Effects of ignorance and information on judgments and decisions

We compared Turkish and English students’ soccer forecasting for English soccer matches. Although the Turkish students knew very little about English soccer, they selected teams on the basis of familiarity with the team (or its identified city); their prediction success was surprisingly similar to knowledgeable English students—consistent with Goldstein and Gigerenzer’s (1999; 2002) characterization of the recognition heuristic. The Turkish students made forecasts for some of the matches with additional information—the half-time scores. In this and a further study, where British students predicting matches for foreign teams could choose whether or not to use half-time information, we found that predictions that could be made by recognition alone were influenced by the half-time information. We consider the implications of these findings in the context of Goldstein and Gigerenzer’s (2002, p. 82) suggestion that “. . . no other information can reverse the choice determined by recognition” and a recent more qualified statement (Gigerenzer & Goldstein, 2011

Stone Quarries and Sourcing in the Carolina Slate Belt

Research Report No. 25, Research Laboratories of Archaeology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Reports in this series discuss the findings of archaeological excavations and research projects undertaken by the RLA between 1984 and present

Unified N=2 Maxwell-Einstein and Yang-Mills-Einstein Supergravity Theories in Four Dimensions

We study unified N=2 Maxwell-Einstein supergravity theories (MESGTs) and unified Yang-Mills Einstein supergravity theories (YMESGTs) in four dimensions. As their defining property, these theories admit the action of a global or local symmetry group that is (i) simple, and (ii) acts irreducibly on all the vector fields of the theory, including the ``graviphoton''. Restricting ourselves to the theories that originate from five dimensions via dimensional reduction, we find that the generic Jordan family of MESGTs with the scalar manifolds [SU(1,1)/U(1)] X [SO(2,n)/SO(2)X SO(n)] are all unified in four dimensions with the unifying global symmetry group SO(2,n). Of these theories only one can be gauged so as to obtain a unified YMESGT with the gauge group SO(2,1). Three of the four magical supergravity theories defined by simple Euclidean Jordan algebras of degree 3 are unified MESGTs in four dimensions. Two of these can furthermore be gauged so as to obtain 4D unified YMESGTs with gauge groups SO(3,2) and SO(6,2), respectively. The generic non-Jordan family and the theories whose scalar manifolds are homogeneous but not symmetric do not lead to unified MESGTs in four dimensions. The three infinite families of unified five-dimensional MESGTs defined by simple Lorentzian Jordan algebras, whose scalar manifolds are non-homogeneous, do not lead directly to unified MESGTs in four dimensions under dimensional reduction. However, since their manifolds are non-homogeneous we are not able to completely rule out the existence of symplectic sections in which these theories become unified in four dimensions.Comment: 47 pages; latex fil

1-(4-Chloro­phen­yl)-2-[(3-phenyl­isoquinolin-1-yl)sulfan­yl]ethanone

The title compound, C23H16ClNOS, exhibits dihedral angles of 11.73 (1) and 66.07 (1)°, respectively, between the mean plane of the isoquinoline system and the attached phenyl ring, and between the isoquinoline system and the chloro­phenyl ring. The dihedral angle between the phenyl and chlorophenyl rings is 54.66 (1)°

Event-based camera refractory period characterization and initial clock drift evaluation

Event-based camera (EBC) technology provides high-dynamic range operation and shows promise for efficient capture of spatio-temporal information, producing a sparse data stream and enabling consideration of nontraditional data processing solutions (e.g., new algorithms, neuromorphic processors, etc.). Given the fundamental difference in camera architecture, the EBC response and noise behavior differ considerably compared to standard CCD/CMOS framing sensors. These differences necessitate the development of new characterization techniques and sensor models to evaluate hardware performance and elucidate the trade-space between the two camera architectures. Laboratory characterization techniques reported previously include noise level as a function of static scene light level (background activity) and contrast responses referred to as S-curves. Here we present further progress on development of basic characterization methods and test capabilities for commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) visible EBCs, with a focus on measurement of pixel deadtime (refractory period) including results for the 4th-generation sensor from Prophesee and Sony. Refractory period is empirically determined from analysis of the interspike intervals (ISIs), and results visualized using log-histograms of the minimum per-pixel ISI values for a subset of pixels activated by a controlled dynamic scene. Our tests of the Prophesee gen4 EVKv2 yield refractory period estimates ranging from 6.1 msec to 6.8 μsec going from the slowest (20) to fastest (100) settings of the relevant bias parameter, bias_refr. We also introduce and demonstrate the concept of pixel bandwidth measurement from data captured while viewing a static scene – based on recording data at a range of refractory period setting and then analyzing noise-event statistics. Finally, we present initial results for estimating and correcting EBC clock drift using a GPS PPS signal to generate special timing events in the event-list data streams generated by the DAVIS346 and DVXplorer EBCs from iniVation

Substance Use Prevention Services in Juvenile Justice and Behavioral Health: Results from a National Survey

BACKGROUND: This study examined the national availability of substance use prevention (SUP) within juvenile justice (JJ) and their primary behavioral health (BH) providers, and the relationships between the availability of SUP and agency-level measures of organizational structure, staffing, and youth characteristics. A three-stage national probability sampling process was used to select participants for a national survey that included, among other facets of community supervision (CS) and BH practices, questions on agency characteristics, youth characteristics, whether the agency/provider directly provided SUP services, and whether the agency/provider directly provided substance use and/or mental health treatment. This paper focuses on SUP services along with agency/provider and youth characteristics related to providing SUP. RESULTS: The response rate for both CS agencies (n = 195) and BH providers (n = 271) was 96%. Complex samples logistic regression initially examined univariate associations of each variable and identified candidates for a final multivariate model. Overall, only one-third of CS and BH providers reported offering SUP services, with BH providers being significantly more likely than CS agencies to provide SUP services. In addition, likelihood of SUP was significantly lower among agencies where the substance use distribution of the caseload was below the median. Controlling for master\u27s level staff and the substance use distribution, CS agencies were about 67% less likely to offer SUP when compared to BH providers. CONCLUSIONS: Given the high rates of substance use among justice-involved youth and that substance use is an established risk for several negative behaviors, outcomes, and health conditions, these findings suggest that evidence-based prevention services should likely be expanded in justice settings, and perhaps included as part of CS programs, even when youth do not initially present with SU service needs

Stable de Sitter vacua in N=2, D=5 supergravity

We find 5D gauged supergravity theories exhibiting stable de Sitter vacua. These are the first examples of stable de Sitter vacua in higher-dimensional (D>4) supergravity. Non-compact gaugings with tensor multiplets and R-symmetry gauging seem to be the essential ingredients in these models. They are however not sufficient to guarantee stable de Sitter vacua, as we show by investigating several other models. The qualitative behaviour of the potential also seems to depend crucially on the geometry of the scalar manifold.Comment: 26 pages, v2:typos corrected, published versio

Genotype-phenotype and outcome associations in patients with Fanconi anemia: the National Cancer Institute cohort

Fanconi anemia (FA) is caused by pathogenic variants in the FA/BRCA DNA repair pathway genes, and is characterized by congenital abnormalities, bone marrow failure (BMF) and increased cancer risk. We conducted a genotype-phenotype and outcomes study of 203 patients with FA in our cohort. We compared across the genes, FA/BRCA DNA repair pathways (upstream, ID complex and downstream), and type of pathogenic variants (hypomorphic or null). We explored differences between the patients evaluated in our clinic (clinic cohort) and those who provided data remotely (field cohort). Patients with variants in upstream complex pathway had less severe phenotype [lacked VACTERL-H (Vertebral, Anal, Cardiac, Trachea-esophageal fistula, Esophageal/duodenal atresia, Renal, Limb, Hydrocephalus) association and/or PHENOS (Pigmentation, small-Head, small-Eyes, Neurologic, Otologic, Short stature) features]. ID complex was associated with VACTERL-H. The clinic cohort had more PHENOS features than the field cohort. PHENOS was associated with increased risk of BMF, and VACTERL-H with hypothyroidism. The cumulative incidence of severe BMF was 70%, solid tumors (ST) 20% and leukemia 6.5% as the first event. Head and neck and gynecological cancers were the most common ST, with further increased risk after hematopoietic cell transplantation. Among patients with FANCA, variants in exons 27-30 were associated with higher frequency of ST. Overall median survival was 37 years; patients with leukemia or FANCD1/BRCA2 variants had poorest survival. Patients with variants in the upstream complex had better survival than ID or downstream complex (p=0.001 and 0.016, respectively). FA is phenotypically and genotypically heterogeneous; detailed characterization provides new insights towards understanding this complex syndrome and guiding clinical management

Counting and effective rigidity in algebra and geometry

The purpose of this article is to produce effective versions of some rigidity results in algebra and geometry. On the geometric side, we focus on the spectrum of primitive geodesic lengths (resp., complex lengths) for arithmetic hyperbolic 2-manifolds (resp., 3-manifolds). By work of Reid, this spectrum determines the commensurability class of the 2-manifold (resp., 3-manifold). We establish effective versions of these rigidity results by ensuring that, for two incommensurable arithmetic manifolds of bounded volume, the length sets (resp., the complex length sets) must disagree for a length that can be explicitly bounded as a function of volume. We also prove an effective version of a similar rigidity result established by the second author with Reid on a surface analog of the length spectrum for hyperbolic 3-manifolds. These effective results have corresponding algebraic analogs involving maximal subfields and quaternion subalgebras of quaternion algebras. To prove these effective rigidity results, we establish results on the asymptotic behavior of certain algebraic and geometric counting functions which are of independent interest.Comment: v.2, 39 pages. To appear in Invent. Mat