Complementarity analysis of the Priority Areas Development Program and the Priority Attention Areas Program in the National Crusade Against Hunger Program in indigenous municipalities in the State of Veracruz Mexico

Mexico, with the commissioning of the "National Crusade Against Hunger Program" in 2013, aimed at serving the population that presents both extreme poverty and food deprivation. The article aims to analyze whether the criterion of the selection of the municipalities of the State of Veracruz incorporated in the National Crusade Against Hunger Program (PNCH) show complementarity with the efforts in the fight against poverty in the social expenditure strategy applied in the Priority Attention Zones Program (ZAP) and the Priority Areas Development Program (PDZP) and, particularly, the indigenous municipalities that have a greater degree of social exclusion. The adjustment of a binary logistic regression model is presented, in order to assess the incidence of contextual factors to interpret the scope of the strategy adopted by the federal government in the fight against poverty and hunger. As a result, it is evident that there is no continuity in the fight against poverty, since the municipalities included in the strategy Priority Areas of Attention and Program of Development of Priority Zones are not considered in the selection of municipalities incorporated in the National Program of Crusade Against Hunger, a situation that identifies the relationship between programs is not complementary

Modern public finances as a proposal for an emerging country: The social approach in the fight against poverty in Mexico

In Mexico, the management of public resources has been questioned by the State, and mainly the results that the public administration at its three levels (federal, state and municipal), by the lack of transparency in the application and verification of public resources. The experience that gives us the operation of different emerging programs that focused on reducing social and economic inequality in the country, we can locate them as the first attempts in the search for a solution that is complex. Moving from the role of the benefactor and welfare state to the promoter of the regions and in the recognition of the focalization of priority attention areas, the path that has been taken is not only the beginning. Recognizing the public nature of public finances as a promoter of social development, we must understand it as the one assumed by the State through social, political and economic co-responsibility to solve poverty and marginalization of its own public policy orientation and vision of solution has been made since the eighties. From the above, we can point out some preliminary conclusions including the study of the indigenous language-speaking population with a high level of social exclusion in the methodology for the definition of multidimensional poverty in Mexico, will allow the allocation of public resources in the fight against poverty to be effective since it will make it possible to identify to the target population that is subject to social exclusion and marginalization. This invites us to a final reflection: What to do to address the just social demands of the indigenous population that is immersed in poverty, marginalization and exclusion? What to do so that they do not leave their communities, and if they have already done so, how to attend to the needs of family groups that are due to the expense of a remittance that may never arrive

Narco Violence in Mexico: A Spatial Analysis of Drug-Related Bloodshed

Latin American Studie

Empowerment of Indigenous Women and Social Exclusion in Combating Poverty in the State of Veracruz Mexico

In Mexico, the Productive Organization Program for Indigenous Women (POPMI) seeks the empowerment of productive capacities in indigenous women. Our study analyzes POPMI outreach, focusing our attention on women beneficiaries who present a high degree of social exclusion and multidimensional poverty in the State of Veracruz. In the study area, the 542 indigenous women benefited in POPMI, presented a condition of multidimensional poverty and a degree of social exclusion: very high, high and medium, they represent only 22.19% of the total beneficiaries of this program In 2010, since at the state level a total of 2,243 indigenous women were cared for. The results show that the localities where the condition of multidimensional poverty and very high, medium and high levels of social exclusion have been excluded in the coverage of POPMI

ANTICORRUPTION NATIONAL SYSTEM: Model Whistleblowers direct citizen action against corruption in Mexico

The phenomenon of corruption is a cancer that affects our country and that it is necessary to eradicate; This dilutes the opportunities for economic and social development, privileging the single conjunction of particular interests, political actors in non-legal agreements for their own benefit, which lead to acts of corruption. Recent studies indicate that the level of corruption present in a political system is directly related to the type of institutional structure that defines it (Boehm and Lambsdorff, 2009), as well as the ineffectiveness of the control organisms (Casar, 2015; Cárdenas, 2010, Rojas, 2010, Carbonell, 2009, Restrepo, 2004), which requires citizen action to combat corruption (Sandoval, 2010, Villanueva, 2006). This work, focuses our attention on the federal public administration, presenting as a proposal to empower the citizen action in the fight against corruption and in the National Anticorruption System; the figure of Whistleblowers or generator of citizen alert, based on two fundamental principles: i) recognizing the citizen's obligation to report acts of corruption and ii) the granting by the authority of witness protection. These two actions will result in two important results: i) Consolidate the citizen's complaint to inform society about acts of corruption and ii) and the exercise of freedom of information so that society is able to be informed about acts of corruption. These actions will allow promoting and consolidating a culture of reporting acts of corruption that may constitute a crime as a fundamental pillar in the National Anticorruption System in Mexico

How Informative are In–Sample Information Criteria to Forecasting? The Case of Chilean GDP

There is no standard economic forecasting procedure that systematically outperforms the others at all horizons and with any dataset. A common way to proceed, in many contexts, is to choose the best model within a family based on a fitting criteria, and then forecast. I compare the out-of-sample performance of a large number of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models with some variations, chosen by three commonly used information criteria for model building: Akaike, Schwarz, and Hannan-Quinn. I perform this exercise to identify how to achieve the smallest root mean squared forecast error with models based on information criteria. I use the Chilean GDP dataset, estimating with a rolling window sample to generate one- to four-step ahead forecasts. Also, I examine the role of seasonal adjustment and the Easter effect on out-of-sample performance. After the estimation of more than 20 million models, the results show that Akaike and Schwarz are better criteria for forecasting purposes where the traditional ARMA specification is preferred. Accounting for the Easter effect improves the forecast accuracy only with seasonally adjusted data, and second-order stationarity is best.

The Effects of Global Warming on Fisheries

This paper develops two fisheries models in order to estimate the effect of global warming (GW) on firm value. GW is defined as an increase in the average temperature of the earth's surface because of CO₂ emissions. It is assumed that (i) GW exists, and (ii) higher temperatures negatively affect biomass. The literature on biology and GW supporting these two crucial assumptions is reviewed. The main argument presented is that temperature increase has two effects on biomass, both of which have an impact on firm value. First, higher temperatures cause biomass to oscillate. To measure the effect of biomass oscillation on firm value Pindyck's (1984) model is modified to include water temperature as a variable. The results indicate that a 1 to 20% variation in biomass causes firm value to fall from 6 to 44%, respectively. Second, higher temperatures reduce biomass, and a modification of the Smith's (1968) model reveals that an increase in temperature anomaly between +1 and +8°C causes fishery's value to decrease by 8 to 10%.fisheries; fisheries economics; global warming; climate change

How informative are in-sample information criteria to forecasting? the case of Chilean GDP

There is no standard economic forecasting procedure that systematically outperforms the others at all horizons and with any dataset. A common way to proceed, in many contexts, is to choose the best model within a family based on a fitting criteria, and then forecast. I compare the out-of-sample performance of a large number of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models with some variations, chosen by three commonly used information criteria for model building: Akaike, Schwarz, and Hannan-Quinn. I perform this exercise to identify how to achieve the smallest root mean squared forecast error with models based on information criteria. I use the Chilean GDP dataset, estimating with a rolling window sample to generate one- to four-step ahead forecasts. Also, I examine the role of seasonal adjustment and the Easter effect on out-of-sample performance. After the estimation of more than 20 million models, the results show that Akaike and Schwarz are better criteria for forecasting purposes where the traditional ARMA specification is preferred. Accounting for the Easter effect improves the forecast accuracy only with seasonally adjusted data, and second-order stationarity is best.data mining; forecasting; ARIMA; seasonal adjustment; Easter-effect