Measuring the competitiveness of the UK construction industry. Volume 1

EBS’s estimates of relative productivity in construction are as follows: 1. The US is about 25-35% ahead of the UK and Germany in terms of average labour productivity (ALP). 2. The UK is ahead of Germany in ALP on an output per worker basis, but not on an output per hour worked basis (this is due to Germans working fewer hours per week on average). These results are largely unchanged under various sensitivity tests, for example, using GDP PPP exchange rates instead of construction PPP exchange rates to convert national currencies to a common currency. The EBS estimate for the US-UK comparison is supported by UCL/DL (who estimate a US lead in ALP of 42% in 1999). UCL/DL’s estimates for the Germany-UK comparison are also similar to those of EBS, since they show Germany level with the UK in ALP on an output per worker basis, but ahead on an output per hour worked basis. Productivity comparisons of the UK with France are subject to difficulties. Depending on the exchange rates they use for conversion purposes, EBS find that France is well ahead of Britain on some measures of ALP (and indeed is close to the US) but on other measures French ALP is much the same as in Britain. UCL/DL argue strongly for using an exchange rate, which shows French construction ALP to be well ahead of the UK. They state that: ‘The French construction PPPs have been controversial for some time….[and tend to lead to] underestimates of French construction output’. There are difficulties in conducting this type of analysis that are hard to surmount, for example it is unlikely that labour inputs are well measured in any country because of illegal immigration, ‘ the hidden economy’, etc. However, unless there is reason to think that the proportion of uncounted construction workers is significantly higher or lower in Britain as compared to, say, the United States, then it seems reasonable to accept that ALP in the US construction industry is some way ahead of the UK. In many ways cross-country comparisons of productivity levels across the whole construction industry are not comparing like with like since the composition of construction output differs greatly from country to country. It is therefore hard to construct reliable national rankings based on aggregated data for construction given the present state of the data

Early-time Spitzer observations of the type II-Plateau supernova, 2004dj

We present mid-infrared observations with the Spitzer Space Telescope of the nearby type II-P supernova, SN 2004dj, at epochs of 89 to 129 days. We have obtained the first mid-IR spectra of any supernova apart from SN 1987A. A prominent [NiII] 6.64 micron line is observed, from which we deduce that the mass of stable nickel must be at least 2.2e10(-4) Msun. We also observe the red wing of the CO-fundamental band. We relate our findings to possible progenitors and favour an evolved star, most likely a red supergiant, with a probable initial mass between ~10 and 15 Msun.Comment: ApJ Letters (accepted

A Spitzer Space Telescope study of SN 2002hh: an infrared echo from a Type IIP supernova

We present late-time (590-994 d) mid-IR photometry of the normal, but highly-reddened Type IIP supernova SN 2002hh. Bright, cool, slowly-fading emission is detected from the direction of the supernova. Most of this flux appears not to be driven by the supernova event but instead probably originates in a cool, obscured star-formation region or molecular cloud along the line-of-sight. We also show, however, that the declining component of the flux is consistent with an SN-powered IR echo from a dusty progenitor CSM. Mid-IR emission could also be coming from newly-condensed dust and/or an ejecta/CSM impact but their contributions are likely to be small. For the case of a CSM-IR echo, we infer a dust mass of as little as 0.036 M(solar) with a corresponding CSM mass of 3.6(0.01/r(dg))M(solar) where r(dg) is the dust-to-gas mass ratio. Such a CSM would have resulted from episodic mass loss whose rate declined significantly about 28,000 years ago. Alternatively, an IR echo from a surrounding, dense, dusty molecular cloud might also have been responsible for the fading component. Either way, this is the first time that an IR echo has been clearly identified in a Type IIP supernova. We find no evidence for or against the proposal that Type IIP supernovae produce large amounts of dust via grain condensation in the ejecta. However, within the CSM-IR echo scenario, the mass of dust derived implies that the progenitors of the most common of core-collapse supernovae may make an important contribution to the universal dust content.Comment: 41 pages, 11 figures, 4 tables, accepted for publication in Astrophysical Journal (References corrected

The Rise Times of High and Low Redshift Type Ia Supernovae are Consistent

We present a self-consistent comparison of the rise times for low- and high-redshift Type Ia supernovae. Following previous studies, the early light curve is modeled using a t-squared law, which is then mated with a modified Leibundgut template light curve. The best-fit t-squared law is determined for ensemble samples of low- and high-redshift supernovae by fitting simultaneously for all light curve parameters for all supernovae in each sample. Our method fully accounts for the non-negligible covariance amongst the light curve fitting parameters, which previous analyses have neglected. Contrary to Riess et al. (1999), we find fair to good agreement between the rise times of the low- and high-redshift Type Ia supernovae. The uncertainty in the rise time of the high-redshift Type Ia supernovae is presently quite large (roughly +/- 1.2 days statistical), making any search for evidence of evolution based on a comparison of rise times premature. Furthermore, systematic effects on rise time determinations from the high-redshift observations, due to the form of the late-time light curve and the manner in which the light curves of these supernovae were sampled, can bias the high-redshift rise time determinations by up to +3.6/-1.9 days under extreme situations. The peak brightnesses - used for cosmology - do not suffer any significant bias, nor any significant increase in uncertainty.Comment: 18 pages, 4 figures, Accepted for publication in the Astronomical Journal. Also available at http://www.lbl.gov/~nugent/papers.html Typos were corrected and a few sentences were added for improved clarit

Using scaling-region distributions to select embedding parameters

Reconstructing state-space dynamics from scalar data using time-delay embedding requires choosing values for the delay $\tau$ and the dimension $m$. Both parameters are critical to the success of the procedure and neither is easy to formally validate. While embedding theorems do offer formal guidance for these choices, in practice one has to resort to heuristics, such as the average mutual information (AMI) method of Fraser & Swinney for $\tau$ or the false near neighbor (FNN) method of Kennel et al. for $m$. Best practice suggests an iterative approach: one of these heuristics is used to make a good first guess for the corresponding free parameter and then an "asymptotic invariant" approach is then used to firm up its value by, e.g., computing the correlation dimension or Lyapunov exponent for a range of values and looking for convergence. This process can be subjective, as these computations often involve finding, and fitting a line to, a scaling region in a plot: a process that is generally done by eye and is not immune to confirmation bias. Moreover, most of these heuristics do not provide confidence intervals, making it difficult to say what "convergence" is. Here, we propose an approach that automates the first step, removing the subjectivity, and formalizes the second, offering a statistical test for convergence. Our approach rests upon a recently developed method for automated scaling-region selection that includes confidence intervals on the results. We demonstrate this methodology by selecting values for the embedding dimension for several real and simulated dynamical systems. We compare these results to those produced by FNN and validate them against known results -- e.g., of the correlation dimension -- where these are available. We note that this method extends to any free parameter in the theory or practice of delay reconstruction

What lies beneath? The role of informal and hidden networks in the management of crises

Crisis management research traditionally focuses on the role of formal communication networks in the escalation and management of organisational crises. Here, we consider instead informal and unobservable networks. The paper explores how hidden informal exchanges can impact upon organisational decision-making and performance, particularly around inter-agency working, as knowledge distributed across organisations and shared between organisations is often shared through informal means and not captured effectively through the formal decision-making processes. Early warnings and weak signals about potential risks and crises are therefore often missed. We consider the implications of these dynamics in terms of crisis avoidance and crisis management