A GLOBAL MODEL OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON TIMBER MARKETS

Several papers have now estimated the impact of climate change on national timber markets, but few studies have measured impacts globally. Further, the literature on impacts has focused heavily on changes in productivity and has not integrated movements of biomes as well. Here, a dynamic model of ecological change and economic change is developed to capture the impact of climate change on world timber markets. Climate change is predicted to increase global timber production as producers in low-mid latitude forests react quickly with more productive short-rotation plantations, driving down timber prices. Producers in mid-high latitude forests, in contrast, are likely to be hurt by the lower prices, dieback, and slower productivity increases because of long-rotation species. Consumers in all regions benefit from the lower prices, and the overall impacts of climate change in timber markets are expected to be beneficial, increasing welfare in those markets from 2% to 8%.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Histoire des " Big Five " : OCEAN des cinq grands facteurs de la personnalité. Introduction du Big Five Inventory français ou BFI-FR

International audienceLa description de la personnalité a été conçue à partir d'une variété de points de vue théoriques et à différents niveaux d'abstraction. Dans l'étude de la personnalité, l'unité la plus fréquemment utilisée pour mesurer les différences individuelles a été le trait. Un consensus semble se dégager actuellement sur une taxonomie générale des traits de la personnalité, les cinq facteurs de la personnalité, connus sous le nom des " Big Five ", expression introduite par Goldberg. Le but de cet article est de resituer l'élaboration de la version originale du Big Five Inventory (BFI) de John, Donahue et Kentle (1991) dans son histoire, et parmi les autres tests disponibles le " TDA ou trait descriptive adjective " de Goldberg et le " NEO PI-R ou NEO personality inventory revised " de Costa et McCrae. La revue reprend les différents stades de conceptualisation des catégories qui furent élaborées à partir d'une sélection d'adjectifs de dictionnaires permettant de différencier un individu d'un autre. Seuls les traits seront utilisés pour l'élaboration des trois tests mentionnés. Les " Big Five " retrouvés à partir d'analyses factorielles peuvent se résumer en cinq facteurs réplicables connus sous le nom de OCEAN ou CANOE de la personnalité, moyen mnémotechnique pour E (Extraversion, Énergie, Enthousiasme) ; A (Agréabilité, Altruisme, Affection) ; C (Conscience, Contrôle, Contrainte) ; N (Émotions Négatives, Névrosisme, Nervosité) ; O (Ouverture, Originalité, Ouverture d'esprit), ordre établi par les auteurs du BFI. La structure des " Big Five " regroupe à un haut niveau d'abstraction les points communs de la plupart des systèmes existant sur la description de la personnalité et met à disposition un modèle descriptif intégré pour des recherches sur la personnalité

A Ricardian Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on European Agriculture

This research estimates the impact of climate on European agriculture using a continental scale Ricardian analysis. Data on climate, soil, geography and regional socio-economic characteristics were matched for 37 612 individual farms across the EU-15. Farmland values across Europe are sensitive to climate. Even with the adaptation captured by the Ricardian technique, farms in Southern Europe are predicted to suffer sizeable losses (8% -13% per degree Celsius) from warming. In contrast, agriculture in the rest of Europe is likely to see only mixed impacts. Increases (decreases) in rain will increase (decrease) average farm values by 3% per centiliter of precipitation. Aggregate impacts by 2100 vary depending on the climate model scenario from a loss of 8% in a mild scenario to a loss of 44% in a harsh scenario

Usefulness of the bidirectional Glenn procedure as staged reconstruction for the functional single ventricle

The bidirectional Glenn operation may be particularly useful as an intermediate procedure before Fontan correction in high-risk patients. From October 1989 through February 1992, 50 patients 1 to 60 months old (median 12) have undergone a bidirectional Glenn operation. Diagnoses included hypoplastic left heart syndrome in 21 patients, pulmonary atresia with intact ventricular septum in 10, tricuspid valve atresia in 9, other complex univentricular heart defects in 9, and Ebstein's anomaly in 1. Mean pulmonary vascular resistance was 2.2 +/- 0.2 Wood U (range 0.5 to 7.3) and mean pulmonary artery area Nakata index was 318 +/- mm2/m2 (range 80 to 821). Additional procedures were performed in 17 patients, including pulmonary artery reconstruction in 15 (29%) and bilateral caval anastomoses in 5 (10%). There were 4 hospital deaths (8%). Two deaths resulted from myocardial infarction in patients with pulmonary atresia with intact ventricular septum and sinusoids and 1 from severe pulmonary vascular disease in a patient with hypoplastic left heart syndrome. There was 1 late death from pneumonia. Actuarial survival is 92 +/- 4% at 1 month and beyond, with a mean follow-up of 13.4 +/- 1 months. Risk factor analysis showed that pulmonary vascular resistance >3 Wood U and pulmonary artery distortion were associated with increased mortality. Twelve patients have undergone a Fontan procedure at a mean duration after bidirectional Glenn of 18 months with 1 death (8%). The bidirectional Glenn procedure provides excellent palliation in high-risk patients and appears useful as a staging procedure before Fontan correction.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/30841/1/0000503.pd

Association of Apremilast With Vascular Inflammation and Cardiometabolic Function in Patients With Psoriasis: The VIP-A Phase 4, Open-label, Nonrandomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE: Psoriasis is an inflammatory condition associated with metabolic and cardiovascular disease. Apremilast, a phosphodiesterase 4 inhibitor, is commonly used for psoriasis and can cause weight loss. OBJECTIVE: To determine the association between apremilast and aortic vascular inflammation as assessed by 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (FDG-PET/CT), cardiometabolic markers (primary outcomes at week 16), and abdominal fat composition. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A single-arm, open-label, interventional, nonrandomized clinical trial in which the imaging and laboratory outcomes were measured by an investigator who was blinded to time was conducted between April 11, 2017, and August 17, 2021, at 7 dermatology sites in the United States. A total of 101 patients with moderate to severe psoriasis were screened, 70 enrolled, 60 completed week 16, and 39 completed week 52. INTERVENTION: Apremilast, 30 mg, twice daily. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Aortic vascular inflammation (measured by FDG-PET/CT), 68 cardiometabolic biomarkers, and abdominal fat composition (measured by CT) at week 16 and week 52 compared with baseline. RESULTS: The mean (SD) age of the 70 patients was 47.5 (14.6) years, 54 were male (77.1%), 4 were Black (5.7%), and 58 were White (82.9%). There was no change in aortic vascular inflammation at week 16 (target to background ratio, -0.02; 95% CI, -0.08 to 0.05; P = .61) or week 52 (target to background ratio, -0.07; 95% CI, -0.15 to 0.01; P = .09) compared with baseline. At week 16, potentially beneficial decreases in interleukin 1b, valine, leucine, isoleucine, fetuin A, and branched-chain amino acids were observed. At week 52 compared with baseline, potentially beneficial decreases in ferritin, β-hydroxybutyrate, acetone, and ketone bodies, with an increase in apolipoprotein A-1, were observed, but there was a reduction in cholesterol efflux. There was an approximately 5% to 6% reduction in subcutaneous and visceral adiposity at week 16 that was maintained at week 52. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The findings of this nonrandomized clinical trial suggest that apremilast has a neutral association with aortic vascular inflammation, variable but generally beneficial associations with a subset of cardiometabolic biomarkers, and associations with reductions in visceral and subcutaneous fat, indicating that the drug may have an overall benefit for patients with cardiometabolic disease and psoriasis. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03082729