The Dynamics of Revenue-Neutral Trade Liberalization

Abstract: The paper studies the dynamic welfare and macroeconomic effects of a revenue-neutral strategy of offsetting tariff reductions with increases in destination-based consumption taxes. To this end, we employ a dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open developing economy, featuring endogenous labor supply and sector-specific capital and land. In contrast to conventional results from tax-tariff reform studies based on fixed factor endowments, we find that instantaneous utility and the volume of trade fall on impact. Aggregate output rises in the short run, re ecting increased labor supply and a more efficient allocation of resources across sectors. In the long run, however, aggregate output declines, whereas instantaneous utility and the volume of trade increase compared to the pre-reform equilibrium. For a plausible calibration of the model, lifetime welfare is shown to increase.Tariff reform;coordinated tax-tariff reform;consumption tax reform;trade liberalization

Coordinated Tax-Tariff Reforms, Informality, and Welfare Distribution

The paper studies the revenue, efficiency, and distributional implications of a simple strategy of offsetting tariff reductions with increases in destination-based consumption taxes so as to leave consumer prices unchanged. We employ a dynamic micro-founded macroeconomic model of a small open developing economy, which features an informal sector that cannot be taxed, a formal agricultural sector, and an import-substitution sector. The reform strategy increases government revenue, imports, exports, and the informal sector. In contrast to Emran and Stiglitz (2005), who ignore the dynamic effects of taxes and tariffs on factor markets, we find an efficiency gain, which is unevenly distributed. Existing generations benefit more than future generations, who (depending on pre-existing tax and tariff rates and the informal sector size) even may become worse off.Tariff reform;consumption tax reform;informal sector;home production;transitional dynamics;overlapping generations;second-best outcome

The macroeconomic dynamics of trade liberalization, resource exploitation, and backstop technologies

The main conclusion of the first part of the dissertation is that intertemporal welfare effects from trade liberalizing reforms are important and should therefore be taken into account when judging the desirability of coordinated tax-tariff reforms in developing countries. The second part shows that the existence of backstop technologies is crucial for economic growth perspectives, the pace and nature of technological change, and the development of fossil fuel extraction over time. Moreover, it is shown that as a result of directed technological change, the actual implementation of a backstop technology may become a self-fulfilling-prophecy

Carbon Lock-In: The Role of Expectations

We argue that expectations about future energy use affect the transition from fossil to renewables, because of an interaction between innovation and resource scarcity. The paper presents a model of directed technical change to study this interaction. We find that fossil-saving technical change erodes the incentives to implement renewables. Conversely, the anticipation of a transition to renewables diminishes the incentives to invest in fossil technology. As a result, two equilibria may arise, one with a transition to renewables and with low fossil efficiency, and one without renewables and with high fossil efficiency. Expectations determine which equilibrium arises in equilibrium

Coordinated Tax-Tariff Reforms, Informality, and Welfare Distribution

The paper studies the revenue, efficiency, and distributional implications of a simple strategy of offsetting tariff reductions with increases in destination-based consumption taxes so as to leave consumer prices unchanged. We employ a dynamic micro-founded macroeconomic model of a small open developing economy, which features an informal sector that cannot be taxed, a formal agricultural sector, and an import-substitution sector. The reform strategy increases government revenue, imports, exports, and the informal sector. In contrast to Emran and Stiglitz (2005), who ignore the dynamic effects of taxes and tariffs on factor markets, we find an efficiency gain, which is unevenly distributed. Existing generations benefit more than future generations, who (depending on pre-existing tax and tariff rates and the informal sector size) even may become worse off

Technological Change during the Energy Transition

The energy transition from fossil fuels to alternative energy sources has important consequences for technological change and resource extraction. We examine these consequences by incorporating a non-renewable resource and an alternative energy source in a market economy model of endogenous growth through expanding varieties. During the energy transition, technological progress is non-monotonic over time: it declines initially, starts increasing when the economy approaches the regime shift, and jumps down once the resource stock is exhausted. A moment of peak-oil does no longer necessarily occur, and simultaneous use of the resource and the alternative energy source will take place if the return to innovation becomes too low

The Dynamics of Revenue-Neutral Trade Liberalization

Abstract: The paper studies the dynamic welfare and macroeconomic effects of a revenue-neutral strategy of offsetting tariff reductions with increases in destination-based consumption taxes. To this end, we employ a dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open developing economy, featuring endogenous labor supply and sector-specific capital and land. In contrast to conventional results from tax-tariff reform studies based on fixed factor endowments, we find that instantaneous utility and the volume of trade fall on impact. Aggregate output rises in the short run, re ecting increased labor supply and a more efficient allocation of resources across sectors. In the long run, however, aggregate output declines, whereas instantaneous utility and the volume of trade increase compared to the pre-reform equilibrium. For a plausible calibration of the model, lifetime welfare is shown to increase.