Testing a DSGE model of the EU using indirect inference

We use the method of indirect inference, using the bootstrap, to test the Smets and Wouters model of the EU against a VAR auxiliary equation describing their data; the test is based on the Wald statistic. We find that their model generates excessive variance compared with the data. If the errors are scaled down, then the original model marginally passes the Wald test. We compare a New Classical version of the model which passes the test but generates a combination of excessive inflation variance and inadequate output variance. If the large consumption and investment errors are removed as possibly due to low frequency events, then the New Classical version passes easily while the original version is strongly rejected.Bootstrap, DSGE Model, VAR model, Model of EU, indirect inference, Wald statistic.

Testing a Simple Structural Model of Endogenous Growth

The efect of taxation on growth is embodied in a model of a small open economy with endogenous growth. The structural model is estimated on post-war panel data for 76 countries and the bootstrap is used to produce the model’s sampling variation. Panel data regressions of growth on taxation do not reject this model but do reject a model with no tax effects.endogenous growth, taxation, business regulation, bootstrap, model validation.

Testing a DSGE model of the EU using indirect inference

We use the method of indirect inference, using the bootstrap, to test the Smets and Wouters model of the EU against a VAR auxiliary equation describing their data; the test is based on the Wald statistic. We find that their model generates excessive variance compared with the data. But their model passes the Wald test easily if the errors have the properties assumed by SW but scaled down. We compare a New Classical version of the model which also passes the test easily if error properties are chosen using New Classical priors (notably excluding shocks to preferences). Both versions have (different) difficulties fitting the data if the actual error properties are used.Bootstrap, DSGE Model, VAR model, Model of EU, indirect inference, Wald statistic.

Are the facts of UK inflation persistence to be explained by nominal rigidity or changes in monetary regime?

It has been widely argued that inflation persistence since WWII has been widespread and durable and that it can only be accounted for by models with a high degree of nominal rigidity. We examine UK post-war data and find that the varying persistence it reveals is largely due to changing monetary regimes and that models with moderate or even no nominal rigidity are best equipped to explain it.

Modelling monetary policy and financial markets

EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

Modelling monetary policy and financial markets

EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

Monetarism rides again? US monetary policy in a world of quantitative easing

In a model of banking we give money a role in providing cheap collateral; i.e. besides the Taylor Rule, monetary policy can affect the risk-premium by varying the supply of M0 in open market operations, so that even at the zero bound monetary policy is still effective, and fiscal policy still crowds out investment. A simple rule for making M0 respond to credit conditions can substantially enhance the economy's stability. This, in combination with Price-level or nominal GDP targeting rules for interest rates, stabilises the economy further, making aggressive and distortionary regulation of banks' balance sheets redundant