DELIVERING ON BUDGET FY2009â€Â10 : A SET OF IMPLEMENTATION ISSUES

The newly elected government proposed its first budget on 11 June 2009 with a view to support a trajectory of moderate growth, reduced poverty through employment generation and expansion of safety nets, low price level and tackle the impact of the global financial crisis. The Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) in its budget reaction pointed out that addressing these objectives will entail designing of a set of appropriate budgetary measures, but will depend much more on the efficacy of their delivery (CPD 2009a). Furthermore, such delivery will need a coherent, coordinated, consistent and committed participation of the total government machinery and all other development actors and stakeholders. It was encouraging to see that the Finance Minister publicly agreed with the analysts that implementation of the budget would be the most important challenge. In his postbudget press briefing on 12 June 2009, the Finance Minister stated : While drawing up the budget, we knew its execution was going to pose a huge challenge (The Daily Star 2009). In this context the present study seeks to facilitate an early kickoff of budget implementation in FY200910 and to complement the continuing monitoring process by the government. The study is based on analysis of secondary data, government policy documents and media reports. Interviews with the knowledgeable people were also carried out to generate insights. Along with selective econometric exercise, academic literature was reviewed to strengthen the analysis. Promoting economic growth is the primary objective of the budget implementation; conversely growth itself is a key determinant of successful implementation of budget. In this context, the paper sets off by exploring the growth prospect for FY200910 and its linkages with implementation of the budget. Resource mobilisation is one of the two pillars of a budgetary framework; subsequent two sections, thus, highlight the issues related to revenue mobilisation from domestic source and foreign assistance inflow. On the expenditure side, a select set of expenditure issues relating to the revenue expenditures have been examined, besides reviewing the challenges of annual development plan (ADP) delivery. As mainstreaming of the publicprivate partnership (PPP) has been one of the distinguishing features of the budget, a separate section has been devoted to the theme. The penultimate section of the paper brings the resource and expenditure sides together and discusses the issues relating to budget deficit and its financing. The paper then rounds up with a set of possible scenarios along with a few concluding observations.Bangladesh, Economic Outlook, Budget

Flash Flood Risk and Resilience Analysis of Tanguar Haor Adjacent Areas

Bangladesh faces various types of natural hazards from its birth due to geographical location and physiographic sitting. Flood is the most common event among them. North-eastern part of Bangladesh faces flash flood almost every year with large scale of damage. Tanguar Haor, a famous ramsar site of Bangladesh located in Sunamganj district. This wetland adjacent areas are the most vulnerable zone in terms of flash flood hazard. About more than 80% people are the direct victim of this hazard. This study tries to assess the risk and resilience status of flash flood using risk and resilience assessment matrix. To accomplish this research both primary and secondary data have used. Through this work the comparative view between risk and resilience status has tried to represent. That shows the actual penetration of the depth of risk reduction policy making to improve the condition and minimize the losses of flash flood in the study area

COVID-19 and Bangladesh Macroeconomic Impact and Policy Choices

Bangladesh, like most of the countries in the world, had to restrict mobility and economic activities to tackle the spread of the COVID-19 virus. Indeed, the pandemic has been exerting pressure on the economy through both global and domestic shocks leading to a detrimental impact on major macroeconomic correlates of the country. The present study urges that Bangladesh will need to pursue a countercyclical fiscal policy stance in the face of deceleration in aggregate demand. The study further maintains that greater fiscal resources should be directed towards those people, households and enterprises having a higher propensity to consume and invest. From this perspective, the study strongly advocates for direct cash transfers, food support, and enhanced public expenditures in health and education rather than a general increase in public expenditures and subsidised credit flow. Using Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, the study presents ex-ante economic-wide impact analyses of two expansionary fiscal policy interventions. Doubling government transfers to lowincome household categories is expected to have a greater impact on the real consumption of poorer households. In contrast, a 50 per cent increase in government expenditure for health and education will have a greater positive impact on real GDP and export. In view of the trends of the last decade, the study concludes that it is not the lack of resources, rather the limited capacity of the government agencies which poses the major challenge in pursuing an expansionary fiscal policy in the country

How air quality and COVID-19 transmission change under different lockdown scenarios? A case from Dhaka city, Bangladesh

The transmission of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) can be reduced by implementing a lockdown policy, which has also been proven as an effective control measure for air pollution in the urban cities. In this study, we applied ground- and satellite-based data of five criteria air pollutants (PM2.5, NO2, SO2, O3, and CO) and meteorological factors from March 8 to May 15, 2020 (before, partial-, and full-lockdown). The generalized additive models (GAMs), wavelet coherence, and random forest (RF) model were employed to explore the relationship between air quality indicators and COVID-19 transmission in Dhaka city. Results show that overall, 26, 20.4, 17.5, 9.7 and 8.8% declined in PM 2.5, NO2, SO2, O3, and CO concentrations, respectively, in Dhaka City during the partial and full lockdown compared to the period before the lockdown. The implementation of lockdown policy for containing COVID-19 transmission played a crucial role in reducing air pollution. The findings of wavelet coherence and partial wavelet coherence demonstrate no standalone coherence, but interestingly, multiple wavelet coherence indicated a strong short-term coherence among air pollutants and meteorological factors with the COVID-19 outbreak. Outcomes of GAMs indicated that an increase of 1-unit in long-term exposure to O3 and CO (lag1) was associated with a 2.9% (95% CI: −0.3%, −5.6%), and 53.9% (95% CI: 0.2%, −107.9%) decreased risk of COVID-19 infection rate during the full-lockdown period. Whereas, COVID-19 infection and MT (mean temperature) are modulated by a peak during full-lockdown, which is mostly attributed to contact transmission in Dhaka city. RF model revealed among the parameters being studied, MT, RH (relative humidity), and O3 were the dominant factors that could be associated with COVID-19 cases during the study period. The outcomes reported here could elucidate the effectiveness of lockdown scenarios for COVID-19 containment and air pollution control in Dhaka city

Impact of Air Pollutant on Human Health in Kushtia Sugar Mill, Bangladesh

Abstract. The study dealt with the concentration of air pollutants emitted from Kushtia sugar mills in Jagati region of Bangladesh in order to evaluate their impact on human health. The dispersion of air pollutants from sugar mill's chimney was obtained through point source Gaussian dispersion model. The air pollutants were monitored during winter season in 2011-2012. A questionnaire survey was randomly carried out in a small scale at the study area. The result showed that the maximum concentration of SO 2 , NO x and PM 10 were 28.837 µg/m 3 , 76.177 µg/m 3 and 380.339 µg/m 3 respectively. The particulate matter (PM 10 ) concentration was found to be very high whereas sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) and nitrogen oxide (NO x) concentrations were low at the study area. The calculated value of air pollution index (API) was 88.18 which indicate that heavy air pollution can predispose individuals to heart and lung disease in the study area people. This study revealed that the concentration of particulate matter found in Kushtia sugar mill had exceeded the minimum level according to the WHO standards. The high concentration of PM 10 is suggested to affect human health and environmental conditions in the study area

Evaluating Structural, Chlorophyll-Based and Photochemical Indices to Detect Summer Maize Responses to Continuous Water Stress

his study evaluates the performance of structural, chlorophyll-based, and photochemical indices to detect maize water status and to assess production based on five years of field experiments (2013–2017) during the primary growth stages. We employed three categories of indicators, including water condition and productive and thermal indicators, to quantify the responses of summer maize under continuous water stress from drought to waterlogging conditions. Furthermore, we adopted several spectral indices to assess their sensitivity to three categories of metrics. The results showed the association is the best between the treatment level and Leaf Water Content (LWC). The waterlogging treatment influenced Leaf Water Potential (LWP) in moderate drought stress. Severe drought stress caused the strongest reduction in productivity from both Leaf Area Index (LAI) and chlorophyll content. In terms of sensitivity of various indices, red-edge-position (REP) was sensitive to maize water conditions LWP, LAI and chlorophyll content. Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were the most and second most sensitive indices to productive indicators, respectively. The results also showed that no indices were capable of capturing the information of Crop Water Stress Index (CWSI)

Drought Hazard Evaluation in Boro Paddy Cultivated Areas of Western Bangladesh at Current and Future Climate Change Conditions

Drought hazard is one of the main hindrances for sustaining food security in Bangladesh, and climate change may exacerbate it in the next several decades. This study aims to evaluate drought hazard at current and future climate change conditions in the Boro paddy cultivated areas of western Bangladesh using simulated climate data from the outputs of three global climate models (GCMs) based on the SRES A1B scenario for the period between 2041 and 2070. The threshold level of Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was employed to identify drought events and its probability distribution function (PDF) was applied to create the drought hazard index. The study demonstrates that enhancement of potential evapotranspiration (PET) will surpass that of precipitation, resulting in intensified drought events in future. In addition, the PDFs of drought events will move the upper tail in future period compared to the baseline. The results showed that the southwestern region was more severe to the drought hazard than the northwestern region during the period of 1984 to 2013. From the results of three GCMs, in the mid-century period, drought hazard will slightly increase in the northwestern region and flatten with a decrease in the southwestern region. The outcomes will help to allocate agricultural adaptation plans under climate change condition in Bangladesh

Comparison of radiation therapy alone and concurrent chemoradiation therapy for in operable cervical cancer

Objectives: Concurrent chemoradiation therapy (CCRT) is the standard treatment for inoperable cervical cancer. The purpose of this study was to compare the outcomes of CCRT with cisplatin and radiotherapy (RT) for inoperable cervical cancer. Methods: From January 2O12 to June 2012, 60 female patients with FIGO stage IIB to IVA were enrolled in this randomized phase III trial to compare radiotherapy (RT) alone with chemo radiotherapy (RT 5 Fraction in a week and Cinplatin 40 mg weekly). External beam radiation therapy was delivered using a telecobalt-60 unit. This was followed by 21 Gy of intracavitary brachytherapy. Results: In total, 30 patients were recruited: RT alone (30) and CCRT (30). The age of patients ranged from 26-65 years. There was statistically significant (p value < 0.037) complete response (70.00%) CCRT group vs 43.30% RT group) in CCRT group. Conclusion: CCRT was seen to have better efficacy for patients with inoperable cervical cancer than RT alone.

The optimal alternative for quantifying reference evapotranspiration in climatic sub-regions of Bangladesh

Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is a basic element for hydrological designing and agricultural water resources management. The FAO56 recommended Penman–Monteith (FAO56-PM) formula recognized worldwide as the robust and standard model for calculating ETo. However, the use of the FAO56-PM model is restricted in some data-scarce regions like Bangladesh. Therefore, it is imperative to find an optimal alternative for estimating ETo against FAO56-PM model. This study comprehensively compared the performance of 13 empirical models (Hargreaves–Samani, HargreavesM1, Hargreaves M2, Berti, WMO, Abtew, Irmak 1, Irmak 2, Makkink, Priestley-Taylor, Jensen–Haise, Tabari and Turc) by using statistical criteria for 38-years dataset from 1980 to 2017 in Bangladesh. The radiation-based model proposed by Abtew (ETo,6) was selected as an optimal alternative in all the sub-regions and whole Bangladesh against FAO56-PM model owing to its high accuracy, reliability in outlining substantial spatiotemporal variations of ETo, with very well linearly correlation with the FAO56-PM and the least errors. The importance degree analysis of 13 models based on the random forest (RF) also depicted that Abtew (ETo,6) is the most reliable and robust model for ETo computation in different sub-regions. Validation of the optimal alternative produced the largest correlation coefficient of 0.989 between ETo,s and ETo,6 and confirmed that Abtew (ETo,6) is the best suitable method for ETo calculation in Bangladesh

Comparison of future changes in frequency of climate extremes between coastal and inland locations of Bengal delta based on CMIP6 climate models

Climate change is perceived to be the primary reason for the amplification of extreme climatic phenomena. Estimation of changes in extreme values under climate change thus plays an important role in disaster risk assessment and management. However, the different changes in extremes in two distinct regions: inland and coast under climate change are yet to be investigated meticulously. This study is intended to assess the changes in frequency of rainfall and temperature extremes under the impact of climate change in two distinct locations: coast and inland of Bengal delta, a region highly vulnerable to climate change. The multi-model ensemble (projections from CMIP6 framework) technique with the application of frequency analysis was employed to appraise the impact in two future time horizons. Results suggest that the inland estimate of extreme rainfall by the end of this century is barely able to exceed the coastal estimate of extreme rainfall in present conditions. The rate of increase of warm extremes is almost similar; however, with the cold extreme, the increase rate is a little higher inland than on the coast. In both regions, a greater rise in climate extremes is expected in the far future than in the near future. Overall, the coastal area is expected to be more vulnerable to flooding while the inland to drought under climate change in the Bengal delta region