Comparing vector–host and SIR models for dengue transmission

Various simple mathematical models have been used to investigate dengue transmission. Some of these models explicitly model the mosquito population, while others model the mosquitoes implicitly in the transmission term. We study the impact of modeling assumptions on the dynamics of dengue in Thailand by fitting dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) data to simple vector–host and SIR models using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation. The parameter estimates obtained for both models were consistent with previous studies. Most importantly, model selection found that the SIR model was substantially better than the vector–host model for the DHF data from Thailand. Therefore, explicitly incorporating the mosquito population may not be necessary in modeling dengue transmission for some populations.This is an author's peer-reviewed final manuscript, as accepted by the publisher. The published article is copyrighted by Elsevier and can be found at: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/mathematical-biosciences/.Keywords: Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Mathematical model, Parameter estimation, Dengu

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The HIV pandemic continues to impose enormous morbidity, mortality and economic burdens across the globe. Simultaneously, innovations in antiretroviral therapy, diagnostic approaches and vaccine development are providing novel tools for treatment-as-prevention and prophylaxis. We developed a mathematical model to evaluate the added benefit of an HIV vaccine in the context of goals to increase rates of diagnosis, treatment, and viral suppression in 127 countries. Under status quo interventions, we predict a median of 49 million [1st and 3rd quartiles 44M, 58M] incident cases globally from 2015 to 2035. Achieving the UNAIDS 95–95–95 target was estimated to avert 25 million [20M, 33M] of these new infections, and an additional 6.3 million [4.8M, 8.7M] reduction was projected with the 2020 introduction of a 50%-efficacy vaccine gradually scaled up to 70% coverage. This added benefit of prevention through vaccination motivates imminent and ongoing clinical trials of viable candidates to realize the goal of HIV control

Amelioration of Reproduction-Associated Oxidative Stress in a Viviparous Insect Is Critical to Prevent Reproductive Senescence

Impact of reproductive processes upon female health has yielded conflicting results; particularly in relation to the role of reproduction-associated stress. We used the viviparous tsetse fly to determine if lactation, birth and involution lead to damage from oxidative stress (OS) that impairs subsequent reproductive cycles. Tsetse females carry an intrauterine larva to full term at each pregnancy cycle, and lactate to nourish them with milk secretions produced by the accessory gland ( = milk gland) organ. Unlike most K-strategists, tsetse females lack an apparent period of reproductive senescence allowing the production of 8–10 progeny over their entire life span. In a lactating female, over 47% of the maternal transcriptome is associated with the generation of milk proteins. The resulting single larval offspring weighs as much as the mother at birth. In studying this process we noted an increase in specific antioxidant enzyme (AOE) transcripts and enzymatic activity at critical times during lactation, birth and involution in the milk gland/fat body organ and the uterus. Suppression of superoxide dismutase (sod) decreased fecundity in subsequent reproductive cycles in young mothers and nearly abolished fecundity in geriatric females. Loss of fecundity was in part due to the inability of the mother to produce adequate milk to support larval growth. Longevity was also impaired after sod knockdown. Generation of OS in virgin females through exogenous treatment with hydrogen peroxide at times corresponding to pregnancy intervals reduced survival, which was exacerbated by sod knockdown. AOE expression may prevent oxidative damage associated with the generation of nutrients by the milk gland, parturition and milk gland breakdown. Our results indicate that prevention of OS is essential for females to meet the growing nutritional demands of juveniles during pregnancy and to repair the damage that occurs at birth. This process is particularly important for females to remain fecund during the latter portion of their lifetime

Evaluating Paratransgenesis as a Potential Control Strategy for African Trypanosomiasis

Genetic-modification strategies are currently being developed to reduce the transmission of vector-borne diseases, including African trypanosomiasis. For tsetse, the vector of African trypanosomiasis, a paratransgenic strategy is being considered: this approach involves modification of the commensal symbiotic bacteria Sodalis to express trypanosome-resistance-conferring products. Modified Sodalis can then be driven into the tsetse population by cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI) from Wolbachia bacteria. To evaluate the effectiveness of this paratransgenic strategy in controlling African trypanosomiasis, we developed a three-species mathematical model of trypanosomiasis transmission among tsetse, humans, and animal reservoir hosts. Using empirical estimates of CI parameters, we found that paratransgenic tsetse have the potential to eliminate trypanosomiasis, provided that any extra mortality caused by Wolbachia colonization is low, that the paratransgene is effective at protecting against trypanosome transmission, and that the target tsetse species comprises a large majority of the tsetse population in the release location

Retrospective Analysis of the 2014-2015 Ebola Epidemic in Liberia.

The 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic has been the most protracted and devastating in the history of the disease. To prevent future outbreaks on this scale, it is imperative to understand the reasons that led to eventual disease control. Here, we evaluated the shifts of Ebola dynamics at national and local scales during the epidemic in Liberia. We used a transmission model calibrated to epidemiological data between June 9 and December 31, 2014, to estimate the extent of community and hospital transmission. We found that despite varied local epidemic patterns, community transmission was reduced by 40-80% in all the counties analyzed. Our model suggests that the tapering of the epidemic was achieved through reductions in community transmission, rather than accumulation of immune individuals through asymptomatic infection and unreported cases. Although the times at which this transmission reduction occurred in the majority of the Liberian counties started before any large expansion in hospital capacity and the distribution of home protection kits, it remains difficult to associate the presence of interventions with reductions in Ebola incidence

Effectiveness of UNAIDS targets and HIV vaccination across 127 countries

The HIV pandemic continues to impose enormous morbidity, mortality and economic burdens across the globe. Simultaneously, innovations in antiretroviral therapy, diagnostic approaches and vaccine development are providing novel tools for treatment-as-prevention and prophylaxis. We developed a mathematical model to evaluate the added benefit of an HIV vaccine in the context of goals to increase rates of diagnosis, treatment, and viral suppression in 127 countries. Under status quo interventions, we predict a median of 49 million [1st and 3rd quartiles 44M, 58M] incident cases globally from 2015 to 2035. Achieving the UNAIDS 95–95–95 target was estimated to avert 25 million [20M, 33M] of these new infections, and an additional 6.3 million [4.8M, 8.7M] reduction was projected with the 2020 introduction of a 50%-efficacy vaccine gradually scaled up to 70% coverage. This added benefit of prevention through vaccination motivates imminent and ongoing clinical trials of viable candidates to realize the goal of HIV control