A state space forecasting model with fiscal and monetary control

In this paper we model the U.S. economy parsimoniously in an a theoretic state space representation. We use monthly data for thirteen macroeconomic variables. We treat the federal deficit as a proxy for fiscal policy and the fed funds rate as a proxy for monetary policy and use each of them as control (exogenous) variables, and designate the rest as state variables. The output (measured) variable is the growth rate of quarterly real GDP which we interpolate to obtain a monthly equivalent. We specify a linear relation between state variables and implicitly allow for time variation of the relationship by using a recursive least squares (RLS) with forgetting factor algorithm to estimate the coefficients. The model coefficients are also estimated using ordinary least squares (OLS) and the resulting forecasts (in-sample and out-of-sample) are compared. The RLS algorithm performs better in the out-of-sample forecasts, particularly for those state variables which exhibit the greatest cyclical variations. Variables which had greater stability were forecasted more precisely with OLS estimated parameters.Forecasting ; Econometric models

Estimating Policy-Invariant Technology and Taste Parameters in the Financial Sector, When Risk and Growth Matter

This paper provides an approach to estimation of taste and technology parameters in the financial sector through Euler equation estimation under exact monetary aggregation conditions. This is the original working paper, which produced the more condensed version published in the November 1995 edition of the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. That special edition of the JMCB contains the proceedings of the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank September 1994 conference on Liquidity, Monetary Policy, and Financial Intermediation. At the end of this working paper is our submitted reply to the comments of one of the discussants. The journal proceedings volume includes the published comments of that discussant, but not our reply to that discussant (who also is an editor of the journal.....).Euler Divisia production Lucas critique technology index aggregation money