General Equilibrium Effects in the South African Maize Market: International Trade Simulations

Following deregulation in the 1990's the South African maize producing industry has been suffering a gradual decline. Current low prices suggest that this trend may continue or worsen. This paper discusses the results from a static general equilibrium model for the South African economy to evaluate the effects on the economy. The analysis covers summer cereals producing agricultural regions, production in other sectors in the economy, commodity markets and the economy at large. Additionally, the effects on factors, households and the government are analysed. The first set of experiments is aimed to evaluate the effects of an increase in import tariffs on summer cereals. The results indicate that under normal conditions South Africa will experience little effect for even relatively large increases in the tariff rate, which follows from the fact that South Africa does not currently import sizeable quantities of maize. The second set of experiments evaluate the effects of a change in world prices of summer cereals, under the presumption that a reduction in levels of producer support in developed countries may lead to increased world prices. The results indicate that this terms-of-trade improvement does not necessarily lead to benefits to all in the economy. Benefits to summer cereals producers are largely offset by losses in other sectors of the economy, for example producers of livestock, though the overall effect is still positive.International Relations/Trade,

The Impact of a Higher Fuel Levy on the Western Cape

The Western Cape Provincial Government's proposal to introduce a provincial fuel levy within a band of 10 and 50 cents per litre raises concerns on the impact this may have on the economy, especially at a time of high international oil prices. This study reports the results of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis of the impact of higher tax rates on petroleum products on the economy, with specific focus on prices, employment and household expenditure. The results show that increasing the tax rate on petroleum products results in higher petroleum prices, which again put upward pressure on intermediate input costs. Households in the Western Cape will experience a decrease in per capita expenditure, as unemployment increases and returns to factors employed decrease. The impact is however very small. The impacts on agricultural activities differ among regions, but the net effect is a contraction in agricultural output.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Unstable Computing

Not Reviewe

Computing Instability

A workshop and zine by MELT commissioned by counter-n with texts, experiments and images by Jose Cojal Gonzalez; Özgün Eylül İşcen; Shintaro Miyazaki; Pedro Oliveira; Selena Savić and MELT (Loren Britton & Isabel Paehr).Not Reviewe

A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis of the Impact of an Oil Price Increase in South Africa

Following recent international oil price increases, there has been considerable interest in how this external factor can affect the South African economy. This paper reports results from a computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis of an increase (up to 30 per cent) in international oil prices. Background information is provided, which puts the magnitude of the price variations in historical context. We describe the procedure used to adjust the social accounting matrix (SAM), which is used to calibrate the model, to account explicitly for crude oil. Then, the effects of the crude oil price increase are traced through the economy, from markets, industries through to factors, households and the government. Predictably, the shock hurts the economy: a 20 per cent increase results in a drop in GDP of 1 per cent. It is found that the major impact is to be found in the petroleum industry itself, whereas the effects on liquid fuel dependent industries such as transport is not as large as may be supposed. In agriculture, it is found that the depreciating currency has a positive effect, offsetting most of the negative effects of higher petroleum prices, particularly in export-oriented areas. In a long-term scenario, capital and skilled labour becomes mobile, and the results suggest that such reallocation may not be to the overall advantage of the economy.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

SeeResults: A Spreadsheet Application for the Analysis of CGE Model Results

CGE models tend to produce large amounts of result data, and it can be difficult and timeconsuming to view, import, process and keep track of these. SeeResults is an Excel-based spreadsheet application that has been developed within the PROVIDE project to facilitate viewing results and producing presentation output, such as charts. It effectively functions as a GDX (a binary format used for output from GAMS) file viewer, and has been designed to be flexible, user-friendly and immediately usable with minimal configuration. This paper describes the rationale for the application, its main features, a number of screen captures and implementation notes.Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Costs and benefits of higher tariffs on wheat imports to South Africa

Low international wheat prices, caused by tariffs and subsidies in developed countries, have been blamed for causing financial difficulty to South African farmers. While indignation at unfair trade practices may be valid, it does not necessarily follow that protection of the local industry is the best response. This study uses a static general equilibrium model to describe and quantify the effects of increased tariffs (by up to 25 percentage points) on the local wheat industry, other affected industries-- particularly downstream industries-- and the economy at large. The effects on factors, households and the government are also analysed. The results show that the benefits to the wheat industry are highly concentrated and smaller than the loss of income caused in other sectors. Welfare is negatively affected, especially for low-income households, for whom the effects are exacerbated by increases in relative food prices.Computable general equilibrium (CGE), wheat, import tariffs, Crop Production/Industries, Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade,

Costs and Benefits of Higher Tariffs on Wheat Imports to South Africa - A General Equilibrium Analysis

Low international wheat prices caused by tariffs and subsidies in developed countries have been blamed for causing financial difficulty to local farmers. While the indignation at these unfair trade practices may be valid, it does not follow that protection of the local industry is necessarily the best course of action. This paper uses a static general equilibrium model to describe and quantify the effects of increased tariffs (by up to 25 percentage points) on the local wheat industry, other affected industries, particularly downstream industries, and the economy at large. Additionally, the effects on factors, households and the government are also analysed. The results show that the benefits to the wheat industry are highly concentrated and smaller than the loss of income caused in other sectors. Welfare is negatively affected, especially for low-income households, for whom the effects are exacerbated by food prices becoming somewhat more expensive relative to other prices.International Relations/Trade,

Advancing therapy in people with suboptimally controlled basal insulin-treated type 2 diabetes: Subanalysis of the SoliMix trial in participants in Latin American countries

Aims: This subanalysis of the SoliMix trial assessed the efficacy and safety of advancing basal insulin (BI) therapy with iGlarLixi versus BIAsp 30 in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D) living in Latin American (LATAM) countries, i.e. Argentina and Mexico (N = 160). Materials and Methods: SoliMix (EudraCT: 2017-003370-13) was a 26-week, open-label, multicentre study, where adults with T2D suboptimally controlled with BI plus one or two oral glucose-lowering drugs and glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) ≥7.5% to ≤10% were randomized to once-daily iGlarLixi or twice-daily BIAsp 30. Primary efficacy endpoints were non-inferiority in HbA1c reduction (margin 0.3%) or superiority in body weight change for iGlarLixi versus BIAsp 30. Results: Both primary efficacy endpoints were met in the LATAM region. After 26 weeks, HbA1c was reduced by 1.8% with iGlarLixi and 1.4% with BIAsp 30, meeting non-inferiority [least squares mean difference −0.47% (95% confidence interval: −0.82, −0.11); p <.001]. iGlarLixi was superior to BIAsp 30 for body weight change [least squares mean difference −1.27% (95% confidence interval: −2.41, −0.14); p =.028]. iGlarLixi was also superior to BIAsp 30 for HbA1c reduction (p =.010). A greater proportion of participants achieved HbA1c <7% without weight gain and HbA1c <7% without weight gain and without hypoglycaemia with iGlarLixi versus BIAsp 30. Incidence and rates of American Diabetes Association Level 1 and 2 hypoglycaemia were lower with iGlarLixi versus BIAsp 30. Conclusions: Once-daily iGlarLixi provided better glycaemic control with weight benefit and less hypoglycaemia than twice-daily premix BIAsp 30. iGlarLixi may be a favourable alternative to premix BIAsp 30 in people with suboptimally controlled T2D to advance BI therapy in the LATAM region.Fil: Frechtel, Gustavo Daniel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Houssay. Instituto de Inmunología, Genética y Metabolismo. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Medicina. Instituto de Inmunología, Genética y Metabolismo; ArgentinaFil: Sauque Reyna, Leobardo. Instituto de Diabetes, Obesidad y Nutrición; MéxicoFil: Choza Romero, Ricardo. Centro Médico Ono; MéxicoFil: Anguiano, Luis. Sanofi Pasteur; MéxicoFil: Melas Melt, Lydie. Ividata Life Sciences; MéxicoFil: Sañudo Maury, María Elena. Sanofi Pasteur; Méxic

Similar glycaemic control and less hypoglycaemia during active titration after insulin initiation with glargine 300 units/mL and degludec 100 units/mL: A subanalysis of the BRIGHT study

Aim: To further investigate glycaemic control and hypoglycaemia in BRIGHT, focusing on the titration period. Materials and Methods: BRIGHT was a multicentre, open-label, randomized, active-controlled, two-arm, parallel-group, 24-week study in insulin-naïve patients with uncontrolled type 2 diabetes initiated on glargine 300 U/mL (Gla-300) (N = 466) or degludec (IDeg-100) (N = 463). Predefined efficacy and safety outcomes were investigated during the initial 12-week titration period. In addition, patients’ characteristics and clinical outcomes were assessed descriptively, stratified by confirmed (≤3.9 mmol/L) hypoglycaemia incidence during the initial titration period. Results: At week 12, HbA1c was comparable between Gla-300 (7.32%) and IDeg-100 (7.23%), with similar least squares (LS) mean reductions from baseline (−1.37% and − 1.39%, respectively; LS mean difference of 0.02; 95% confidence interval: −0.08 to 0.12). Patients who experienced hypoglycaemia during the initial titration period had numerically greater HbA1c reductions by week 12 than patients who did not (−1.46% vs. −1.28%), and higher incidence of anytime (24 hours; 73.3% vs. 35.7%) and nocturnal (00:00–06:00 hours; 30.0% vs. 11.9%) hypoglycaemia between weeks 13–24. Conclusions: The use of Gla-300 resulted in similar glycaemic control as IDeg-100 during the initial 12-week titration period of the BRIGHT study, when less anytime (24 hours) hypoglycaemia with Gla-300 versus IDeg-100 has been reported. Experiencing hypoglycaemia shortly after initiating Gla-300 or IDeg-100 may be associated with hypoglycaemia incidence in the longer term, potentially impacting glycaemic management