Market risk analysis of coal liquefaction

This study addresses the risks associated with coal liquefaction using a market risk simulation approach. The study can be divided into four phases: (i) identify the sources of risk, (ii) examine the relationships among different sources that cause the risk, (iii) estimate the risk level based on the sources of risk using statistical and financial method and (iv) provide conclusions and recommendations for risk analysis.;Market risk is considered the most important risk for commercial scale coal liquefaction projects and is one of the biggest obstacles to commercialization. This study analyses market risk and discusses methods to lower this type of risk. For a coal liquefaction project, the relationship between coal and oil prices has a critical influence on the project\u27s feasibility. This study also extends the relationship among different types of risks of coal liquefaction and provides guidelines for risk management.;In the risk assessment section, statistical and financial methods are applied to analyze the risk of a proposed coal liquefaction project in West Virginia. Granger Causality Tests are conducted to examine the relationship between coal and oil prices. Using the estimated standard errors, Monte Carlo simulations of NPV are performed to access the financial viability of the West Virginia coal liquefaction project. The results show that the project has a high probability of financial feasibility including a high expected net present value with an acceptable standard deviation. Conclusions and extended discussions are based on the simulation results

7-Benzyl-2,7-diaza­spiro­[4.4]nonan-1-one

In the title compound, C14H18N2O, both the spiro-linked five-membered rings adopt envelope conformations, with a C atom as the flap in one ring and an N atom in the other. The dihedral angle between the two four-atom planes is 80.46 (8)°. In the crystal, the mol­ecules are linked by N—H⋯O hydrogen bonds to generate C(4) chains propagating in [010]

1-(4-Chloro­phen­yl)-3-(5-methyl-2-fur­yl)prop-2-en-1-one

The title compound, C14H11ClO2, was prepared from 4-chloro­hypnone and 5-methyl­furfural by an aldol condensation reaction. The dihedral angle formed between the two benzene rings is 7.71 (2)°. The crystal structure is stabilized by C—H⋯O inter­actions

3-(2-Fluoro­phen­yl)-1-(4-methoxy­phen­yl)prop-2-en-1-one

The title compound, C16H13FO2, was prepared from 4-methoxy­hypnone and 2-fluoro­benzophenone by a Claisen–Schmidt condensation reaction. The dihedral angle between the two benzene rings is 31.99 (2)°. In the crystal structure, mol­ecules are linked by weak inter­molecular C—H⋯O hydrogen bonds along [010]

Interplay between chiral and deconfinement phase transitions

By using the dressed Polyakov loop or dual chiral condensate as an equivalent order parameter of the deconfinement phase transition, we investigate the relation between the chiral and deconfinement phase transitions at finite temperature and density in the framework of three-flavor Nambu--Jona-Lasinio (NJL) model. It is found that in the chiral limit, the critical temperature for chiral phase transition coincides with that of the dressed Polyakov loop in the whole $(T,\mu)$ plane. In the case of explicit chiral symmetry breaking, it is found that the phase transitions are flavor dependent. For each flavor, the transition temperature for chiral restoration $T_c^{\chi}$ is smaller than that of the dressed Polyakov loop $T_c^{{\cal D}}$ in the low baryon density region where the transition is a crossover, and, the two critical temperatures coincide in the high baryon density region where the phase transition is of first order. Therefore, there are two critical end points, i.e, $T_{CEP}^{u,d}$ and $T_{CEP}^{s}$ at finite density. We also explain the feature of $T_c^{\chi}=T_c^{\cal D}$ in the case of 1st and 2nd order phase transitions, and $T_c^{\chi}<T_c^{\cal D}$ in the case of crossover, and expect this feature is general and can be extended to full QCD theory.Comment: 8 pages, 12 figures, proceedings for the International Workshop on Hot and Cold Baryonic Matter 2010, Budapest, Aug. 15-20, 201

Gapped spin liquid with Z2\mathbb{Z}_2-topological order for kagome Heisenberg model

We apply symmetric tensor network state (TNS) to study the nearest neighbor spin-1/2 antiferromagnetic Heisenberg model on Kagome lattice. Our method keeps track of the global and gauge symmetries in TNS update procedure and in tensor renormalization group (TRG) calculation. We also introduce a very sensitive probe for the gap of the ground state -- the modular matrices, which can also determine the topological order if the ground state is gapped. We find that the ground state of Heisenberg model on Kagome lattice is a gapped spin liquid with the $\mathbb{Z}_2$-topological order (or toric code type), which has a long correlation length $\xi\sim 10$ unit cell length. We justify that the TRG method can handle very large systems with over thousands of spins. Such a long $\xi$ explains the gapless behaviors observed in simulations on smaller systems with less than 300 spins or shorter than 10 unit cell length. We also discuss experimental implications of the topological excitations encoded in our symmetric tensors.Comment: 10 pages, 7 figure

5-tert-Butyl 3-ethyl 1-isopropyl-4,5,6,7-tetra­hydro-1H-pyrazolo­[4,3-c]pyridine-3,5-dicarboxyl­ate

In the title compound, C17H27N3O4, the six-membered ring adopts a half-chair conformation with the N atom and the adjacent methyl­ene C atom displaced by −0.391 (2) and 0.358 (2) Å, respectively, from the plane of the other four atoms. In the crystal, mol­ecules are linked by weak C—H⋯O inter­actions

N′-[1-(2-Fur­yl)ethen­yl]propanohydrazide

The title compound, C9H12N2O2, was prepared by the reaction of acetyl­furan and propionylhydrazine. The molecule, excluding H atoms, is approximately planar. The crystal structure is stabilized by inter­molecular N—H⋯O hydrogen bonds

6-Benzyl 4-ethyl 2-chloro-5,6,7,8-tetra­hydro­pyrido[4,3-d]pyrimidine-4,6-di­carboxyl­ate

In the title compound, C18H18ClN3O4, the dihedral angle between the pyrimidine ring and the N-bonded ester grouping is 56.27 (7)° and the dihedral angle between the aromatic rings is 11.23 (7)°

Car Delay Model near Bus Stops with Mixed Traffic Flow

This paper proposes a model for estimating car delays at bus stops under mixed traffic using probability theory and queuing theory. The roadway is divided to serve motorized and nonmotorized traffic streams. Bus stops are located on the nonmotorized lanes. When buses dwell at the stop, they block the bicycles. Thus, two conflict points between car stream and other traffic stream are identified. The first conflict point occurs as bicycles merge to the motorized lane to avoid waiting behind the stopping buses. The second occurs as buses merge back to the motorized lane. The average car delay is estimated as the sum of the average delay at these two conflict points and the delay resulting from following the slower bicycles that merged into the motorized lane. Data are collected to calibrate and validate the developed model from one site in Beijing. The sensitivity of car delay to various operation conditions is examined. The results show that both bus stream and bicycle stream have significant effects on car delay. At bus volumes above 200 vehicles per hour, the curbside stop design is not appropriate because of the long car delays. It can be replaced by the bus bay design