable yield in both populations.Nous avons recouru aux données obtenues par marquage et recapture ainsi qu’aux analyses de viabilité de population pour estimer les paramètres démographiques, l’abondance et les risques liés à la récolte de deux populations adjacentes d’ours polaires (Ursus maritimus) évoluant dans le détroit de Lancaster et la baie Norwegian, au Canada. Les analyses reposaient sur les données relatives à 1 871 ours marqués de manière unique pendant la période allant de 1972 à 1997. Notre modèle de marquage et recapture le mieux ajusté tenait compte des effets du sexe et de l’âge sur les probabilités de survie, ainsi que de l’effet d’une recapture antérieure (dépendance) sur la probabilité de capture. La solution la plus parcimonieuse de notre analyse de survie consistait à assumer le même taux pour les populations du détroit de Lancaster et de la baie Norwegian. Les taux totaux de survie annuels (récoltés) (moyenne ± 1 SE) chez les femelles s’établissaient comme suit : 0,749 ± 0,105 (oursons), 0,879 ± 0,050 (âges 1-4), 0,936 ± 0,019 (âges 5-20), et 0,758 ± 0,054 (âges 21+). La grosseur moyenne des portées était de 1,69 ± 0,01 ourson dans le cas des femelles du détroit de Lancaster, et de 1,71 ± 0,08 ourson dans le cas des femelles de la baie Norwegian. Avant l’âge de six ans, en moyenne 0,31 ± 0,21 femelle du détroit de Lancaster produisait des portées (l’âge de reproduction le plus jeune était de cinq ans); cependant, les femelles de la baie Norwegian ne se reproduisaient pas avant l’âge de sept ans ou plus. L’abondance totale (1995-1997) atteignait en moyenne 2 541 ± 391 ours au détroit de Lancaster, et 203 ± 44 ours dans la baie Norwegian. Le taux fini d’augmentation (lambda) pendant la période d’étude était estimé à 1,001 ± 0,013 dans le cas des ours du détroit de Lancaster, et de 0,981 ± 0,027 dans le cas des ours de la baie Norwegian. Nous avons intégré les paramètres démographiques à une analyse de viabilité de population de récolte explicite pour modéliser les probabilités à court terme (15 ans) de surrécolte (i.e. 1997-2012). Nos simulations de récolte laissent croire que les taux d’ours tués approchent et peuvent même dépasser le rendement admissible des deux populations

Increasing plant group productivity through latent genetic variation for cooperation

Historic yield advances in the major crops have, to a large extent, been achieved by selection for improved productivity of groups of plant individuals such as high-density stands. Research suggests that such improved group productivity depends on “cooperative” traits (e.g., erect leaves, short stems) that—while beneficial to the group—decrease individual fitness under competition. This poses a problem for some traditional breeding approaches, especially when selection occurs at the level of individuals, because “selfish” traits will be selected for and reduce yield in high-density monocultures. One approach, therefore, has been to select individuals based on ideotypes with traits expected to promote group productivity. However, this approach is limited to architectural and physiological traits whose effects on growth and competition are relatively easy to anticipate. Here, we developed a general and simple method for the discovery of alleles promoting cooperation in plant stands. Our method is based on the game-theoretical premise that alleles increasing cooperation benefit the monoculture group but are disadvantageous to the individual when facing noncooperative neighbors. Testing the approach using the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana, we found a major effect locus where the rarer allele was associated with increased cooperation and productivity in high-density stands. The allele likely affects a pleiotropic gene, since we find that it is also associated with reduced root competition but higher resistance against disease. Thus, even though cooperation is considered evolutionarily unstable except under special circumstances, conflicting selective forces acting on a pleiotropic gene might maintain latent genetic variation for cooperation in nature. Such variation, once identified in a crop, could rapidly be leveraged in modern breeding programs and provide efficient routes to increase yields

Comorbidity, limitations in activities and pain in patients with osteoarthritis of the hip or knee

BACKGROUND: This study aims to contribute to the knowledge of the influence of comorbidity in OA. The objectives of the study were (i) to describe the prevalence of comorbidity and (ii) to describe the relationship between comorbidity (morbidity count, severity and the presence of specific diseases) and limitations in activities and pain in elderly patients with knee or hip OA using a comprehensive inventory of comorbidity. METHODS: A cross-sectional cohort study was conducted, in which 288 elderly patients with hip or knee osteoarthritis were included. Apart from demographic and clinical data, information about comorbidity, limitations in activities (WOMAC, SF-36 and timed walking test) and pain (VAS) was collected by questionnaires and tests. Statistical analyses included descriptive statistics, multivariate regression techniques, t-tests and one-way ANOVA. RESULTS: Almost all patients suffered from at least one comorbid disease, with cardiac diseases, diseases of eye, ear, nose, throat and larynx, other urogenital diseases and endocrine/metabolic diseases being most prevalent. Morbidity count and severity index were associated with more limitations in activities and with more pain. The presence of most of the moderate or severe diseases and obesity was associated with limitations in activities or with pain. CONCLUSION: The results of this study emphasize the importance of comorbidity in the rehabilitation of elderly patients with osteoarthritis of the hip or knee. Clinical practitioners should be aware of the relationship of comorbidity with functional problems in OA patients. (aut. ref.

TRY plant trait database - enhanced coverage and open access

Plant traits-the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants-determine how plants respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, and influence ecosystem properties and their benefits and detriments to people. Plant trait data thus represent the basis for a vast area of research spanning from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology, to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem and landscape management, restoration, biogeography and earth system modelling. Since its foundation in 2007, the TRY database of plant traits has grown continuously. It now provides unprecedented data coverage under an open access data policy and is the main plant trait database used by the research community worldwide. Increasingly, the TRY database also supports new frontiers of trait-based plant research, including the identification of data gaps and the subsequent mobilization or measurement of new data. To support this development, in this article we evaluate the extent of the trait data compiled in TRY and analyse emerging patterns of data coverage and representativeness. Best species coverage is achieved for categorical traits-almost complete coverage for 'plant growth form'. However, most traits relevant for ecology and vegetation modelling are characterized by continuous intraspecific variation and trait-environmental relationships. These traits have to be measured on individual plants in their respective environment. Despite unprecedented data coverage, we observe a humbling lack of completeness and representativeness of these continuous traits in many aspects. We, therefore, conclude that reducing data gaps and biases in the TRY database remains a key challenge and requires a coordinated approach to data mobilization and trait measurements. This can only be achieved in collaboration with other initiatives

TRY plant trait database - enhanced coverage and open access

Plant traits—the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants—determine how plants respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, and influence ecosystem properties and their benefits and detriments to people. Plant trait data thus represent the basis for a vast area of research spanning from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology, to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem and landscape management, restoration, biogeography and earth system modelling. Since its foundation in 2007, the TRY database of plant traits has grown continuously. It now provides unprecedented data coverage under an open access data policy and is the main plant trait database used by the research community worldwide. Increasingly, the TRY database also supports new frontiers of trait‐based plant research, including the identification of data gaps and the subsequent mobilization or measurement of new data. To support this development, in this article we evaluate the extent of the trait data compiled in TRY and analyse emerging patterns of data coverage and representativeness. Best species coverage is achieved for categorical traits—almost complete coverage for ‘plant growth form’. However, most traits relevant for ecology and vegetation modelling are characterized by continuous intraspecific variation and trait–environmental relationships. These traits have to be measured on individual plants in their respective environment. Despite unprecedented data coverage, we observe a humbling lack of completeness and representativeness of these continuous traits in many aspects. We, therefore, conclude that reducing data gaps and biases in the TRY database remains a key challenge and requires a coordinated approach to data mobilization and trait measurements. This can only be achieved in collaboration with other initiatives