Preliminary use of oxygen stable isotopes and the 1983 El Niño to assess the accuracy of aging black rockfish (Sebastes melanops)

Black rockfish (Sebastes melanops) range from California to Alaska and are found in both nearshore and shallow continental shelf waters (Love et al., 2002). Juveniles and subadults inhabit shallow water, moving deeper as they grow. Generally, adults are found at depths shallower than 55 meters and reportedly live up to 50 years. The species is currently managed by using information from an age-structured stock assessment model (Ralston and Dick, 2003)

Juan Valero Center for the Advancement of Population Assessment Methodology

A draft assessment of the coastwide petrale sole (Eopsetta jordani) off the U.S. west coast usin

Climate vulnerability assessment for Pacific salmon and steelhead in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem.

Major ecological realignments are already occurring in response to climate change. To be successful, conservation strategies now need to account for geographical patterns in traits sensitive to climate change, as well as climate threats to species-level diversity. As part of an effort to provide such information, we conducted a climate vulnerability assessment that included all anadromous Pacific salmon and steelhead (Oncorhynchus spp.) population units listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Using an expert-based scoring system, we ranked 20 attributes for the 28 listed units and 5 additional units. Attributes captured biological sensitivity, or the strength of linkages between each listing unit and the present climate; climate exposure, or the magnitude of projected change in local environmental conditions; and adaptive capacity, or the ability to modify phenotypes to cope with new climatic conditions. Each listing unit was then assigned one of four vulnerability categories. Units ranked most vulnerable overall were Chinook (O. tshawytscha) in the California Central Valley, coho (O. kisutch) in California and southern Oregon, sockeye (O. nerka) in the Snake River Basin, and spring-run Chinook in the interior Columbia and Willamette River Basins. We identified units with similar vulnerability profiles using a hierarchical cluster analysis. Life history characteristics, especially freshwater and estuary residence times, interplayed with gradations in exposure from south to north and from coastal to interior regions to generate landscape-level patterns within each species. Nearly all listing units faced high exposures to projected increases in stream temperature, sea surface temperature, and ocean acidification, but other aspects of exposure peaked in particular regions. Anthropogenic factors, especially migration barriers, habitat degradation, and hatchery influence, have reduced the adaptive capacity of most steelhead and salmon populations. Enhancing adaptive capacity is essential to mitigate for the increasing threat of climate change. Collectively, these results provide a framework to support recovery planning that considers climate impacts on the majority of West Coast anadromous salmonids

Vulnerability to climate change of managed stocks in the California Current large marine ecosystem

Introduction: Understanding how abundance, productivity and distribution of individual species may respond to climate change is a critical first step towards anticipating alterations in marine ecosystem structure and function, as well as developing strategies to adapt to the full range of potential changes. Methods: This study applies the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Fisheries Climate Vulnerability Assessment method to 64 federally-managed species in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem to assess their vulnerability to climate change, where vulnerability is a function of a species’ exposure to environmental change and its biological sensitivity to a set of environmental conditions, which includes components of its resiliency and adaptive capacity to respond to these new conditions. Results: Overall, two-thirds of the species were judged to have Moderate or greater vulnerability to climate change, and only one species was anticipated to have a positive response. Species classified as Highly or Very Highly vulnerable share one or more characteristics including: 1) having complex life histories that utilize a wide range of freshwater and marine habitats; 2) having habitat specialization, particularly for areas that are likely to experience increased hypoxia; 3) having long lifespans and low population growth rates; and/or 4) being of high commercial value combined with impacts from non-climate stressors such as anthropogenic habitat degradation. Species with Low or Moderate vulnerability are either habitat generalists, occupy deep-water habitats or are highly mobile and likely to shift their ranges. Discussion: As climate-related changes intensify, this work provides key information for both scientists and managers as they address the long-term sustainability of fisheries in the region. This information can inform near-term advice for prioritizing species-level data collection and research on climate impacts, help managers to determine when and where a precautionary approach might be warranted, in harvest or other management decisions, and help identify habitats or life history stages that might be especially effective to protect or restore

Spatio-temporal patterns in juvenile habitat for 13 groundfishes in the California Current Ecosystem.

Identifying juvenile habitats is critical for understanding a species' ecology and for focusing spatial fishery management by defining references like essential fish habitat (EFH). Here, we used vector autoregressive spatio-temporal models (VAST) to delineate spatial and temporal patterns in juvenile density for 13 commercially important species of groundfishes off the US west coast. In particular, we identified hotspots with high juvenile density. Three qualitative patterns of distribution and abundance emerged. First, Dover sole Microstomus pacificus, Pacific grenadier Coryphaenoides acrolepis, shortspine thornyhead Sebastolobus alascanus, and splitnose rockfish Sebastes diploproa had distinct, spatially-limited hotspots that were spatially consistent through time. Next, Pacific hake Merluccius productus and darkblotched rockfish Sebastes crameri had distinct, spatially limited hotspots, but the location of these hotspots varied through time. Finally, arrowtooth flounder Atheresthes stomias, English sole Parophrys vetulus, sablefish Anoplopoma fimbria, Pacific grenadier Coryphaenoides acrolepis, lingcod Ophiodon elongatus, longspine thornyhead Sebastolobus altivelis, petrale sole Eopsetta jordani, and Pacific sanddab Citharichthys sordidus had large hotspots that spanned a broad latitudinal range. These habitats represent potential, if not likely, nursery areas, the location of which will inform spatial management

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“Disclaimer: This information is distributed solely for the purpose of predissemination peer review under applicable information quality guidelines. It has not been formally disseminated by NOAA Fisheries. It does not represent and should not be construed to represent any agency determination or policy”

Spatio-temporal analysis of compositional data: increased precision and improved workflow using model-based inputs to stock assessment

Stock assessment models are fitted to abundance-index, fishery catch, and age/length/sex composition data that are estimated from survey and fishery records. Research has developed spatio-temporal methods to estimate abundance indices, but there is little research regarding model-based methods to generate age/length/sex composition data. We demonstrate a spatio-temporal approach to generate composition data and a multinomial sample size that approximates the estimated imprecision. A simulation experiment comparing spatio-temporal and design-based methods demonstrates a 32% increase in input sample size for the spatio-temporal estimator. A Stock Synthesis assessment used to manage lingcod in the California Current also shows a 17% increase in sample size and better model fit using the spatio-temporal estimator, resulting in smaller standard errors when estimating spawning biomass. We conclude that spatio-temporal approaches are feasible for estimating both abundance-index and compositional data, thereby providing a unified approach for generating inputs for stock assessments. We hypothesize that spatio-temporal methods will improve statistical efficiency for composition data in many stock assessments, and recommend that future research explore the impact of including additional habitat or sampling covariates.The accepted manuscript in pdf format is listed with the files at the bottom of this page. The presentation of the authors' names and (or) special characters in the title of the manuscript may differ slightly between what is listed on this page and what is listed in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript; that in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript is what was submitted by the author

Executive Summary............................................................................................ 5

Disclaimer: This information is distributed solely for the purpose of predissemination peer review under applicable information quality guidelines. It has not been formally disseminated by NOAA Fisheries. It does not represent and should not be construed to represent any agency determination or policy. DRAFT Status of the U.S. petrale sole resource in 2012 b

Accounting for spatio-temporal variation and fisher targeting when estimating abundance from multispecies fishery data

Estimating trends in abundance from fishery catch rates is one of the oldest endeavors in fisheries science. However, many jurisdictions do not analyze fishery catch rates due to concerns that these data confound changes in fishing behavior (adjustments in fishing location or gear operation) with trends in abundance. In response, we develop a spatial dynamic factor analysis (SDFA) model that decomposes covariation in multispecies catch rates into components representing spatial variation and fishing behavior. SDFA estimates spatiotemporal variation in fish density for multiple species, and accounts for fisher behavior at large spatial scales (i.e., choice of fishing location) while controlling for fisher behavior at fine spatial scales (e.g., daily timing of fishing activity). We first use a multispecies simulation experiment to show that SDFA decreases bias in abundance indices relative to ignoring spatial adjustments and fishing tactics. We then present results for a case study involving Petrale sole in the California current, for which SDFA estimates initially stable and then increasing abundance for the period 1986-2003, in accordance with fishery-independent survey and stock assessment estimates.The accepted manuscript in pdf format is listed with the files at the bottom of this page. The presentation of the authors' names and (or) special characters in the title of the manuscript may differ slightly between what is listed on this page and what is listed in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript; that in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript is what was submitted by the author