The Dynamics between Real Exchange Rate Movements and Trends in Trade Performance: The Case of Ethiopia

Ethiopia’s exchange rate policies have been a bone of contention for concerned economic analysts and commentators alike. This study takes a new look at the record to explore the impact of exchange rate liberalization reforms on export growth in Ethiopia. I employ generalized method of moments estimators (GMM) techniques on time series data for the period 1981-2009. The study does not support the widely held view that exchange rate reforms induce export growth. But world income was found to positively impact Ethiopia’s export receipts over time.Real Exchange Rate, Devaluation, Export Performance

The Dynamics between Real Exchange Rate Movements and Trends in Trade Performance: The Case of Ethiopia

ABSTRACT Ethiopia’s exchange rate policies have been a bone of contention for concerned economic analysts and commentators alike. This study takes a new look at the record to explore the impact of exchange rate liberalization reforms on export growth in Ethiopia. I employ generalized method of moments estimators (GMM) techniques on time series data for the period 1981- 2009. The study does not support the widely held view that exchange rate reforms induce export growth. But world income was found to positively impact Ethiopia’s export receipts over time

The Dynamics between Real Exchange Rate Movements and Trends in Trade Performance: The Case of Ethiopia

Ethiopia’s exchange rate policies have been a bone of contention for concerned economic analysts and commentators alike. This study takes a new look at the record to explore the impact of exchange rate liberalization reforms on export growth in Ethiopia. I employ generalized method of moments estimators (GMM) techniques on time series data for the period 1981-2009. The study does not support the widely held view that exchange rate reforms induce export growth. But world income was found to positively impact Ethiopia’s export receipts over time

Business Cycles and Financial Frictions under Money Growth Rule

In the last few years, macroeconomic modeling has emphasized the role of credit market frictions in magnifying and transmitting nominal and real disturbances and their implication for macro-prudential policy design. In this paper, I construct a modest New Keynesian general equilibrium model with active banking sector. In this set-up, the financial sector interacts with the real side of the economy via firm balance sheet and bank capital conditions and through their impact on investment and production decisions. I rely on the financial accelerator mechanism due to Bernanke et al. (1999) and combine it with a bank capital channel as demonstrated by Aguiar and Drumond (2007). The resulting model is calibrated from the perspective of a low-income economy reflecting the existence of relatively high investment adjustment cost, strong fiscal dominance, and underdeveloped financial and capital markets. The main objective of this exercise is to see whether the financial accelerator mechanism documented under interest-rate-rule based simulations could be replicated under a situation where the central bank uses money growth rule in stabilizing the national economy. The findings are broadly consistent with previous studies that demonstrated stronger role for credit market imperfections in amplifying and propagating monetary policy shocks

The Dynamics between Real Exchange Rate Movements and Trends in Trade Performance: The Case of Ethiopia

ABSTRACT Ethiopia’s exchange rate policies have been a bone of contention for concerned economic analysts and commentators alike. This study takes a new look at the record to explore the impact of exchange rate liberalization reforms on export growth in Ethiopia. I employ generalized method of moments estimators (GMM) techniques on time series data for the period 1981- 2009. The study does not support the widely held view that exchange rate reforms induce export growth. But world income was found to positively impact Ethiopia’s export receipts over time

Determinants of debt ratio levels among small-scale manufacturing enterprises in Ethiopia: Do government policies matter?

Businesses, consumers, and individual investors rely on a host of debt instruments when their internal resources are insufficient. This paper explores the determinants of debt financing choices among small-scale manufacturing enterprises in Ethiopia—with special focus on the role of government policies. The study exploits survey data gathered from 1321 enterprises in the Amhara region of Ethiopia and employs conditional mixed process (CMP) estimation technique to isolate the key drivers of firm debt levels. The major econometric findings confirm that enterprises that had some debt mix in their startup capital are more likely to be in higher debt categories than those enterprises that kick start exclusively with their own internal resources. In addition, the results also reveal that self-reported profitability, firm age, ownership structure, access to business development services, and receipt of bureaucratic support during enterprise formation process have strong effects on the degree of firms’ indebtedness. However, firm size, gender, and owner-manager’s education have no discernible correlation with reported debt levels in the sampled firms

Determinants of debt ratio levels among small-scale manufacturing enterprises in Ethiopia: Do government policies matter?

Businesses, consumers, and individual investors rely on a host of debt instruments when their internal resources are insufficient. This paper explores the determinants of debt financing choices among small-scale manufacturing enterprises in Ethiopia—with special focus on the role of government policies. The study exploits survey data gathered from 1321 enterprises in the Amhara region of Ethiopia and employs conditional mixed process (CMP) estimation technique to isolate the key drivers of firm debt levels. The major econometric findings confirm that enterprises that had some debt mix in their startup capital are more likely to be in higher debt categories than those enterprises that kick start exclusively with their own internal resources. In addition, the results also reveal that self-reported profitability, firm age, ownership structure, access to business development services, and receipt of bureaucratic support during enterprise formation process have strong effects on the degree of firms’ indebtedness. However, firm size, gender, and owner-manager’s education have no discernible correlation with reported debt levels in the sampled firms

A Small DSGE Model with Financial Frictions

In the last few years, macroeconomic modelling has emphasised the role of credit market frictions in magnifying and transmitting nominal and real disturbances and their implication for macro-prudential policy design. In this paper, we construct a modest New Keynesian general equilibrium model with active banking sector. In this set-up, the financial sector interacts with the real side of the economy via firm balance sheet and bank capital conditions and their impact on investment and production decisions. We rely on the financial accelerator mechanism due to Bernanke et al. (1999) and combine it with a bank capital channel as demonstrated by Aguiar and Drumond (2007). We calibrate the resulting model from the perspective of a low income economy reflecting the existence of relatively high investment adjustment cost, strong fiscal dominance, and underdeveloped financial and capital markets where the central bank uses money growth in stabilizing the national economy. Then we examine the impulse response of selected endogenous variables to shocks stemming from the fiscal authority, the monetary policy process, and technological progress. The findings are broadly consistent with previous studies that demonstrated stronger role for credit market imperfections in amplifying and propagating monetary policy shocks. Moreover, we also compare the trajectory of the model economy under alternative monetary policy instruments. The results suggest that the model with money growth rule generates higher volatility in output and inflation than the one with interest rate rule

The Dynamics between Real Exchange Rate Movements and Trends in Trade Performance: The Case of Ethiopia

ABSTRACT Ethiopia’s exchange rate policies have been a bone of contention for concerned economic analysts and commentators alike. This study takes a new look at the record to explore the impact of exchange rate liberalization reforms on export growth in Ethiopia. I employ generalized method of moments estimators (GMM) techniques on time series data for the period 1981- 2009. The study does not support the widely held view that exchange rate reforms induce export growth. But world income was found to positively impact Ethiopia’s export receipts over time.KEYWORDS: Real Exchange Rate, Devaluation, Export Performance.