Labour Outcomes of Graduates and Dropouts of High School and Post-secondary Education: Evidence for Canadian 24- to 26-year-olds in 2005

The purpose of this research is to estimate the impact of education, with a particular focus on education levels lower than a university diploma, on the labour market and social outcomes of the 24- to 26-year-old Canadians found in the fourth wave of the Youth in Transition Survey (YITS), conducted by Statistics Canada in 2006. We focus on differences between individuals who did not pursue college or university level degrees. We find that dropouts perform very poorly for most of the outcomes we analyse. Our most important result is that males who finish their high-school degree very late (after 19 years of age), perform, ceteris paribus, at many levels like dropouts. This suggests that policy makers should be taking a very close look at “second chance” or “adult education” programs across Canada.Education levels, high school and postsecondary dropouts, graduate and continuers, earnings, wage rates, employment, employment insurance and social assistance, volunteer activities, youth skills

Family Background, Family Income, Cognitive Tests Scores, Behavioural Scales and their Relationship with Post-secondary Education Participation: Evidence from the NLSCY

This paper exploits the panel feature of the Canadian National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth (NLSCY) and the large diversity of measures collected on the children ad their families over 6 cycles (1994-1995 to 2004-2005) to explain high school graduation and postsecondary education (PSE) choices of Canadian youth aged 18 to 21 observed in the most recent wave of the survey. In estimating how family background, family income, cognitive abilities, non-cognitive abilities and behavioural scores influence schooling choices they can be used as markers for identifying children at risk of not pursuing PSE. We focus on the impact of measures that are specific to the NLSCY which contains a host of scores on several dimensions such as the cognitive achievement of children (reading and math test scores); behavioural scores that measure the levels of hyperactivity, aggression, and pro-sociality; scores that measure self-esteem and self-control (non-cognitive abilities); and, family scores that measure the quality of parenting, family dysfunction, of neighbourhoods and schools quality. The math and reading scores are particularly interesting because they are computed from objective tests and are not based on any type of recall, as compared, for example, with the Youth in Transition Survey (YITS) data set. Despite the fact that income, as measured as the mean income ($2002) of the family during cycles 1 to 4, does not seem to be a key player for PSE attendance or high school graduation, the sign of its effect is generally positive and non-linear, increases for children in very low income will have a large effect that those with higher levels. More importantly, several variables that are characteristics of low-income families play a key role for schooling attainment. For example, being from a single-parent/guardian home with a poorly educated PMK and with less than (perceived) excellent/very good health or with high levels of hyperactivity for males or high levels of aggression for young teenage females will almost negate any chance of attaining the level of PSE.High school graduation, postsecondary education, schooling transition, gender, youth, longitudinal data

Gender Gap in Dropping out of High School: Evidence from the Canadian NLSCY Youth

This paper exploits the panel features of the Canadian National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth (NLSCY) and the large diversity of measures collected on the children and their families over 7 cycles (1994-1995 to 2006-2007) to explain high school graduation (dropout rates) of Canadian youth aged 18 to 23 observed in the most recent wave of the survey. We focus on the gap between females and males which in some provinces is high, particularly in Québec. The econometric approach uses a non-linear Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition technique to identify and quantify the separate contributions of group differences in measurable characteristics (youth attributes and family endowments) to the gender gap in high school graduation rates. We find that the traditional barriers to high school graduation, linked to poverty, are very detrimental for males in Québec. However, we also find that the male-female gap across Canada is very partially explained by differences in endowments such as reading or maths skills in school. Finally, as in other recent studies, our results show that parental expectations about educational attainment are predictors of high school graduation. Public policy approaches for the reduction of the male-female gap are proposed. More radical measures and some experimental approaches (pilot projects) should be adopted in Québec to decrease rapidly the dropout rates and increase high school graduation rates by the age of 18.Longitudinal data, high school dropouts, youth attributes, family endowments, gender gap, non-linear Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition

The Québec’s Experiment of $5 per Day per Child Childcare Policy and Mother’s Labour Supply: Evidence Based on the Five Cycles of the NLSCY

On September 1st, 1997, a new childcare policy was initiated by the provincial government of Quebec, the second most populous province in Canada. Childcare services licensed by the Ministry of the Family (not-for-profit centres, family-based childcare, and for-profit centres under the agreement) began offering day care spaces at the reduced parental contribution of $5 per day per child for children aged 4 years. In successive years, the government reduced the age requirement and engaged in a plan to create new childcare facilities and pay for the cost of additional$5 per day childcare spaces. By September 2000, the low-fee policy applied to all children aged 0 to 59 months (not in kindergarten) and the number of partly subsidized spaces increased from 77,000 in 1998 to 163,000 spaces, totally subsidized by the end of year 2002, while the number of eligible children, zero to four years old, declined from 428,000 to 369,000 over the same period. Using data drawn from Statistics Canada’s National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth (NLSCY), this study attempts to estimate the effect of the policy on the labour supply behavior of Quebec mothers with pre-school children, aged from 0 to 5 years old. The analysis examines the impact of the policy on the following outcomes: labour force participation and annual number of weeks at work. A non-experimental evaluation framework based on multiple pre- and post-treatment periods is used to estimate the effect of the childcare regime. The econometric results support the hypothesis that the childcare policy, together with the transformation of public kindergarten from a part-time to a full-time basis, had a large and statistically significant impact on the labour supply of Quebec’s mothers with pre-school children. The estimates also suggest, though less convincingly, that the size of the impact increased concurrently with the positive growth in the number of low-fee spaces. Le 1er septembre 1997, le gouvernement du Québec instaurait une nouvelle politique de subvention aux services de garde. Les milieux de garde reconnus par le ministère de la Famille et de l’Enfance ont commencé à offrir des places à contribution réduite (5 $/jour) pour les enfants qui avaient atteint l'âge de 4 ans au 30 septembre. En outre, le gouvernement s’engageait à réduire progressivement (chaque année) l’âge d’admissibilité de ces places et à augmenter leur nombre dans le réseau des services de garde subventionnés. En septembre 2000, la politique s’est appliquée à tous les enfants âgés de 0 à 59 mois (non en maternelle) et le nombre de places partiellement subventionnées est passé de 77 000 en 1998 à 163 000 à la fin de 2002, alors que le nombre d’enfants âgés de 0 à 4 ans a baissé de 428 000 à 369 000 sur la même période. Cette étude, qui s’appuie sur les données de l’Enquête nationale longitudinale sur les enfants et les jeunes, conduite par Statistique Canada, estime les effets de la politique sur l’offre de travail des mères québécoises qui ont au moins un enfant âgé entre 0 et 5 ans. Deux indicateurs du comportement de travail sont analysés, soit la participation au marché du travail et le nombre annuel de semaines travaillées. L’analyse adopte une approche « quasi expérimentale », c’est-à-dire que les différences entre les mères québécoises (groupe traitement) et les mères des autres provinces (groupe de contrôle) sont comparées avant et après la mise en place du régime de subventions aux services de garde. Nos résultats sont conformes à l’hypothèse que le programme de soutien aux services de garde mis en place par le gouvernement du Québec, simultanément avec la maternelle cinq ans gratuite et à temps plein, ont eu un impact important et statistiquement significatif sur l’offre de travail des mères avec des enfants de 5 ans ou moins. Les résultats économétriques soutiennent aussi, quoique de façon moins convaincante, que l’ampleur de l’effet a augmenté simultanément avec l’augmentation du nombre de places à contribution réduite de 1998 à 2002.mother’s labour supply, preschool children, childcare subsidy, quasi-natural experiment, offre de travail des mères, enfants d’âge préscolaire, politique de garde, expérience quasi naturelle

The Effect of Childcare and Early Education Arrangements on Developmental Outcomes of Young Children

This study investigates the relationship between child care arrangements and developmental outcomes of young children using data from Cycle 1 of the Canadian National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth. Models of the determinants of Motor and Social Development (MSD) scores for children aged 0-47 months, and of the Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test assessment scores (PPVT-R) for children aged 4-5 years are estimated controlling for a variety of non-parental childcare and early education characteristics. The results suggest that infant-toddler non-parental care arrangements have insignificant or negligible impacts on developmental outcomes (MSD). For preschoolers, modes of care and early education do not, on average, influence cognitive development (PPVT). The results of fixed effect estimates for a sample of siblings aged 0-47 months confirm the preceding conclusion. The analysis is repeated to identify the determinants of the probability the child's MSD (PPVT) score is in the bottom part of the distribution of MSD (PPVT) scores and the conclusions are similar. Cette étude explore la relation entre les modalités des services de garde et des indicateurs mesurés du développement des jeunes enfants à l'aide des données du cycle 1 de l'Enquête longitudinale nationale sur les enfants et les jeunes canadiens. La modélisation économétrique analyse les déterminants des scores de développement social et moteur (DSM) des enfants de 0 à 47 mois ainsi que les scores à un test de vocabulaire (EVIP-R) administré aux enfants de 4-5 ans en prenant en considération différentes caractéristiques des services de garde et d'éducation des enfants. Les résultats suggèrent que pour les nouveaux-nés et les enfants en bas âge les modalités de garde non parentale ont des effets non statistiquement significatifs ou négligeables sur le DSM. Pour les enfants d'âge préscolaire, les modes de garde ou d'éducation préscolaire n'ont pas en moyenne d'effets sur le développement cognitif (EVIP). L'estimation d'un modèle à effets fixes pour un sous-échantillon d'enfants composé de frères et de soeurs confirme la conclusion précédente. L'analyse est répétée pour identifier les déterminants de la probabilité qu'un enfant soit observé avec un score le classant dans la partie inférieure de la distribution des scores (DSM et EVIP), et les conclusions sont similaires.Childcare, early education, developmental outcomes, public policy.

Work Schedules, Job Characteristics, Parenting Practices and Children's Outcomes

The goal of this research was to find evidence for serious negative effects of employment conditions on different measures of child outcomes taking into account the family background characteristics and family income. In particular, we wanted to know whether the mother's job characteristics (working full-time or part-time, being in a job with unusual schedules, working in a low skill job and job loss) could tax a child's assessed outcomes in an important way. It is asked whether job characteristics have effects on young children's measurable outcomes (scores on developmental-assessment instruments) and on parenting practices. The analysis uses data from cycle 1 of the Canadian National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth (NLSCY) to examine these relationships. Independently, we asked if these working conditions influence parenting practices, disregarding the potential role of parenting style on children'outcomes. In a few cases, we did find negative effects, but they could not be deemed serious given their size. The most important dimension seemed to be time, as children with full-time working mothers, whatever their schedule or occupation, regularly had lower scores on behavioural outcomes than part-time working mothers and non working mothers. For the others outcomes working conditions do not seem to be matter much. The results also confirm conclusions on income effects recently provided in American studies. The effects are stronger for the poor then they subside for the higher classes of income providing evidence for the importance of achieving a certain minimum standard of living for school readiness and in order to perform reasonably well in school. The estimated income effects imply that non-monetary factors could play a bigger role than income in affecting child development. Cette étude examine les effets du contexte familial et des conditions d'emploi des parents sur différents indicateurs mesurant le développement des enfants ainsi que sur les techniques parentales. L'analyse repose sur les données du cycle 1 de l'Enquête longitudinale nationale sur les enfants et les jeunes. L'objectif poursuivi fut de vérifier la présence d'effets négatifs sur les enfants associés aux conditions d'emploi en tenant compte tant des caractéristiques familiales et du revenu familial. Les indicateurs de développement retenus mesurent le développement cognitif des enfants (des 4-5 ans), différents comportements positifs et négatifs (pour les 4-11 ans) ainsi que le rendement à l'école (pour les enfants en première année et plus). Les conditions d'emploi des mères examinés sont le travail à temps plein et à temps partiel, les différents types d'horaire de travail, les niveaux de qualification des emplois occupés ainsi que la perte d'un emploi. De façon indépendante, les effets des conditions d'emploi sur les techniques parentales sont aussi analysés. Quelques conditions d'emploi ont des effets négatifs, mais leur ampleur est faible. La dimension la plus importante est le temps dans la mesure où les enfants dont les mères travaillent à temps plein selon des horaires a-typique, peut importe l'occupation, ont des scores de comportements un peu plus bas que ceux avec des mères travaillant à temps partiel ou ne travaillant pas. Alors que pour les autres indicateurs les conditions de travail ne semblent pas avoir, en général, d'importance. Les résultats quant aux effets de niveau de revenu familial vont dans le sens de ceux obtenus dans les études américaines récentes. Ces effets sont importants pour les familles les plus pauvres puis décroissent pour les classes de revenu plus élevées. Ceci soutient l'idée de la nécessité pour les familles d'atteindre un certain seuil de revenu afin que soient réunis les conditions favorables au développement des enfants et de leur réussite à l'école. Les effets de revenus impliquent que les facteurs non monétaires jouent un plus grand rôle que le revenu dans le développement des enfants.Mother's working hours, attributes of occupation, job loss, family income, child outcomes

Low-fee ($5/day/child) Regulated Childcare Policy and the Labor Supply of Mothers with Young Children: a Natural Experiment from Canada

On September 1st, 1997, a new childcare policy was initiated by the provincial government of Quebec, the second most populous province in Canada. Childcare services licensed by the Ministry of the Family (not-for-profit centres, family-based childcare, and for-profit centres under the agreement) began offering day care spaces at the reduced parental contribution of $5 per day child for children aged 4 years. In successive years, the government reduced the age requirement and engaged in a plan to create new childcare facilities and pay for the cost of additional$5 per day childcare spaces. By September 2000, the low-fee policy applied to all children aged 0 to 59 months (not in kindergarten) and the number of partly subsidized spaces increased from 77,000 in 1998 to 163,000 spaces, totally subsidized by the end of year 2002, while the number of eligible children, zero to four years old, declined from 428,000 to 369,000 over the same period. Using annual data (1993 to 2002), drawn from Statistics Canada's Suvey of Labour and Income Dynamics (SLID), this study attempts to estimate the effect of the policy on the labor supply behavior of Quebec mothers with pre-school children, aged from 0 to 5 years old. The analysis examines the impact of the policy on the following outcomes: labor force participation, annual number of weeks and hours at work, annual earned income and whether the job was full-time for mothers who declared having a job during the reference year. A non-experimental evaluation framework based on multiple pre- and post- treatment periods is used to estimate the effect of the childcare regime. The econometrics results support the hypothesis that the childcare policy, together with the transformation of public kindergarten from a part-time to a full-time basis, had a large and statistically significant impact on the labor supply of Quebec's mothers with pre-school children. The estimates also suggest, though less convincingly, that the size of the impact increased concurrently with the positive growth in the number of low-fee spaces.Mother's labor supply, preschool children, childcare subsidy, natural experiment

Provincial Returns to Education for 21 to 35 year-olds: Results from the 1991-2006 Canadian Analytic Censuses Files

This paper examines the evolution of the returns to education and experience from 1990 to 2005 in Canada and across the provinces. The focus is on the earnings of young adults, age 21 to 35 at the times of the Censuses, classified by very detailed education groups, age and gender. Returns to higher education are very different across provinces and are particularly high in the western part of the nation. Over time, they are quite stable, but they are increasing for females in 2005 relative to 2000 in particular Bachelor’s degree and higher degrees. This is surprising given the very important increase in the supply of well educated females since 1991. These returns can explain partially why so many young women turned to higher education over time. It is also surprising that males have not followed suit, given that the returns are just as high for them as for women. Yet, the returns for university education are much higher than the returns for college or CEGE. Also, returns for trade degrees are much higher for males than for females. The male-female gap in higher education will certainly help to reduce the wage gap between genders, however, public policy must be concerned by the difference between male and female participation in higher education.Human Capital, Wage Differentials, Returns to Education, Young Workers, Canadian Provinces, Gender

Childcare Policy and Cognitive Outcomes of Children: Results from a Large Scale Quasi-Experiment on Universal Childcare in Canada

Effects of a low-fee universal childcare policy, initiated in Québec, the second most populous province in Canada, on the cognitive development of preschool children are estimated with a sample of 4- and 5-year-olds (N=8,875; N=17,154). In 1997, licensed and regulated providers of childcare services began offering daycare spaces at the reduced fee of $5 per day per child for children aged 4. By 2000, the low-fee policy applied to all children aged 0 to 59 months (not in kindergarten). The study uses 6 cycles of biennial data drawn from Statistics Canada's National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth (1994-2004) and quasi-experimental estimation methods to provide evidence that the policy had substantial negative effects on preschool children's Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test scores. The negative effects are found to be stronger for children with mothers who have lower levels of education.Preschool children, school readiness, childcare, kindergarten, treatment effects, natural experiment

The Effects of School Quality and Family Functioning on Youth Math Scores: a Canadian Longitudinal Analysis

This paper tries to disentangle the relative importance of family and school inputs on a child's cognitive achievement as measured by her percentile score on a mathematics test. We replicate a study by Todd and Wolpin (2007) in the United States with Canadian data. In contrast to their work that uses state-level indicators of school quality, we estimate our model with data from Statistics Canada's National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth (NLSCY) which provides micro-level information on the family and school history of the child. The sample used for the analysis is based on the 7- to 15-year-old longitudinal children who have completed at least two consecutive math tests. As in Todd and Wolpin, we conclude that cognitive outcomes are determined by current and past family inputs. Contrary to them, who find no impact of school inputs, we find that the quality of schools has a positive impact on achievement in mathematics.Math scores, human capital, child development, school and family inputs, panel data