The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010–19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk–outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01–4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0–116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3–48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1–45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60–3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8–54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36–1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5–41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6–28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8–25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9–42·8] and 33·3% [25·8–42·0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010–19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND: Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. METHODS: The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk–outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. FINDINGS: Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01–4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0–116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3–48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1–45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60–3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8–54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36–1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5–41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6–28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8–25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9–42·8] and 33·3% [25·8–42·0]). INTERPRETATION: The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden

Socio-economic and spatial inequalities in animal sources of iron-rich foods consumption among children 6-23 months old in Ethiopia: A decomposition analysis

Iron deficiency anaemia is the most common type of anaemia in young children which can lead to long-term health consequences such as reduced immunity, impaired cognitive development, and school performance. As children experience rapid growth, they require a greater supply of iron from iron-rich foods to support their development. In addition to the low consumption of iron-rich foods in low- and lower-middle-income countries, there are also regional and socio-economic disparities. This study aimed to assess contributing factors of wealth-related inequality and geographic variations in animal sources of iron-rich food consumption among children aged 6-23 months in Ethiopia. We used data from the Ethiopian Mini Demographic and Health Surveys (EMDHS) 2019, a national survey conducted using stratified sampling techniques. A total of 1,461 children of age 6-23 months were included in the study. Iron-rich animal sources of food consumption were regarded when parents/caregivers reported that a child took at least one of the four food items identified as iron-rich food: 1) eggs, 2) meat (beef, lamb, goat, or chicken), 3) fresh or dried fish or shellfish, and 4) organs meat such as heart or liver. Concentration indices and curves were used to assess wealth-related inequalities. A Wagstaff decomposition analysis was applied to identify the contributing factors for wealth-related inequality of iron-rich animal source foods consumption. We estimated the elasticity of wealth-related inequality for a percentage change in socioeconomic variables. A spatial analysis was then used to map the significant cluster areas of iron-rich animal source food consumption among children in Ethiopia. The proportion of children who were given iron-rich animal-source foods in Ethiopia is 24.2% (95% CI: 22.1%, 26.5%), with figures ranging from 0.3% in Dire Dawa to 37.8% in the Oromia region. Children in poor households disproportionately consume less iron-rich animal-source foods than those in wealthy households, leading to a pro-rich wealth concentration index (C) = 0.25 (95% CI: 0.12, 0.37). The decomposition model explained approximately 70% of the estimated socio-economic inequality. About 21% of the wealth-related inequalities in iron-rich animal source food consumption in children can be explained by having primary or above education status of women. Mother's antenatal care (ANC) visits (14.6%), living in the large central and metropolitan regions (12%), household wealth index (10%), and being in the older age group (12-23 months) (2.4%) also contribute to the wealth-related inequalities. Regions such as Afar, Eastern parts of Amhara, and Somali were geographic clusters with low iron-rich animal source food consumption. There is a low level of iron-rich animal source food consumption among children, and it is disproportionately concentrated in the rich households (pro-rich distribution) in Ethiopia. Maternal educational status, having ANC visits, children being in the older age group (12-23 months), and living in large central and metropolitan regions were significant contributors to these wealth-related inequalities in iron-rich animal source foods consumption. Certain parts of Ethiopia such as, Afar, Eastern parts of Amhara, and Somali should be considered priority areas for nutritional interventions to increase children's iron-rich animal source foods consumption.Daniel G. Belay, Molla M. Wassie, Melaku Birhanu Alemu, Mehari Woldemariam Merid, Richard Norman, Gizachew A. Tessem

DNA Methylation in Newborns and Maternal Smoking in Pregnancy: Genome-wide Consortium Meta-analysis

Epigenetic modifications, including DNA methylation, represent a potential mechanism for environmental impacts on human disease. Maternal smoking in pregnancy remains an important public health problem that impacts child health in a myriad of ways and has potential lifelong consequences. The mechanisms are largely unknown, but epigenetics most likely plays a role. We formed the Pregnancy And Childhood Epigenetics (PACE) consortium and meta-analyzed, across 13 cohorts (n = 6,685), the association between maternal smoking in pregnancy and newborn blood DNA methylation at over 450,000 CpG sites (CpGs) by using the Illumina 450K BeadChip. Over 6,000 CpGs were differentially methylated in relation to maternal smoking at genome-wide statistical significance (false discovery rate, 5%), including 2,965 CpGs corresponding to 2,017 genes not previously related to smoking and methylation in either newborns or adults. Several genes are relevant to diseases that can be caused by maternal smoking (e.g., orofacial clefts and asthma) or adult smoking (e.g., certain cancers). A number of differentially methylated CpGs were associated with gene expression. We observed enrichment in pathw