Prediction of remaining life of power transformers based on left truncated and right censored lifetime data

Prediction of the remaining life of high-voltage power transformers is an important issue for energy companies because of the need for planning maintenance and capital expenditures. Lifetime data for such transformers are complicated because transformer lifetimes can extend over many decades and transformer designs and manufacturing practices have evolved. We were asked to develop statistically-based predictions for the lifetimes of an energy company's fleet of high-voltage transmission and distribution transformers. The company's data records begin in 1980, providing information on installation and failure dates of transformers. Although the dataset contains many units that were installed before 1980, there is no information about units that were installed and failed before 1980. Thus, the data are left truncated and right censored. We use a parametric lifetime model to describe the lifetime distribution of individual transformers. We develop a statistical procedure, based on age-adjusted life distributions, for computing a prediction interval for remaining life for individual transformers now in service. We then extend these ideas to provide predictions and prediction intervals for the cumulative number of failures, over a range of time, for the overall fleet of transformers.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/00-AOAS231 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Economic Modeling of Compressed Air Energy Storage

Due to the variable nature of wind resources, the increasing penetration level of wind power will have a significant impact on the operation and planning of the electric power system. Energy storage systems are considered an effective way to compensate for the variability of wind generation. This paper presents a detailed production cost simulation model to evaluate the economic value of compressed air energy storage (CAES) in systems with large-scale wind power generation. The co-optimization of energy and ancillary services markets is implemented in order to analyze the impacts of CAES, not only on energy supply, but also on system operating reserves. Both hourly and 5-minute simulations are considered to capture the economic performance of CAES in the day-ahead (DA) and real-time (RT) markets. The generalized network flow formulation is used to model the characteristics of CAES in detail. The proposed model is applied on a modified IEEE 24-bus reliability test system. The numerical example shows that besides the economic benefits gained through energy arbitrage in the DA market, CAES can also generate significant profits by providing reserves, compensating for wind forecast errors and intra-hour fluctuation, and participating in the RT market

Pilot trial of fk 506 in the management of steroid-resistant nephrotic syndrome

Seven patients with steroid-resistant nephrotic syndrome were treated with FK 506 monotherapy. Four patients were children with focal sclerosing glomerulonephritis (FSGS). Three of these had evldence for chronic progressive renal disease consisting of interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy on pretreatment renal biopsies. Two patients had also failed cyclosporin A (CsA), two cyclophosphamide, and one chlorambucil prior to treatment with FK 506. Three patients were adults wlth mesangial proliferative. membranoproliferative, and membranous glomerulonephritis. Three patterns of response were noted: (1) a reduction in proteinuria to normal levels, (2) partial response (50% reduction) or; (3) no improvement. All patients except one experienced at least a 50% reduction in protein excretion at some time during FK 506 therapy. Two of the children and one adult reduced protein excretion to essentially normal values. One patient had no sustained reduction In Droteln excretion and is considered to be a treatment fallure, although her protein excretion was approximately 50% of pretreatment values intermittently. The drug was generally well tolerated. The most common side-effect was nephrotoxlclty, whlch was reversible. These encouraging results suggest that FK 506 monotherapy may be effective in controlling the proteinuria of somc patlents with steroid-resistant nephrotic syndrome The use of this drug may extend our understanding of the role of T lymphocytes and cytokines in the pathogenesls of glomerulonephritis. Further study of this agent In a larger population of patlents is warranted. © 1993 European Dialysis and Transplant Assoiation-European Renal Association

Persuading consumers to reduce their consumption of electricity in the home

Previous work has identified that providing real time feedback or interventions to consumers can persuade consumers to change behaviour and reduce domestic electricity consumption. However, little work has investigated what exactly those feedback mechanisms should be. Most past work is based on an in-home display unit, possibly complemented by lower tariffs and delayed use of non-essential home appliances such as washing machines. In this paper we focus on four methods for real time feedback on domestic energy use, developed to gauge the impact on energy consumption in homes. Their feasibility had been tested using an experimental setup of 24 households collecting minute-by-minute electricity consumption data readings over a period of 18 months. Initial results are mixed, and point to the difficulties of sustaining a reduction in energy consumption, i.e. persuading consumers to change their behaviour. Some of the methods we used exploit small group social dynamics whereby people want to conform to social norms within groups they identify with. It may be that a variety of feedback mechanisms and interventions are needed in order to sustain user interest

Lightweight, Rack-Mountable Composite Cold Plate/Shelves

Rack-mountable composite-material structural components that would serve as both shelves and cold plates for removing heat from electronic or other equipment mounted on the shelves have been proposed as lightweight alternatives to all-metal cold plate/shelves now in use. A proposed cold plate/shelf would include a highly thermally conductive face sheet containing oriented graphite fibers bonded to an aluminum honeycomb core, plus an extruded stainless-steel substructure containing optimized flow passages for a cooling fluid, and an inlet and outlet that could be connected to standard manifold sections. To maximize heat-transfer efficiency, the extruded stainless-steel substructure would be connected directly to the face sheet. On the basis of a tentative design, the proposed composite cold plate/shelf would weigh about 38 percent less than does an all-aluminum cold plate in use or planned for use in some spacecraft and possibly aircraft. Although weight is a primary consideration, the tentative design offers the additional benefit of reduction of thickness to half that of the all-aluminum version

Affordances, constraints and information flows as ‘leverage points’ in design for sustainable behaviour

Copyright @ 2012 Social Science Electronic PublishingTwo of Donella Meadows' 'leverage points' for intervening in systems (1999) seem particularly pertinent to design for sustainable behaviour, in the sense that designers may have the scope to implement them in (re-)designing everyday products and services. The 'rules of the system' -- interpreted here to refer to affordances and constraints -- and the structure of information flows both offer a range of opportunities for design interventions to in fluence behaviour change, and in this paper, some of the implications and possibilities are discussed with reference to parallel concepts from within design, HCI and relevant areas of psychology